ScenarioABCDImplicit Value <strong>of</strong> VegetableOil FeedstockUS$1.68 per gallonUS$2.73 per gallonUS$1.93 per gallonUS$2.99 per gallonTable 2: Biodiesel Feedstock ValuesFrom the two tables above, one can see that scale economies improve the economic prospects to alimited degree, while the effect <strong>of</strong> tax treatment is more than US$1.00 per gallon <strong>of</strong> feedstock at eitherscale. The detailed cash-flow simulations are presented in the tables below.104
Financial Analysis for 3 Million Gallons per Year Biodiesel With TaxesYEARItem 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 151 Initial Investment $7,500,000234 Product Value per Gal. Biodiesel $2.57 $2.65 $2.73 $2.81 $2.89 $2.98 $3.07 $3.16 $3.26 $3.36 $3.46 $3.56 $3.67 $3.78 $3.895 Feedstock Cost per Gallon $1.68 $1.73 $1.78 $1.83 $1.89 $1.94 $2.00 $2.06 $2.12 $2.19 $2.25 $2.32 $2.39 $2.46 $2.546 Biodiesel Sales $7,714,910 $7,946,357 $8,184,748 $8,430,290 $8,683,199 $8,943,695 $9,212,006 $9,488,366 $9,773,017 $10,066,208 $10,368,194 $10,679,240 $10,999,617 $11,329,605 $11,669,4947 Feedstock cost @1.02 gal/gal prod. $5,131,984 $5,285,944 $5,444,522 $5,607,858 $5,776,094 $5,949,376 $6,127,858 $6,311,694 $6,501,044 $6,696,076 $6,896,958 $7,103,867 $7,316,983 $7,536,492 $7,762,5878 Gross Margin $2,582,926 $2,660,413 $2,740,226 $2,822,433 $2,907,105 $2,994,319 $3,084,148 $3,176,673 $3,271,973 $3,370,132 $3,471,236 $3,575,373 $3,682,634 $3,793,113 $3,906,9079 Gross margin per gallon $0.86 $0.89 $0.91 $0.94 $0.97 $1.00 $1.03 $1.06 $1.09 $1.12 $1.16 $1.19 $1.23 $1.26 $1.301011 Processing Cost12 Methanol and other reagents @ $0.25/ Gal. $750,000 $772,500 $795,675 $819,545 $844,132 $869,456 $895,539 $922,405 $950,078 $978,580 $1,007,937 $1,038,175 $1,069,321 $1,101,400 $1,134,44213 Other Plant Operating Cost @ $0.15/Gal. $450,000 $463,500 $477,405 $491,727 $506,479 $521,673 $537,324 $553,443 $570,047 $587,148 $604,762 $622,905 $641,592 $660,840 $680,66514 SG&A $100,000 $103,000 $106,090 $109,273 $112,551 $115,927 $119,405 $122,987 $126,677 $130,477 $134,392 $138,423 $142,576 $146,853 $151,25915 Total Processing Cost $1,300,000 $1,339,000 $1,379,170 $1,420,545 $1,463,161 $1,507,056 $1,552,268 $1,598,836 $1,646,801 $1,696,205 $1,747,091 $1,799,504 $1,853,489 $1,909,094 $1,966,3671617 Depreciation (15 year) $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,0001819 Net Income $782,926 $821,413 $861,056 $901,887 $943,944 $987,262 $1,031,880 $1,077,837 $1,125,172 $1,173,927 $1,224,145 $1,275,869 $1,329,145 $1,384,019 $1,440,5402021 Taxes (20%) $156,585 $164,283 $172,211 $180,377 $188,789 $197,452 $206,376 $215,567 $225,034 $234,785 $244,829 $255,174 $265,829 $276,804 $288,1082223 Income After Tax $626,340 $657,131 $688,845 $721,510 $755,155 $789,810 $825,504 $862,269 $900,137 $939,142 $979,316 $1,020,695 $1,063,316 $1,107,216 $1,152,43224 (Add Back Non-cash Depreciation) $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,00025 Cash Flow -$7,500,000 $1,126,340 $1,157,131 $1,188,845 $1,221,510 $1,255,155 $1,289,810 $1,325,504 $1,362,269 $1,400,137 $1,439,142 $1,479,316 $1,520,695 $1,563,316 $1,607,216 $1,652,43226 Discounted Cash Flow -$7,500,000 $979,426 $874,957 $781,685 $698,402 $624,034 $557,620 $498,306 $445,328 $398,006 $355,734 $317,969 $284,229 $254,083 $227,146 $203,07527 Cumulative Disc. Cash Flow -$7,500,000 -$6,520,574 -$5,645,616 -$4,863,932 -$4,165,530 -$3,541,496 -$2,983,875 -$2,485,569 -$2,040,241 -$1,642,234 -$1,286,501 -$968,532 -$684,303 -$430,220 -$203,075 $0INPUTSVALUES1 Investment per Annual Gallon $2.504 Product Annual Escallation Rate = 3%5 Feedstock Annual Escallation Rate = 3%12-14 Processing Annual Escallation Rate = 3%26 Annual Discount Rate (IRR) = 15%Financial Analysis for 3 Million Gallons per Year Biodiesel Without TaxesYEARItem 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 151 Initial Investment $7,500,000234 Product Value per Gal. Biodiesel $3.65 $3.76 $3.87 $3.99 $4.11 $4.23 $4.36 $4.49 $4.62 $4.76 $4.91 $5.05 $5.20 $5.36 $5.525 Feedstock Cost per Gallon $2.73 $2.82 $2.90 $2.99 $3.08 $3.17 $3.26 $3.36 $3.46 $3.57 $3.67 $3.78 $3.90 $4.02 $4.146 Biodiesel Sales $10,950,000 $11,278,500 $11,616,855 $11,965,361 $12,324,321 $12,694,051 $13,074,873 $13,467,119 $13,871,132 $14,287,266 $14,715,884 $15,157,361 $15,612,082 $16,080,444 $16,562,8577 Feedstock cost @1.02 gal/gal prod. $8,367,074 $8,618,087 $8,876,629 $9,142,928 $9,417,216 $9,699,732 $9,990,724 $10,290,446 $10,599,160 $10,917,134 $11,244,648 $11,581,988 $11,929,447 $12,287,331 $12,655,9518 Gross Margin $2,582,926 $2,660,413 $2,740,226 $2,822,433 $2,907,105 $2,994,319 $3,084,148 $3,176,673 $3,271,973 $3,370,132 $3,471,236 $3,575,373 $3,682,634 $3,793,113 $3,906,9079 Gross margin per gallon $0.86 $0.89 $0.91 $0.94 $0.97 $1.00 $1.03 $1.06 $1.09 $1.12 $1.16 $1.19 $1.23 $1.26 $1.301011 Processing Cost12 Methanol and other reagents @ $0.25/ Gal. $750,000 $772,500 $795,675 $819,545 $844,132 $869,456 $895,539 $922,405 $950,078 $978,580 $1,007,937 $1,038,175 $1,069,321 $1,101,400 $1,134,44213 Other Plant Operating Cost @ $0.15/Gal. $450,000 $463,500 $477,405 $491,727 $506,479 $521,673 $537,324 $553,443 $570,047 $587,148 $604,762 $622,905 $641,592 $660,840 $680,66514 SG&A $100,000 $103,000 $106,090 $109,273 $112,551 $115,927 $119,405 $122,987 $126,677 $130,477 $134,392 $138,423 $142,576 $146,853 $151,25915 Total Processing Cost $1,300,000 $1,339,000 $1,379,170 $1,420,545 $1,463,161 $1,507,056 $1,552,268 $1,598,836 $1,646,801 $1,696,205 $1,747,091 $1,799,504 $1,853,489 $1,909,094 $1,966,3671617 Depreciation (15 year) $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,0001819 Net Income $782,926 $821,413 $861,056 $901,887 $943,944 $987,262 $1,031,880 $1,077,837 $1,125,172 $1,173,927 $1,224,145 $1,275,869 $1,329,145 $1,384,019 $1,440,5402021 Taxes (20%) $156,585 $164,283 $172,211 $180,377 $188,789 $197,452 $206,376 $215,567 $225,034 $234,785 $244,829 $255,174 $265,829 $276,804 $288,1082223 Income After Tax $626,340 $657,131 $688,845 $721,510 $755,155 $789,810 $825,504 $862,269 $900,137 $939,142 $979,316 $1,020,695 $1,063,316 $1,107,216 $1,152,43224 (Add Back Non-cash Depreciation) $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,00025 Cash Flow -$7,500,000 $1,126,340 $1,157,131 $1,188,845 $1,221,510 $1,255,155 $1,289,810 $1,325,504 $1,362,269 $1,400,137 $1,439,142 $1,479,316 $1,520,695 $1,563,316 $1,607,216 $1,652,43226 Discounted Cash Flow -$7,500,000 $979,426 $874,957 $781,685 $698,402 $624,034 $557,620 $498,306 $445,328 $398,006 $355,734 $317,969 $284,229 $254,083 $227,146 $203,07527 Cumulative Disc. Cash Flow -$7,500,000 -$6,520,574 -$5,645,616 -$4,863,932 -$4,165,530 -$3,541,496 -$2,983,875 -$2,485,569 -$2,040,241 -$1,642,234 -$1,286,501 -$968,532 -$684,303 -$430,220 -$203,075 $0INPUTSVALUES1 Investment per Annual Gallon $2.504 Product Annual Escallation Rate = 3%5 Feedstock Annual Escallation Rate = 3%12-14 Processing Annual Escallation Rate = 3%26 Annual Discount Rate (IRR) = 15%105
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