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The Winton M. Blount Postal History Symposia - Smithsonian ...

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9 6 • s m i t h s o n i a n c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o h i s t o ry a n d t e c h n o l o g yproblems allowed stamps to go into production prior totheir approval by the third assistant postmaster generaland/or the U.S. postage stamp agent (See approval datesin Table 1 and the approval date on the signed proof inFigure 1).Inventory and Demand ProjectionsIn an article by Dickey, 6 a letter from the chief of theBureau of Engraving and Printing, Claude M. Johnson,was quoted in which Johnson provided a forecast by denominationfor the number of postage due stamps neededto be supplied by the BEP for fiscal year 1895 (beginningJuly 1, 1894). This forecast is shown in Column 2of Table 2. For comparison, the actual shipment of postagedue stamps by the ABNCo in fiscal year 1893 (July1, 1892, to June 30, 1893) is given in Column 3 of Table2. 7 This was the last full year’s worth of data available toJohnson when he made his prediction in early 1894. It canbe seen that the forecast by Johnson is essentially the 1893fiscal year data with two notable exceptions, the estimatesfor the thirty- cent and fifty- cent postage- dues. <strong>The</strong>se estimateswere approximately six times higher for the thirtycentdues and thirteen times higher for the fifty- cent dues.This was extremely optimistic since the thirty- cent andfifty- cent dues had averaged only about 6,800 and 2,100respectively in the previous six years. 8Table 2 also contains the ABNCo large numeralpostage- due shipment data for fiscal year 1894 (July 1,1893, to June 30, 1894). It can be seen that althoughJohnson’s forecast for total number of postage- due stampsis slightly greater than the actual totals in both FY 1893and FY 1894, his estimate was over one- half million underthe actual shipment of two- cent postage- dues in FY 1894.<strong>The</strong> ten- cent value estimate was almost 90,000 below theFY 1894 shipments, while the three- cent was slightly over40,000 below the actual data for FY 1894.Near the end of its contract, the ABNCo supplied theremaining stock of large numeral dues to the BEP so that itwould have a supply of postage dues to begin the 1895 fiscalyear (Table 3). <strong>The</strong> quantity supplied was 2,796,543 postagedue stamps. This quantity, broken down by denomination,is shown in Column 2. <strong>The</strong> shipments of large- numeralpostage- due stamps by the BEP to postmasters in fiscal year1895 is given in Column 3. Column 4 indicates the differenceor the remaining large- numeral postage- dues in thehands of the BEP. <strong>The</strong> BEP indicated that these remainderswere scrapped in early calendar year 1895 to avoid “elaborate”daily inventory reports.By comparing the data in Tables 2 and 3, it is quiteclear that the ABNCo dues were insufficient to meet thedemand. In fact, the 50,164 two- cent postage- dues representedonly 0.76 percent of the estimated needed supply.This percentage equates to about 2.8 days, assuming alinear usage rate throughout the year. <strong>The</strong> one- cent supplywas about fifteen percent of the estimated needed supplyor fifty- five days worth, and the ten- cent large- numeraldues on hand could satisfy the demand for about sixtysevendays. Even the five- cent supply was only good for306 days or about ten months. Only the thirty cent andfifty cent dues were in sufficient numbers to last multipleTable 2. BEP Forecast of Postage Due Stamp Requirements forfiscal year 1895 and Shipment Records of Large Numeral PostageDues for fiscal years 1893 and 1894Table 3. ABNCo Large Numeral Postage Dues Transferred tothe BEP and Subsequently Distributed by the BEP during FiscalYear 1895Johnson’s ABNCo ABNCoForecast Shipment Shipmentfor Fiscal in Fiscal in FiscalValue Year 1895 Year 1893 Year 18941¢ 9,000,000 8,967,456 8,441,9002¢ 6,600,000 6,598,500 7,131,7003¢ 200,000 198,955 242,9005¢ 800,000 808,510 603,78010¢ 1,520,000 1,525,550 1,608,47030¢ 40,000 6,650 6,29050¢ 40,000 2,350 3,106Total 18,200,000 18,101,950 18,038,146Value ABNCo Shipment a BEP Distribution b Difference1¢ 1,350,369 1,350,369 02¢ 50,164 50,164 03¢ 294,783 190,300 104,4835¢ 670,148 604,320 65,82310¢ 277,794 277,780 1430¢ 96,502 23,430 73,07250¢ 56,783 15,030 41,753Total 2,796,543 2,511,393 285,150 caPost Office Bill Book, June 30, 1879–March 30, 1895b John N. Luff, <strong>The</strong> Postage Stamps of the United States 1902 Edition, Scott Stampand Coin Company Limited, pp 245–352.cExcess scraped.

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