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The planet we live on: The beginnings of the Earth Sciences

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N<strong>on</strong>e <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se methods has yet proved to be scientifically successful in reliably forecastingearthquakes. Meanwhile, scientists have to be very careful not to forecast an earthquakethat doesn’t happen, since an inaccurate forecast can be very costly and <strong>the</strong> populati<strong>on</strong>is less likely to take notice <strong>of</strong> future forecasts. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> work <strong>of</strong> seeking reliable earthquakeforecastingtechniques is likely to c<strong>on</strong>tinue for many years to come.Landslides can be fast or slow-moving. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re is no time to m<strong>on</strong>itor fast-moving events, butlandslides that creep slowly and threaten buildings or o<strong>the</strong>r c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong>s such as roads,can be m<strong>on</strong>itored by instruments to detect movement, ground vibrati<strong>on</strong>, groundwaterchanges, or rainfall. Ho<str<strong>on</strong>g>we</str<strong>on</strong>g>ver, this is expensive, and is <strong>on</strong>ly usually possible in <str<strong>on</strong>g>we</str<strong>on</strong>g>lldevelopedcountries.A range <strong>of</strong> techniques is available to reduce <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> creeping landslides, includingimproving drainage, planting vegetati<strong>on</strong> to bind <strong>the</strong> material with roots and remove water,and anchoring <strong>the</strong> toe <strong>of</strong> slips with heavy masses <strong>of</strong> material or st<strong>on</strong>e-filled gabi<strong>on</strong> baskets.Rockfall hazards in steeper areas can also be reduced by using rock bolts to tie downlooser secti<strong>on</strong>s, by covering steep surfaces with mesh geotextiles or c<strong>on</strong>crete blankets(shotcrete) and by building fences and ditches to catch debris. Again, <strong>the</strong>se remediati<strong>on</strong>techniques are usually <strong>on</strong>ly possible in <str<strong>on</strong>g>we</str<strong>on</strong>g>ll-developed countries.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> final stage <strong>of</strong> tackling geohazard risk, after assessing geohazard impact, c<strong>on</strong>trollingbuilding c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong>, and using predicti<strong>on</strong>/m<strong>on</strong>itoring methods, is to develop plans toprotect <strong>the</strong> populati<strong>on</strong> during and after an event. Such plans will differ, depending <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong>type <strong>of</strong> event and its likely scale. Ho<str<strong>on</strong>g>we</str<strong>on</strong>g>ver, most plans have in comm<strong>on</strong>: <strong>the</strong> training <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>emergency services, <strong>the</strong> educati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> populati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> what to do and when, <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong>early warning systems where possible, <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> evacuati<strong>on</strong> plans, procedures tomaintain essential services, and strategies to call in extra help and resources if necessary.See <strong>the</strong> ‘Surviving an earthquake’ activity at http://www.earthlearningidea.com.5.2 Human impacts <strong>on</strong> climate changeMedia reports <strong>of</strong>ten link all sorts <strong>of</strong> natural disasters to climate change but, althoughclimate change will have l<strong>on</strong>g term effects <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Earth</strong>, it is not directly resp<strong>on</strong>sible forshort term changes like those in <strong>the</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>we</str<strong>on</strong>g>a<strong>the</strong>r or sudden geohazard events.Never<strong>the</strong>less, as shown in Secti<strong>on</strong> 3.3 <strong>of</strong> this book, climate change could have dramaticeffects in <strong>the</strong> future. Global warming could cause marked temperature rises and increasesin drought in some parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Earth</strong>, linked surprisingly to cooling in o<strong>the</strong>rs. Global climatebelts would tend to move towards <strong>the</strong> poles and <strong>the</strong> world’s <str<strong>on</strong>g>we</str<strong>on</strong>g>a<strong>the</strong>r patterns wouldprobably become more stormy. If <strong>the</strong> warming caused major melting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> c<strong>on</strong>tinentalice sheets (<strong>on</strong> Greenland and Antarctica), global sea levels would rise significantly. Meanwhile<strong>the</strong> water in <strong>the</strong> warming oceans would also expand, causing many low-lying areas,including many <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world’s major cities, to be pr<strong>on</strong>e to large-scale flooding duringstorms.For <strong>the</strong>se reas<strong>on</strong>s, many scientists and an increasing number <strong>of</strong> politicians and o<strong>the</strong>r influentialpeople across <strong>the</strong> world are arguing that <strong>the</strong> human populati<strong>on</strong> should do all122

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