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The planet we live on: The beginnings of the Earth Sciences

The planet we live on: The beginnings of the Earth Sciences

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Figure 5.14: A GPS (global satellite positi<strong>on</strong>ing) remote volcano m<strong>on</strong>itoring stati<strong>on</strong>,m<strong>on</strong>itoring deformati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> slopes <strong>of</strong> a volcano.for any changes in gas compositi<strong>on</strong> that may occur before erupti<strong>on</strong>, whilst small scalechanges in gravity and magnetism may also be used to predict erupti<strong>on</strong>s. Unfortunately,all <strong>the</strong> equipment needed for thorough volcano m<strong>on</strong>itoring is very expensive, so that,whilst many volcanoes in <strong>the</strong> USA are closely m<strong>on</strong>itored, many in <strong>the</strong> developing worldare not. Erupti<strong>on</strong> risk to populati<strong>on</strong>s is much higher in volcanic regi<strong>on</strong>s that have lesseffective m<strong>on</strong>itoring systems.Scientists have been investigating earthquake predicti<strong>on</strong> for many years and have shownthat, while it is impossible to predict earthquakes (<strong>the</strong> exact time and place where <strong>the</strong>ywill occur) it may be possible to forecast earthquakes, suggesting <strong>the</strong> probability that anearthquake will occur at a given place at a given time. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se forecasts have been based<strong>on</strong> a number <strong>of</strong> methods including:• seismic gaps: when faults are under plate tect<strong>on</strong>ic pressure, some parts <strong>of</strong> faultsslip gently, whilst o<strong>the</strong>rs are ‘locked’. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> locked parts are seismic gaps, whereearthquakes have been recorded <strong>on</strong> ei<strong>the</strong>r side, but not in <strong>the</strong> middle; <strong>the</strong> next bigearthquake is most likely in this seismic gap area. Figure 5.15 shows how <strong>the</strong> groundsurface moved in <strong>the</strong> Izmit earthquake in Turkey in 1999. O<strong>the</strong>r major earthquakeshave happened al<strong>on</strong>g <strong>the</strong> fault to <strong>the</strong> east, so <strong>the</strong> next large earthquake is likely tobe in <strong>the</strong> seismic gap to <strong>the</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>we</str<strong>on</strong>g>st; this happens to be beneath <strong>the</strong> city <strong>of</strong> Istanbul.• foreshocks: many major earthquakes have smaller foreshocks beforehand, ho<str<strong>on</strong>g>we</str<strong>on</strong>g>ver,many small foreshock-like earthquakes can occur al<strong>on</strong>g a fault without a majorearthquake following <strong>the</strong>m.120

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