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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBACKGROUNDInternational shipping has remained the main mode of transporting exports and importsin Australia. In 2003-04, Australia’s total international trade in commodities was 623.1million tonnes (worth $248.5 billion) of which sea freight accounted for 99.9 per cent ofthe total trade.Following the September 11 terrorist attacks in the USA, the Bali bombings, the Madridbombing and more recently, the London bombings, there are security concerns inrelation to the movement of containers and ships on Australia’s coastal and internationalshipping routes. Information on the movement of containers and ships is vital for theplanning and implementation of security measures at the Australian ports. Hence, thisstudy provides forecasts of container and ship movements through Australian ports overthe next twenty years.FREIGHT FORECASTING MODELSSince the movement of containers and ships depends on the volume of exports andimports, econometric models of commodity export and import demand have been usedto forecast the movement of containers and freight ships at the national and port level.The models are specified in terms of real income, population and exchange rates and areestimated using annual historical data. The port level forecasts are developed forAustralia’s five main city ports (Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Fremantle)and, in aggregation, ‘other ports’ (that is, all Australian ports excluding these five maincity ports). These five ports presently account for about 89.9 per cent of the totalcontainerised trade.Forecasts of ship movements are presented for container ships, non-container ships,cruise ships and ‘other ships’ which include ships such as survey ships, navy ships andtugs.Forecasts of container and container ship movements are derived using a three-stepforecasting procedure. In the first step, econometric models are used to forecast exportand import of full and empty containers measured in teus. The export and import of fulland empty containers are then added to derive total containerised trade in teus. In thesecond step, the total containerised trade measured in Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units(teus) is further converted into 40-foot and 20-foot container numbers using theproportion of 40-foot containers in the total number of containers exchanged. In thexv
third step, forecasts of port visits by container ships are developed on the basis of thetotal containerised trade measured in teus and the average teus exchanged per containership.Further, the total containerised trade and the three years average proportion ofinternational containerised trade are used to derive Australia’s internationalcontainerised trade in teus.Similarly, forecasts of non-containerised exports and imports are derived usingeconometric models with real gross domestic product (GDP) and gross nationalexpenditure (GNE), population and exchange rates as explanatory variables. Noncontainerisedexport and import forecasts are then added to derive the forecasts of totalnon-containerised trade. Total non-containerised trade and the three years averageproportion of international non-containerised trade are then used to derive the forecastsof international non-containerised trade. The average proportions are kept constant overthe forecast period.Total non-containerised trade is divided by the average tonnage of cargoes carried bynon-container ships to forecast the number of non-container ship visits over the forecastperiod.DATA AND THEIR SOURCESHistorical data on containerised and non-containerised exports and imports, emptycontainers, GNE, GDP, exchange rates, the trade weighted index and population used toestimate the econometric models were gathered from the Bureau of Transport andRegional Economics (BTRE), Port of Brisbane Corporation (PBC), Sydney PortsCorporation (SPC), Port of Melbourne Corporation (PMC), Flinders Ports Pty Ltd(FPPL), Fremantle Ports (FP), the Association of Australian Ports and MarineAuthorities (AAPMA), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Access Economicsand the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).Long-term forecasts of population and macroeconomic variables, which are the basis forthe shipping forecasts of this study, are obtained from the Australian Bureau ofStatistics, Access Economics and the US Census Bureau.ASSUMPTIONSProportion of 40-foot containersThere has been an increase in the number of 40-foot containers used to export andimport commodities at Australian ports. Approximately 38 per cent of total containersexchanged in Australia are 40-foot containers. However, 40-foot and 20-foot containersare not perfect substitutes. Heavy export commodities are being exported in 20-footcontainers, whereas 40-foot containers are used to import relatively light butvoluminous commodities. In this study, the proportion is assumed to gradually increasexvi
Page 2 and 3: Bureau of Transport and Regional Ec
Page 4: FOREWORDThis report presents the na
Page 7 and 8: Other ships........................
Page 9 and 10: Table 4.3Table 4.4Proportion of 40-
Page 11 and 12: Table I.3Estimated regression stati
Page 13 and 14: Figure 4.12Figure 4.13Non-container
Page 18 and 19: to 52 to 55 per cent in Brisbane, S
Page 20 and 21: containerised trade is forecast to
Page 22 and 23: next twenty years to 12.6 million t
Page 24 and 25: The total containerised trade of Po
Page 26 and 27: Other ports‘Other ports’ in thi
Page 28: CRUISE SHIPPING FORECASTSAustralia
Page 31 and 32: elation to the movement of containe
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER 2 FREIGHT FORECASTING MODEL
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.1 CONTAINERISED T
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.3 NON-CONTAINERIS
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER 2The exchange rate variable
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER 2volume of containerised im
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER 2appreciation (depreciation
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 2exports by 0.2 per cent in
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 2on the price of sea travel
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 3 FREIGHT MODELLING DATA AN
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 3containerised imports, but
Page 54 and 55: CHAPTER 3containers which are suita
Page 56: CHAPTER 3Non-container vessel sizeT
Page 59 and 60: agricultural commodities fell becau
Page 61 and 62: container imports and 2.5 per cent
Page 63 and 64: TABLE 4.2 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERIS
Page 65 and 66:
FIGURE 4.3 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE,
Page 67 and 68:
PBC is also developing an additiona
Page 69 and 70:
FIGURE 4.4 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 71 and 72:
TABLE 4.6CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AND
Page 73 and 74:
TABLE 4.8 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CON
Page 75 and 76:
TABLE 4.9 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TRA
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increase by 1.3 per cent a year ove
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FIGURE 4.7 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
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per cent), Hong Kong (4.4 per cent)
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TABLE 4.13 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
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the Australian economy and the depr
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facilitate the movement of containe
Page 89 and 90:
FIGURE 4.11 CONTAINERISED TRADE, 19
Page 91 and 92:
TABLE 4.17 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
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55.3 per cent in 2003-04 largely du
Page 95 and 96:
TABLE 4.20 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
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it accounts for 15 per cent of outb
Page 99 and 100:
TABLE 4.21 CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AN
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
TABLE 4.24 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
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The capacity of Fremantle Port will
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2024-25, whereas international non-
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
TABLE 4.29 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
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25. International containerised exp
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TABLE 4.32 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
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FIGURE 4.19 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE
Page 119 and 120:
TABLE 4.35 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
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CHAPTER 5 FORECASTS OF CRUISE PASSE
Page 124 and 125:
Chapter 5Cruising typesThe cruising
Page 126 and 127:
Chapter 510.0 per cent each and the
Page 128 and 129:
Chapter 5Similarly, ship capacity o
Page 130 and 131:
Chapter 5FIGURE 5.3 SHORT-TERM SEA
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APPENDIX IESTIMATED REGRESSION STAT
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APPENDIX IITABLE I.3Variable by por
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138:
Page 141 and 142:
DVB 2004, The Cruise Industry and i
Page 144:
ABBREVIATIONSABS Australian Bureau
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