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CHAPTER 4Unlike the non-containerised exports, Sydney’s non-containerised imports will continueto rise over the next twenty years, largely due to the expected positive outlook for theAustralian economy. They are forecast to increase by 1.6 per cent a year during theperiod, from 13.7 million tonnes in 2004-05 to 18.8 million tonnes in 2024-25.International non-containerised trade accounts for 63.3 per cent of the non-containerisedexports and 66.7 per cent of the non-containerised imports. It declined by 7.2 per cent ayear in the last five years, from 14.0 million tonnes in 1999-2000 to 9.6 million tonnesin 2004-05 (Table 4.10). However, it is forecast toTABLE 4.10 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TRADE: SYDNEY PORTSYear Export Import Total('000 tonnes)1999-00 886 13 138 14 0242000-01 1 082 13 412 14 4942001-02 775 11 450 12 2242002-03 251 6 981 7 2322003-04 367 7 627 7 9942004-05 515 9 129 9 6442005-06 457 9 142 9 5982006-07 412 9 222 9 6342007-08 364 9 658 10 0232008-09 323 9 924 10 2472009-10 288 9 925 10 2132010-11 255 10 091 10 3462011-12 225 10 299 10 5242012-13 200 10 400 10 6002013-14 177 10 565 10 7422014-15 156 10 730 10 8862015-16 138 10 897 11 0352016-17 122 11 066 11 1882017-18 108 11 238 11 3462018-19 95 11 413 11 5082019-20 84 11 591 11 6752020-21 74 11 771 11 8452021-22 66 11 954 12 0202022-23 58 12 140 12 1982023-24 51 12 329 12 3802024-25 45 12 521 12 566Annual average growth rate (per cent)1994-95 to 1999-00 -3.7 3.8 3.21999-00 to 2004-05 -10.3 -7.0 -7.22004-05 to 2024-25 -11.4 1.6 1.3*Numbers in Italic and bold are estimates and forecasts.47
increase by 1.3 per cent a year over the next twenty years to 12.6 million tonnes in2024-25 because of expected annual growth of 1.6 per cent in non-containerisedimports. Non-containerised exports will continue to decline by 11.4 per cent a yearduring the period to 45 000 tonnes in 2024-25.In 2004-05, around 1 700 visits were made by non-container ships at Sydney Ports. Thenumber of non-container ship visits increased by 1.1 per cent a year in the last five yearsand it is forecast to increase by 0.3 per cent a year in the next twenty years to around 1800 visits in 2024-25 (Table 4.9).Port capacityFollowing the expected high growth in containerised trade, demand for port facilities atSydney Ports will rise significantly over the forecast period. The current capacity ofSydney Ports may not be enough to handle substantial increase in containerised trade.Port Botany is expected to reach its full capacity in 2010. Hence, its capacity needs tobe increased to facilitate the movement of containers and ships in the future. SPC isaddressing this issue through its ‘First Port Future Port’ strategy. The successfulimplementation of the strategy will help to overcome the capacity problem at SydneyPorts. One of the major initiatives under the strategy is the proposed 60-hectare PortBotany expansion plan. On its completion the plan will increase container handlingfacilities at Port Botany over the forecast period.In Sydney, there are four small intermodal terminals in operation. SPC is planning tobuild large intermodal terminals in Enfield, Macarthur and Western Sydney to reducethe current congestion level on roads linking to Port Botany. Since these terminals willbe linked to Port Botany by rail, they are expected to increase the current rail share incontainer movements to and from Port Botany. These new terminals are expected tocommence their operation after 2010 when Port Botany is likely to reach its fullcapacity.Around 20 per cent of all containers are currently moved by rail. SPC is aiming toincrease the rail share to around 40 per cent by 2025. For this, it is planning to operaterail services on the existing rail lines that go through Villawood and connect to mainlinkages. It is also planning to move containers to Campbelltown by train.Higher imports than exports and the limited use of import containers for exports haveresulted in many empty containers being stored at and nearby Sydney Ports prior to theirexport. Full container imports are forecast to be higher than full container exports atSydney Ports over the next twenty years. This is likely to put pressure on the existingempty containers storage facility. SPC is seeking an approval from the NSW StateGovernment to purchase the State Rail Authority’s Cooks River rail yard to manageempty containers. This will help SPC to reduce the number of empty containers storedat Botany Bay and increase space for full containers.The introduction of a weekly service of the P&O Nedlloyd and ContshipContainerlines’ 4 100 teus class vessels on Australia’s international routes to NewZealand, East Coast USA and Europe in 2002-03 is expected to increase Sydney Ports’48
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Bureau of Transport and Regional Ec
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FOREWORDThis report presents the na
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Other ships........................
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Table 4.3Table 4.4Proportion of 40-
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Table I.3Estimated regression stati
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Figure 4.12Figure 4.13Non-container
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBACKGROUNDInternat
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to 52 to 55 per cent in Brisbane, S
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containerised trade is forecast to
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next twenty years to 12.6 million t
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The total containerised trade of Po
Page 26 and 27: Other ports‘Other ports’ in thi
Page 28: CRUISE SHIPPING FORECASTSAustralia
Page 31 and 32: elation to the movement of containe
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER 2 FREIGHT FORECASTING MODEL
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.1 CONTAINERISED T
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.3 NON-CONTAINERIS
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER 2The exchange rate variable
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER 2volume of containerised im
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER 2appreciation (depreciation
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 2exports by 0.2 per cent in
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 2on the price of sea travel
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 3 FREIGHT MODELLING DATA AN
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 3containerised imports, but
Page 54 and 55: CHAPTER 3containers which are suita
Page 56: CHAPTER 3Non-container vessel sizeT
Page 59 and 60: agricultural commodities fell becau
Page 61 and 62: container imports and 2.5 per cent
Page 63 and 64: TABLE 4.2 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERIS
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 4.3 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE,
Page 67 and 68: PBC is also developing an additiona
Page 69 and 70: FIGURE 4.4 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 71 and 72: TABLE 4.6CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AND
Page 73 and 74: TABLE 4.8 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CON
Page 75: TABLE 4.9 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TRA
Page 79 and 80: FIGURE 4.7 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 81 and 82: per cent), Hong Kong (4.4 per cent)
Page 83 and 84: TABLE 4.13 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
Page 85 and 86: the Australian economy and the depr
Page 87 and 88: facilitate the movement of containe
Page 89 and 90: FIGURE 4.11 CONTAINERISED TRADE, 19
Page 91 and 92: TABLE 4.17 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 93 and 94: 55.3 per cent in 2003-04 largely du
Page 95 and 96: TABLE 4.20 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 97 and 98: it accounts for 15 per cent of outb
Page 99 and 100: TABLE 4.21 CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AN
Page 103 and 104: TABLE 4.24 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 105 and 106: The capacity of Fremantle Port will
Page 107 and 108: 2024-25, whereas international non-
Page 111 and 112: TABLE 4.29 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 113 and 114: 25. International containerised exp
Page 115 and 116: TABLE 4.32 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 117 and 118: FIGURE 4.19 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE
Page 119 and 120: TABLE 4.35 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 122 and 123: CHAPTER 5 FORECASTS OF CRUISE PASSE
Page 124 and 125: Chapter 5Cruising typesThe cruising
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Chapter 510.0 per cent each and the
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Chapter 5Similarly, ship capacity o
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Chapter 5FIGURE 5.3 SHORT-TERM SEA
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APPENDIX IESTIMATED REGRESSION STAT
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APPENDIX IITABLE I.3Variable by por
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DVB 2004, The Cruise Industry and i
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ABBREVIATIONSABS Australian Bureau
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