PDF: 1336 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...
PDF: 1336 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...
PDF: 1336 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...
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FIGURE 2.2 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERISED TRADE FORECASTING FRAMEWORKFull containerexports (teus)Proportion <strong>of</strong>internationaltrade in fullcontainer exportsEmpty containerexports (teus)Proportion <strong>of</strong>internationaltrade in emptycontainer exportsFull containerimports (teus)Proportion <strong>of</strong>internationaltrade in fullcontainer importsEmpty containerimports (teus)Proportion <strong>of</strong>internationaltrade in emptycontainer importsInternationalfull containerexports (teus)Internationalempty containerexports (teus)Internationalfull containerimports (teus)Internationalempty containerimports (teus)Totalinternationalcontainerisedtrade (teus)Further, the total containerised trade forecasts <strong>and</strong> the three years average proportions <strong>of</strong>international containerised trade from 2001-02 to 2003-04 are used to derive forecasts<strong>of</strong> international containerised trade (Figure 2.2). The average proportions are assumedto remain constant over the forecast period. This constant proportional method <strong>of</strong>converting total containerised trade into international containerised trade is simple touse <strong>and</strong> statistically valid on the grounds that the proportions <strong>of</strong> internationalcontainerised trade are relatively high (Table 2.1). This means that the growth rateforecasts <strong>of</strong> the total trade reflect the expected growth rate <strong>of</strong> international trade.8