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CHAPTER 4compared with 0.7 per cent in NSW and Victoria, 0.2 per cent in South Australia and1.2 per cent in Western Australia.As mentioned in Chapter 2, forecasts of international containerised trade are derived onthe basis of total containerised trade and three years average proportions of internationalcontainerised trade in total containerised trade. The three years average proportionsindicate that international containerised trade accounts for 97.9 per cent of full containerexports, 93.5 per cent of empty container exports, 96.3 per cent of full container importsand 80.3 per cent of empty container imports. International containerised tradeincreased by 10.2 per cent a year in the last five years and is expected to increaseannually by 7.5 per cent over the next twenty years, from 688 000 teus in 2004-05 to 2.9million teus in 2024-25 (Table 4.2).Shippers are using more and more 40-foot containers for exports and imports. Thenumber of 40-foot containers will rise more rapidly (8.5 per cent) than the number of20-foot containers (5.5 per cent) over the forecast period (Table 4.3). This is a reflectionof higher expected growth in full container imports than in full container exports.In 2004-05, Brisbane Port recorded a total of 873 container ship visits. With expectedhigh growth in containerised trade and relatively small increase in ship sizes, thenumber of container ship visits is expected to increase by 6.4 per cent a year over thenext twenty years to around 3 000 visits in 2024-25 (Table 4.3).Non-containerised trade and ship visitsBrisbane Port’s total non-containerised trade was 19.8 million tonnes in 2004-05,including 7.8 million tonnes of exports and 12.0 million tonnes of imports (Figure 4.3and Table 4.4).Non-containerised exports declined by 0.1 per cent a year in the last five years, whereasnon-containerised imports increased by 2.4 per cent a year during the same period. As aresult, the total non-containerised trade increased by 1.4 per cent a year during the sameperiod. The decline in the non-containerised exports resulted from a decline in export ofgrains, cotton seeds, silica sand and woodchips, and an increased usage of containers toship grains to overseas markets. Trade in silica sand has declined from 500 to 200tonnes per year.Non-containerised exports are forecast to increase by 0.5 per cent a year during theforecast period to 8.6 million tonnes in 2024-25. On the other hand, non-containerisedimports are expected to increase by 3.8 per cent a year during the same period to 25.2million tonnes in 2024-25.33
TABLE 4.2 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AND IMPORTS: BRISBANEPORTYear Exports Imports TotalFull Empty Total Full Empty Total trade('000 teus)1999-00 176 33 209 156 57 213 4222000-01 189 30 219 150 64 214 4322001-02 195 36 231 170 58 228 4592002-03 189 85 274 216 54 270 5452003-04 200 102 302 247 47 294 5962004-05 222 126 349 282 57 339 6882005-06 237 134 371 296 60 356 7272006-07 277 146 422 317 62 379 8012007-08 297 167 464 363 65 427 8912008-09 321 179 500 397 67 464 9642009-10 347 189 536 416 68 484 1 0202010-11 371 208 578 448 70 518 1 0962011-12 391 231 622 488 72 559 1 1812012-13 419 248 668 517 73 590 1 2582013-14 453 272 725 556 75 631 1 3572014-15 479 298 777 598 77 675 1 4522015-16 506 326 833 643 78 722 1 5542016-17 536 357 893 692 80 772 1 6652017-18 566 391 958 744 82 825 1 7832018-19 599 429 1 028 799 83 883 1 9112019-20 633 469 1 103 860 85 945 2 0482020-21 670 514 1 184 924 87 1 011 2 1952021-22 708 563 1 271 994 89 1 083 2 3542022-23 749 617 1 366 1 068 91 1 159 2 5252023-24 792 675 1 467 1 149 93 1 242 2 7092024-25 838 739 1 577 1 235 95 1 330 2 907Annual average growth rate (per cent)1994-95 to 1999-00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA1999-00 to 2004-05 4.8 30.4 10.8 12.5 0.1 9.7 10.22004-05 to 2024-25 6.9 9.2 7.8 7.7 2.5 7.1 7.5NA = Not available.*Numbers in Italic and bold are estimates and forecasts.34
Page 2 and 3:
Bureau of Transport and Regional Ec
Page 4:
FOREWORDThis report presents the na
Page 7 and 8:
Other ships........................
Page 9 and 10:
Table 4.3Table 4.4Proportion of 40-
Page 11 and 12: Table I.3Estimated regression stati
Page 13 and 14: Figure 4.12Figure 4.13Non-container
Page 16 and 17: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBACKGROUNDInternat
Page 18 and 19: to 52 to 55 per cent in Brisbane, S
Page 20 and 21: containerised trade is forecast to
Page 22 and 23: next twenty years to 12.6 million t
Page 24 and 25: The total containerised trade of Po
Page 26 and 27: Other ports‘Other ports’ in thi
Page 28: CRUISE SHIPPING FORECASTSAustralia
Page 31 and 32: elation to the movement of containe
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER 2 FREIGHT FORECASTING MODEL
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.1 CONTAINERISED T
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.3 NON-CONTAINERIS
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER 2The exchange rate variable
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER 2volume of containerised im
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER 2appreciation (depreciation
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 2exports by 0.2 per cent in
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 2on the price of sea travel
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 3 FREIGHT MODELLING DATA AN
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 3containerised imports, but
Page 54 and 55: CHAPTER 3containers which are suita
Page 56: CHAPTER 3Non-container vessel sizeT
Page 59 and 60: agricultural commodities fell becau
Page 61: container imports and 2.5 per cent
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 4.3 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE,
Page 67 and 68: PBC is also developing an additiona
Page 69 and 70: FIGURE 4.4 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 71 and 72: TABLE 4.6CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AND
Page 73 and 74: TABLE 4.8 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CON
Page 75 and 76: TABLE 4.9 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TRA
Page 77 and 78: increase by 1.3 per cent a year ove
Page 79 and 80: FIGURE 4.7 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 81 and 82: per cent), Hong Kong (4.4 per cent)
Page 83 and 84: TABLE 4.13 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
Page 85 and 86: the Australian economy and the depr
Page 87 and 88: facilitate the movement of containe
Page 89 and 90: FIGURE 4.11 CONTAINERISED TRADE, 19
Page 91 and 92: TABLE 4.17 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 93 and 94: 55.3 per cent in 2003-04 largely du
Page 95 and 96: TABLE 4.20 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 97 and 98: it accounts for 15 per cent of outb
Page 99 and 100: TABLE 4.21 CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AN
Page 103 and 104: TABLE 4.24 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 105 and 106: The capacity of Fremantle Port will
Page 107 and 108: 2024-25, whereas international non-
Page 111 and 112: TABLE 4.29 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 113 and 114:
25. International containerised exp
Page 115 and 116:
TABLE 4.32 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 117 and 118:
FIGURE 4.19 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE
Page 119 and 120:
TABLE 4.35 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 122 and 123:
CHAPTER 5 FORECASTS OF CRUISE PASSE
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Chapter 5Cruising typesThe cruising
Page 126 and 127:
Chapter 510.0 per cent each and the
Page 128 and 129:
Chapter 5Similarly, ship capacity o
Page 130 and 131:
Chapter 5FIGURE 5.3 SHORT-TERM SEA
Page 132 and 133:
APPENDIX IESTIMATED REGRESSION STAT
Page 134 and 135:
APPENDIX IITABLE I.3Variable by por
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138:
Page 141 and 142:
DVB 2004, The Cruise Industry and i
Page 144:
ABBREVIATIONSABS Australian Bureau
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