Jamaica Biofuels Report - Ministry of Energy

Financial Analysis for 15 Million Gallons per Year Biodiesel With TaxesYEARItem 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 151 Initial Investment $15,000,000234 Product Value per Gal. Biodiesel $2.57 $2.65 $2.73 $2.81 $2.89 $2.98 $3.07 $3.16 $3.26 $3.36 $3.46 $3.56 $3.67 $3.78 $3.895 Feedstock Cost per Gallon $1.93 $1.99 $2.05 $2.11 $2.17 $2.24 $2.30 $2.37 $2.44 $2.52 $2.59 $2.67 $2.75 $2.83 $2.926 Biodiesel Sales $38,574,550 $39,731,786 $40,923,740 $42,151,452 $43,415,996 $44,718,476 $46,060,030 $47,441,831 $48,865,086 $50,331,038 $51,840,970 $53,396,199 $54,998,085 $56,648,027 $58,347,4687 Feedstock cost @1.02 gal/gal prod. $29,508,699 $30,393,960 $31,305,779 $32,244,952 $33,212,301 $34,208,670 $35,234,930 $36,291,978 $37,380,737 $38,502,159 $39,657,224 $40,846,940 $42,072,349 $43,334,519 $44,634,5558 Gross Margin $9,065,851 $9,337,827 $9,617,961 $9,906,500 $10,203,695 $10,509,806 $10,825,100 $11,149,853 $11,484,349 $11,828,879 $12,183,746 $12,549,258 $12,925,736 $13,313,508 $13,712,9139 Gross margin per gallon $0.60 $0.62 $0.64 $0.66 $0.68 $0.70 $0.72 $0.74 $0.77 $0.79 $0.81 $0.84 $0.86 $0.89 $0.911011 Processing Cost12 Methanol and other reagents @ $0.25/ Gal. $3,750,000 $3,862,500 $3,978,375 $4,097,726 $4,220,658 $4,347,278 $4,477,696 $4,612,027 $4,750,388 $4,892,899 $5,039,686 $5,190,877 $5,346,603 $5,507,001 $5,672,21113 Other Plant Operating Cost @ $0.15/Gal. $2,250,000 $2,317,500 $2,387,025 $2,458,636 $2,532,395 $2,608,367 $2,686,618 $2,767,216 $2,850,233 $2,935,740 $3,023,812 $3,114,526 $3,207,962 $3,304,201 $3,403,32714 SG&A $500,000 $515,000 $530,450 $546,364 $562,754 $579,637 $597,026 $614,937 $633,385 $652,387 $671,958 $692,117 $712,880 $734,267 $756,29515 Total Processing Cost $6,500,000 $6,695,000 $6,895,850 $7,102,726 $7,315,807 $7,535,281 $7,761,340 $7,994,180 $8,234,006 $8,481,026 $8,735,456 $8,997,520 $9,267,446 $9,545,469 $9,831,8331617 Depreciation (15 year) $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,0001819 Net Income $1,565,851 $1,642,827 $1,722,111 $1,803,775 $1,887,888 $1,974,525 $2,063,760 $2,155,673 $2,250,343 $2,347,854 $2,448,289 $2,551,738 $2,658,290 $2,768,039 $2,881,0802021 Taxes (20%) $313,170 $328,565 $344,422 $360,755 $377,578 $394,905 $412,752 $431,135 $450,069 $469,571 $489,658 $510,348 $531,658 $553,608 $576,2162223 Income After Tax $1,252,681 $1,314,261 $1,377,689 $1,443,020 $1,510,310 $1,579,620 $1,651,008 $1,724,539 $1,800,275 $1,878,283 $1,958,631 $2,041,390 $2,126,632 $2,214,431 $2,304,86424 (Add Back Non-cash Depreciation) $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,00025 Cash Flow -$15,000,000 $2,252,681 $2,314,261 $2,377,689 $2,443,020 $2,510,310 $2,579,620 $2,651,008 $2,724,539 $2,800,275 $2,878,283 $2,958,631 $3,041,390 $3,126,632 $3,214,431 $3,304,86426 Discounted Cash Flow -$15,000,000 $1,958,853 $1,749,914 $1,563,369 $1,396,805 $1,248,068 $1,115,241 $996,612 $890,657 $796,013 $711,468 $635,938 $568,458 $508,165 $454,291 $406,15027 Cumulative Disc. Cash Flow -$15,000,000 -$13,041,147 -$11,291,233 -$9,727,864 -$8,331,059 -$7,082,991 -$5,967,750 -$4,971,138 -$4,080,482 -$3,284,469 -$2,573,001 -$1,937,064 -$1,368,606 -$860,441 -$406,150 $0INPUTSVALUES1 Investment per Annual Gallon $1.004 Product Annual Escallation Rate = 3%5 Feedstock Annual Escallation Rate = 3%12-14 Processing Annual Escallation Rate = 3%26 Annual Discount