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CHAPTER 4 FORECASTS OF CONTAINER AND SHIPMOVEMENTSINTRODUCTIONForecasts of container and ship movements presented in this study are based ondemandside parameters only. Supplyside parameters are not included because of thedifficulty in estimating them as a result of the lack of long time-series data onsupplyside variables influencing port activities. However, the forecasts have beenadjusted qualitatively to take into account the influence of supplyside variables. Theport and national level forecasts are presented below.BRISBANE PORTThe Port of Brisbane is Australia’s third largest container port. It is managed by the Portof Brisbane Corporation (PBC) which was established on 1 July 1994 under theGovernment Owned Corporation Act 1993.The Port of Brisbane contributes $770 million to the Queensland economy andgenerates 10 000 direct and indirect jobs (PBC 2004). The value of its internationaltrade was over $19.4 billion in 2002-03 (PBC 2004).In 2004-05, the total trade of Brisbane Port increased by 3.7 per cent to 26.0 milliontonnes with containerised trade increasing by 13.5 per cent to 726 000 teus (PBC 2005).Containerised trade accounts for a large proportion of the trade revenue, whereas noncontainerisedcargoes, such as oil and coal, play a crucial role in the movement of shipsin Brisbane Port.Exports and imports account for 43.1 and 56.9 per cent of the total trade volumerespectively. The main export commodities of this port are coal (33.1 per cent), refinedoil (19.4 per cent), cereals (8.5 per cent), meat products (6.1 per cent) and iron and steel(2.6 per cent). The main import commodities are crude oil (51.9 per cent), cement (11.1per cent), refined oil (6.0 per cent), iron and steel (3.1 per cent) and building products(2.9 per cent) (PBC 2005).The performance of the export sector was not encouraging in 2003-04. It increased bymerely 0.02 per cent in terms of volume. This largely resulted from a decline in coal andagricultural exports. Coal exports declined by 12.9 per cent possibly owing to theappreciation of the Australian dollar against overseas currencies. The export of29
agricultural commodities fell because of the nationwide drought. However, the exportsector performed well in 2004-05 with export volume increasing by 3.7 per cent to 11.2million tonnes.On the other hand, commodity imports to Brisbane Port increased by 3.3 per cent in2003-04 and 3.8 per cent in 2004-05, mainly as a result of an increase in the import ofrefined oil, cement, building products, and iron and steel increased following acontinuous growth in the housing and building industries.North Asia and South East Asia accounted for 25.4 and 22.3 per cent of the total tradeof Brisbane Port respectively followed by Australian coasts (20.4 per cent), East Asia(7.0 per cent), South Pacific Islands (6.0 per cent), Gulf and Middle East (6.7 per cent),New Zealand (3.8 per cent), North America (2.0 per cent), Europe (2.0 per cent),Mediterranean (1.1 per cent), South Asia (0.8 per cent) and other regions (2.5 per cent)(PBC 2005).Non-containerised trade consists of heavy and low-value commodities, whereascontainerised trade consists of lighter and high-value commodities (Figure 4.1). In2003-04, although non-containerised trade accounted for 64 per cent of outbound seatrade volume and 74 per cent of inbound sea trade volume, it was only 14 per cent ofoutbound sea trade value and 25 per cent of inbound sea trade value.FIGURE 4.1 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND AND INBOUND SEA TRADE VOLUME ANDVALUE, 2003-04: BRISBANE PORT100Outbound sea freight100Inbound sea freightCargo share (per cent)755025Cargo share (per cent)7550250VolumeValue0VolumeValueContainerisedNon-containerisedContainerisedNon-containerisedContainerised trade and ship visitsTotal containerised trade increased by 10.9 per cent a year in the last five years to 726000 teus in 2004-05. The high growth in containerised trade is influenced by an increasein movements of commodities between assembly plants, growing development activitiesin South East Queensland and high growth in international trade (8.5 per cent in tradewith China). The high import growth is largely due to high growth in building and30
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Bureau of Transport and Regional Ec
Page 4:
FOREWORDThis report presents the na
Page 7 and 8: Other ships........................
Page 9 and 10: Table 4.3Table 4.4Proportion of 40-
Page 11 and 12: Table I.3Estimated regression stati
Page 13 and 14: Figure 4.12Figure 4.13Non-container
Page 16 and 17: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBACKGROUNDInternat
Page 18 and 19: to 52 to 55 per cent in Brisbane, S
Page 20 and 21: containerised trade is forecast to
Page 22 and 23: next twenty years to 12.6 million t
Page 24 and 25: The total containerised trade of Po
Page 26 and 27: Other ports‘Other ports’ in thi
Page 28: CRUISE SHIPPING FORECASTSAustralia
Page 31 and 32: elation to the movement of containe
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER 2 FREIGHT FORECASTING MODEL
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.1 CONTAINERISED T
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.3 NON-CONTAINERIS
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER 2The exchange rate variable
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER 2volume of containerised im
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER 2appreciation (depreciation
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 2exports by 0.2 per cent in
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 2on the price of sea travel
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 3 FREIGHT MODELLING DATA AN
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 3containerised imports, but
Page 54 and 55: CHAPTER 3containers which are suita
Page 56: CHAPTER 3Non-container vessel sizeT
Page 61 and 62: container imports and 2.5 per cent
Page 63 and 64: TABLE 4.2 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERIS
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 4.3 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE,
Page 67 and 68: PBC is also developing an additiona
Page 69 and 70: FIGURE 4.4 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 71 and 72: TABLE 4.6CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AND
Page 73 and 74: TABLE 4.8 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CON
Page 75 and 76: TABLE 4.9 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TRA
Page 77 and 78: increase by 1.3 per cent a year ove
Page 79 and 80: FIGURE 4.7 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 81 and 82: per cent), Hong Kong (4.4 per cent)
Page 83 and 84: TABLE 4.13 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
Page 85 and 86: the Australian economy and the depr
Page 87 and 88: facilitate the movement of containe
Page 89 and 90: FIGURE 4.11 CONTAINERISED TRADE, 19
Page 91 and 92: TABLE 4.17 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 93 and 94: 55.3 per cent in 2003-04 largely du
Page 95 and 96: TABLE 4.20 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 97 and 98: it accounts for 15 per cent of outb
Page 99 and 100: TABLE 4.21 CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AN
Page 101 and 102: TABLE 4.23 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
Page 103 and 104: TABLE 4.24 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 105 and 106: The capacity of Fremantle Port will
Page 107 and 108:
2024-25, whereas international non-
Page 109 and 110:
TABLE 4.28 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
Page 111 and 112:
TABLE 4.29 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 113 and 114:
25. International containerised exp
Page 115 and 116:
TABLE 4.32 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 117 and 118:
FIGURE 4.19 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE
Page 119 and 120:
TABLE 4.35 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 122 and 123:
CHAPTER 5 FORECASTS OF CRUISE PASSE
Page 124 and 125:
Chapter 5Cruising typesThe cruising
Page 126 and 127:
Chapter 510.0 per cent each and the
Page 128 and 129:
Chapter 5Similarly, ship capacity o
Page 130 and 131:
Chapter 5FIGURE 5.3 SHORT-TERM SEA
Page 132 and 133:
APPENDIX IESTIMATED REGRESSION STAT
Page 134 and 135:
APPENDIX IITABLE I.3Variable by por
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138:
Page 141 and 142:
DVB 2004, The Cruise Industry and i
Page 144:
ABBREVIATIONSABS Australian Bureau
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