Jamaica Biofuels Report - Ministry of Energy

Financial Simulation for Ethanol and Power Production at DuckenfieldInitial Investment $ 17,053,549YEAR0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Product valuesEthanol (per liter) $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.53 $ 0.55 $ 0.58 $ 0.61 $ 0.64 $ 0.67 $ 0.70 $ 0.74 $ 0.78 $ 0.81 $ 0.86 $ 0.90 $ 0.94 $0.99Refined Sugar (per tonne) $ 480 $ 480 $ 504 $ 529 $ 556 $ 583 $ 613 $ 643 $ 675 $ 709 $ 745 $ 782 $ 821 $ 862 $ 905 $950Molasses (per tonne) $ 60 $ 60 $ 63 $ 66 $ 69 $ 73 $ 77 $ 80 $ 84 $ 89 $ 93 $ 98 $ 103 $ 108 $ 113 $119Exported electricity (per MWh) $ 150 $ 150 $ 158 $ 165 $ 174 $ 182 $ 191 $ 201 $ 211 $ 222 $ 233 $ 244 $ 257 $ 269 $ 283 $297Product RevenueEthanol $ 16,875,000 $ 17,718,750 $ 18,604,688 $ 19,534,922 $ 20,511,668 $ 21,537,251 $ 22,614,114 $ 23,744,820 $ 24,932,061 $ 26,178,664 $ 27,487,597 $ 28,861,977 $ 30,305,076 $ 31,820,329 $ 33,411,346Foregone sugar revenue @ 37,000 tonnes/yr $ (17,760,000) $ (18,648,000) $ (19,580,400) $ (20,559,420) $ (21,587,391) $ (22,666,761) $ (23,800,099) $ (24,990,104) $ (26,239,609) $ (27,551,589) $ (28,929,169) $ (30,375,627) $ (31,894,408) $ (33,489,129) $ (35,163,585)Foregone molasses revenue @3,700 tonnes/yr $ (222,000) $ (233,100) $ (244,755) $ (256,993) $ (269,842) $ (283,335) $ (297,501) $ (312,376) $ (327,995) $ (344,395) $ (361,615) $ (379,695) $ (398,680) $ (418,614) $ (439,545)Exported electricity $ 3,900,000 $ 4,095,000 $ 4,299,750 $ 4,514,738 $ 4,740,474 $ 4,977,498 $ 5,226,373 $ 5,487,692 $ 5,762,076 $ 6,050,180 $ 6,352,689 $ 6,670,323 $ 7,003,840 $ 7,354,032 $ 7,721,733Total Revenue $ 2,793,000 $ 2,932,650 $ 3,079,283 $ 3,233,247 $ 3,394,909 $ 3,564,654 $ 3,742,887 $ 3,930,031 $ 4,126,533 $ 4,332,860 $ 4,549,503 $ 4,776,978 $ 5,015,827 $ 5,266,618 $ 5,529,949Incremental O&M Costs relative to sugar and molasses $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $-Depreciation (15 years) $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903Net Income $ 1,656,097 $ 1,795,747 $ 1,942,379 $ 2,096,343 $ 2,258,006 $ 2,427,751 $ 2,605,984 $ 2,793,128 $ 2,989,630 $ 3,195,956 $ 3,412,599 $ 3,640,075 $ 3,878,923 $ 4,129,715 $ 4,393,046Taxes 20% $ 331,219 $ 359,149 $ 388,476 $ 419,269 $ 451,601 $ 485,550 $ 521,197 $ 558,626 $ 597,926 $ 639,191 $ 682,520 $ 728,015 $ 775,785 $ 825,943 $ 878,609Income after tax $ 1,324,877 $ 1,436,597 $ 1,553,903 $ 1,677,075 $ 1,806,405 $ 1,942,201 $ 2,084,787 $ 2,234,503 $ 2,391,704 $ 2,556,765 $ 2,730,080 $ 2,912,060 $ 3,103,139 $ 3,303,772 $ 3,514,437(add back depreciation) $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903 $ 1,136,903Cash Flow $ 2,461,781 $ 2,573,501 $ 2,690,807 $ 2,813,978 $ 2,943,308 $ 3,079,104 $ 3,221,690 $ 3,371,406 $ 3,528,607 $ 3,693,668 $ 3,866,983 $ 4,048,963 $ 4,240,042 $ 4,440,675 $ 4,651,340Discounted cash flow $ 2,122,846 $ 1,913,651 $ 1,725,401 $ 1,555,956 $ 1,403,400 $ 1,266,017 $ 1,142,268 $ 1,030,776 $ 930,306 $ 839,749 $ 758,112 $ 684,501 $ 618,115 $ 558,236 $ 504,215Cumulative discounted cash flow $ (17,053,549) $ (14,930,703) $ (13,017,053) $ (11,291,652) $ (9,735,695) $ (8,332,295) $ (7,066,278) $ (5,924,010) $ (4,893,234) $ (3,962,928) $ (3,123,178) $ (2,365,067) $ (1,680,566) $ (1,062,451) $ (504,215) $(0)InputsAnnual Escallation Rate (products) 5%Annual Escallation Rate (supplies) 3%Annual Discount Rate 15.97%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%$400 $425 $450 $475 $500 $525 $55098