Rate (IRR) = 15%Financial Analysis for 15 Million Gallons per Year Biodiesel Without TaxesYEARItem 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 151 Initial Investment $15,000,000234 Product Value per Gal. Biodiesel $3.65 $3.76 $3.87 $3.99 $4.11 $4.23 $4.36 $4.49 $4.62 $4.76 $4.91 $5.05 $5.20 $5.36 $5.525 Feedstock Cost per Gallon $2.99 $3.08 $3.17 $3.26 $3.36 $3.46 $3.57 $3.67 $3.78 $3.90 $4.01 $4.13 $4.26 $4.38 $4.526 Biodiesel Sales $54,750,000 $56,392,500 $58,084,275 $59,826,803 $61,621,607 $63,470,256 $65,374,363 $67,335,594 $69,355,662 $71,436,332 $73,579,422 $75,786,804 $78,060,409 $80,402,221 $82,814,2877 Feedstock cost @1.02 gal/gal prod. $45,684,149 $47,054,673 $48,466,314 $49,920,303 $51,417,912 $52,960,449 $54,549,263 $56,185,741 $57,871,313 $59,607,452 $61,395,676 $63,237,546 $65,134,673 $67,088,713 $69,101,3748 Gross Margin $9,065,851 $9,337,827 $9,617,961 $9,906,500 $10,203,695 $10,509,806 $10,825,100 $11,149,853 $11,484,349 $11,828,879 $12,183,746 $12,549,258 $12,925,736 $13,313,508 $13,712,9139 Gross margin per gallon $0.60 $0.62 $0.64 $0.66 $0.68 $0.70 $0.72 $0.74 $0.77 $0.79 $0.81 $0.84 $0.86 $0.89 $0.911011 Processing Cost12 Methanol and other reagents @ $0.25/ Gal. $3,750,000 $3,862,500 $3,978,375 $4,097,726 $4,220,658 $4,347,278 $4,477,696 $4,612,027 $4,750,388 $4,892,899 $5,039,686 $5,190,877 $5,346,603 $5,507,001 $5,672,21113 Other Plant Operating Cost @ $0.15/Gal. $2,250,000 $2,317,500 $2,387,025 $2,458,636 $2,532,395 $2,608,367 $2,686,618 $2,767,216 $2,850,233 $2,935,740 $3,023,812 $3,114,526 $3,207,962 $3,304,201 $3,403,32714 SG&A $500,000 $515,000 $530,450 $546,364 $562,754 $579,637 $597,026 $614,937 $633,385 $652,387 $671,958 $692,117 $712,880 $734,267 $756,29515 Total Processing Cost $6,500,000 $6,695,000 $6,895,850 $7,102,726 $7,315,807 $7,535,281 $7,761,340 $7,994,180 $8,234,006 $8,481,026 $8,735,456 $8,997,520 $9,267,446 $9,545,469 $9,831,8331617 Depreciation (15 year) $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,0001819 Net Income $1,565,851 $1,642,827 $1,722,111 $1,803,775 $1,887,888 $1,974,525 $2,063,760 $2,155,673 $2,250,343 $2,347,854 $2,448,289 $2,551,738 $2,658,290 $2,768,039 $2,881,0802021 Taxes (20%) $313,170 $328,565 $344,422 $360,755 $377,578 $394,905 $412,752 $431,135 $450,069 $469,571 $489,658 $510,348 $531,658 $553,608 $576,2162223 Income After Tax $1,252,681 $1,314,261 $1,377,689 $1,443,020 $1,510,310 $1,579,620 $1,651,008 $1,724,539 $1,800,275 $1,878,283 $1,958,631 $2,041,390 $2,126,632 $2,214,431 $2,304,86424 (Add Back Non-cash Depreciation) $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,00025 Cash Flow -$15,000,000 $2,252,681 $2,314,261 $2,377,689 $2,443,020 $2,510,310 $2,579,620 $2,651,008 $2,724,539 $2,800,275 $2,878,283 $2,958,631 $3,041,390 $3,126,632 $3,214,431 $3,304,86426 Discounted Cash Flow -$15,000,000 $1,958,853 $1,749,914 $1,563,369 $1,396,805 $1,248,068 $1,115,241 $996,612 $890,657 $796,013 $711,468 $635,938 $568,458 $508,165 $454,291 $406,15027 Cumulative Disc. Cash Flow -$15,000,000 -$13,041,147 -$11,291,233 -$9,727,864 -$8,331,059 -$7,082,991 -$5,967,750 -$4,971,138 -$4,080,482 -$3,284,469 -$2,573,001 -$1,937,064 -$1,368,606 -$860,441 -$406,150 $0INPUTSVALUES1 Investment per Annual Gallon $1.004 Product Annual Escallation Rate = 3%5 Feedstock Annual Escallation Rate = 3%12-14 Processing Annual Escallation Rate = 3%26 Annual Discount Rate (IRR) = 15%106