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CHAPTER 3 FREIGHT MODELLING DATA ANDASSUMPTIONSDATAHistorical data on containerised and non-containerised exports and imports, emptycontainers, GNE, GDP, exchange rates, the trade weighted index and population, whichwere used to estimate the econometric forecasting models, were gathered from the Portof Brisbane Corporation (PBC 2004 and 2005), Sydney Ports Corporation (SPC 2004and 2005), Port of Melbourne Corporation (PMC 2004 and 2005), Flinders Ports PtyLtd (FPPL 2004 and 2005), Fremantle Ports (FP 2004 and 2005), the Association ofAustralian Ports and Marine Authorities (AAPMA 2006), BTRE’s international cargostatistics database, BTRE’s Waterline (BTRE 2005 and earlier issues), the AustralianBureau of Statistics (ABS 2004a and 2004b), Access Economics (2006) and OECD(2003).Data on international sea passenger movements were obtained from the AustralianBureau of Statistics (2004a), whereas data on cruise ship and passengers visits are takenfrom Cruise Down Under (CDU 2004a, 2004b and 2004c). The data on international seapassenger movements represent passenger movements for the first point of entry andexit only, and they simply indicate the total number of passengers arriving in anddeparting from Australia. They do not indicate the number of port visits, or passengersby port.ASSUMPTIONSIn this study, long-run assumptions on macroeconomic variables, population, theproportion of 40-foot containers and vessel size are used to develop the forecasts ofcontainer and ship movements. The assumptions are presented in the following sections.Macroeconomic and populationPopulation and macroeconomic assumptions are obtained from the ABS (2004b),Access Economics (2006) and the US Census Bureau (USCB 2004). Since themacroeconomic assumptions are available for the next ten years only, the assumptionsfor the rest of the forecast period are considered to be the same as those in year 2014-15.The assumptions are shown in Tables 3.1 to 3.4.21
TABLE 3.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH RATESYear Real GNE Real GDP Real GDP Real GDPAustralia USA Japan OECD(per cent)1999-00 4.6 4.5 1.2 3.92000-01 0.0 2.0 2.8 2.52001-02 4.4 0.8 -1.6 0.12002-03 6.3 2.3 1.8 1.22003-04 6.0 4.2 3.4 4.72004-05 4.1 3.5 2.8 3.52005-06 4.1 3.0 1.6 3.02006-07 3.1 3.1 1.8 3.12007-08 2.8 3.7 2.0 3.72008-09 3.2 3.9 1.8 3.82009-10 2.5 3.5 1.6 3.32010-11 2.5 3.1 1.6 3.02011-12 2.3 2.9 1.6 2.82012-13 2.3 2.7 1.6 2.62013-14 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52014-15 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52015-16 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52016-17 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52017-18 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52018-19 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52019-20 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52020-21 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52021-22 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52022-23 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52023-24 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.52024-25 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.5Annual average1999-00 to 2004-05 4.2 2.9 1.7 2.62004-05 to 2024-25 2.7 2.8 1.6 2.8* Numbers in bold are forecasts .Australia’s real GNE grew annually by 4.2 per cent in the last five years (Table 3.1).However, such high growth is not expected to continue over the next twenty years. It isforecast to increase by 2.7 per cent a year over the forecast period. The slowing ofeconomic growth will make Australia’s containerised and non-containerised importsgrow at a rate lower than the rate observed during the last five years.The strength of the Australian dollar against the US dollar is expected to weaken overthe forecast period, from US$0.74 per Australian dollar in 2004-05 to US$0.59 perAustralian dollar in 2024-25 (Table 3.2). This will have an adverse impact on22
Page 2 and 3: Bureau of Transport and Regional Ec
Page 4: FOREWORDThis report presents the na
Page 7 and 8: Other ships........................
Page 9 and 10: Table 4.3Table 4.4Proportion of 40-
Page 11 and 12: Table I.3Estimated regression stati
Page 13 and 14: Figure 4.12Figure 4.13Non-container
Page 16 and 17: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBACKGROUNDInternat
Page 18 and 19: to 52 to 55 per cent in Brisbane, S
Page 20 and 21: containerised trade is forecast to
Page 22 and 23: next twenty years to 12.6 million t
Page 24 and 25: The total containerised trade of Po
Page 26 and 27: Other ports‘Other ports’ in thi
Page 28: CRUISE SHIPPING FORECASTSAustralia
Page 31 and 32: elation to the movement of containe
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER 2 FREIGHT FORECASTING MODEL
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.1 CONTAINERISED T
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.3 NON-CONTAINERIS
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER 2The exchange rate variable
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER 2volume of containerised im
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER 2appreciation (depreciation
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 2exports by 0.2 per cent in
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 2on the price of sea travel
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 3containerised imports, but
Page 54 and 55: CHAPTER 3containers which are suita
Page 56: CHAPTER 3Non-container vessel sizeT
Page 59 and 60: agricultural commodities fell becau
Page 61 and 62: container imports and 2.5 per cent
Page 63 and 64: TABLE 4.2 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERIS
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 4.3 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE,
Page 67 and 68: PBC is also developing an additiona
Page 69 and 70: FIGURE 4.4 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 71 and 72: TABLE 4.6CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AND
Page 73 and 74: TABLE 4.8 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CON
Page 75 and 76: TABLE 4.9 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TRA
Page 77 and 78: increase by 1.3 per cent a year ove
Page 79 and 80: FIGURE 4.7 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 81 and 82: per cent), Hong Kong (4.4 per cent)
Page 83 and 84: TABLE 4.13 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
Page 85 and 86: the Australian economy and the depr
Page 87 and 88: facilitate the movement of containe
Page 89 and 90: FIGURE 4.11 CONTAINERISED TRADE, 19
Page 91 and 92: TABLE 4.17 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 93 and 94: 55.3 per cent in 2003-04 largely du
Page 95 and 96: TABLE 4.20 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 97 and 98: it accounts for 15 per cent of outb
Page 99 and 100: TABLE 4.21 CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AN
Page 101 and 102:
TABLE 4.23 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
Page 103 and 104:
TABLE 4.24 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 105 and 106:
The capacity of Fremantle Port will
Page 107 and 108:
2024-25, whereas international non-
Page 109 and 110:
TABLE 4.28 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
Page 111 and 112:
TABLE 4.29 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 113 and 114:
25. International containerised exp
Page 115 and 116:
TABLE 4.32 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 117 and 118:
FIGURE 4.19 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE
Page 119 and 120:
TABLE 4.35 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 122 and 123:
CHAPTER 5 FORECASTS OF CRUISE PASSE
Page 124 and 125:
Chapter 5Cruising typesThe cruising
Page 126 and 127:
Chapter 510.0 per cent each and the
Page 128 and 129:
Chapter 5Similarly, ship capacity o
Page 130 and 131:
Chapter 5FIGURE 5.3 SHORT-TERM SEA
Page 132 and 133:
APPENDIX IESTIMATED REGRESSION STAT
Page 134 and 135:
APPENDIX IITABLE I.3Variable by por
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138:
Page 141 and 142:
DVB 2004, The Cruise Industry and i
Page 144:
ABBREVIATIONSABS Australian Bureau
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