<strong>UNISCI</strong> Discussion Papers, Nº 33 (Octubre / October 2013) ISSN 1696-2206The interest in confe<strong>de</strong>ration, however, was hardly new compared to previous attemptsto resolve Sudan's North-South conflict. John Garang <strong>de</strong> Mabior, the SPLM chairman,proposed a system of confe<strong>de</strong>ration for Sudan during peace negotiations first in Abuja inNigeria in 1992 and later during negotiation with the Sudanese government in Kenya between2002 and 2005, which was turned down by National Congress Party (NCP). 13 The former<strong>de</strong>puty SPLM chairman and former governor of Blue Nile State, Malik Agar Eyre who laterquitted the Sudanese government to lead SPLM-Sudan, 14 floated the i<strong>de</strong>a in the Naivashapeace celebration on 9 th January 2008 for the whole country. This time around, the NCPexpressed readiness to discuss it with the SPLM. 15 A number of articles followed in sparsesuccession. For example, confe<strong>de</strong>ration was impressed upon the CPA partners in May 2009 inan informative article by Adullahi Osman El Tom, from the Justice and Equality Movementas one of potential options for post-referendum governance of Sudan in case of a SouthSudanese vote for in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce. 16 In January 2010, Hamid Ali El Tigani wrote in the SudanTribune about a confe<strong>de</strong>ral system for Sudan. 17Overall, these early calls to <strong>de</strong>bate confe<strong>de</strong>ration seemed to have fallen on <strong>de</strong>af ears anddid not either take the headlines or got the attention the subject <strong>de</strong>served. At that time, 2011seemed to be far off, and any talk of confe<strong>de</strong>ration was seen as an attempt to subvert theexercise of right to self-<strong>de</strong>termination by South Sudan. However, this author noted that theinterest in confe<strong>de</strong>ration was rekindled once again after publishing an article on the subject inJune 2010. 18 Ever since, there has been a growing interest in confe<strong>de</strong>ration as a 'third way'between total unity and complete in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce of the South. 19 At the same time, manyvoices expressed reservation, 20 even outright rejection of confe<strong>de</strong>ration as a substitute forpossible relations between the North and the South after referendum since Wednesday 10 th November 2010. Andthat Presi<strong>de</strong>nt Mbeki ma<strong>de</strong> 4 proposals in July, one of which was confe<strong>de</strong>ral union. “Egypt proposesconfe<strong>de</strong>ration between north and south Sudan”, Al-Masry Al-Youm, (3 November 2010). The paper reported thatforeign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit proposed the establishment of a confe<strong>de</strong>ration between North and SouthSudan when he addressed Shura Council saying that North and South will still be in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt states.13 Al-Hilo, Mohamed: “When they ask you?”, Akbar Al-Youm, Khartoum, 11 November 2010. The author wrotein his column to tell how Southerners were promised confe<strong>de</strong>ration if they voted for Sudan separation fromEgypt in Parliament in 1956, only for the promise to be broken. Then quoted the late Southern politicianStanslaus Wieu telling the Sudanese parliament: “There will come a day when you ill offer confe<strong>de</strong>ration on thestreet for free, and you will find no body willing to buy it…”14 Previously known as SPLM-North.15Sulieman, Mahmoud A.: “Confe<strong>de</strong>ral System for Sudan”, Sudan Tribune, 8 January 2008, athttp://sudantribune.com.16 El Tom, A. Osman: “Towards Confe<strong>de</strong>ration between In<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt South and North Sudan”, Sudan Tribune,28 May 2009, at http://www.sudantribune.com.17 Eltgani, Hamid Ali: “How to Govern Sudan – a Quest for Confe<strong>de</strong>ration”, Sudan Tribune, 11 January 2010, athttp://www.sudantribune.com.18 Akec, John A.: “Call for Renewable Confe<strong>de</strong>ration in post-referendum Sudan”, Sudan Tribune, 8 June 2010.An Arabic translation was published by Ahmed Hassen Mohamed Salih appeared in Rayaam newspaper, 18 June2010.19Heavens, Andrew: “Sudan to Mull North-South Confe<strong>de</strong>ration”, Reuters Africa, 10 July 2010, athttp://www.af.reuters.net. Akec, John A.: “To Confe<strong>de</strong>rate or not to Confe<strong>de</strong>rate is a Matter of Strategy”, SudanTribune, 14 September 2010, at http://www.sudantribune.com. Biar, Zakaria Manyok: “Confe<strong>de</strong>ration for Sudan,Is it a good i<strong>de</strong>a?”, Sudan Tribune, 5 July 2010, at http://www.sudantribune.com; Ashworth, John: CPA AlertNo. 2, IKV Pax Christi report, (September 2010).20Talley, Thomas: “Southern Sudan – The Four Theses”, Small Arms Journal, 22 October 2010, athttp://www.smallarmsjournal.org. Talley views the pursuit of confe<strong>de</strong>ration by the US policy makers as a tacticto <strong>de</strong>lay North-South war breaking out too soon. “Demand the process ren<strong>de</strong>rs a pre<strong>de</strong>termined outcome ofconfe<strong>de</strong>ration (i.e., nominal unity, but greater autonomy for southern Sudan). This COA [course of action]promises to avoid war; but that is a false promise – it will simply <strong>de</strong>lay war a little longer. War will comebecause there are important actors on both si<strong>de</strong>s of the conflict who want, and need, a war”, p. 3.156
<strong>UNISCI</strong> Discussion Papers, Nº 33 (Octubre / October 2013) ISSN 1696-2206complete in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce of South Sudan. 21 This reflects the old adage: information too early isnot recognized, and information too late is useless.In the midst of all the uncertainty and initial pessimism, the referendum vote for SouthSudan took place peacefully on the 9 th January 2011 and resulted in overwhelming vote infavor of secession. Six months later, and precisely on the 9 th July 2011, South Sudan <strong>de</strong>claredits in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce and immediately enjoyed the recognition of the International Community;specifically the UN, the African Union, and the EU. But because of too many unresolvedissues between South Sudan and Sudan that inclu<strong>de</strong>d oil sharing and assets distribution, thestatus of Abyei, as well as the situation in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur, therelations between the two Sudans <strong>de</strong>teriorated very quickly. The relationships hit rock bottomwhen South Sudan was provoked to shut down oil production in January 2012, and in April2012 war broke out between Sudan and South Sudan over the contested bor<strong>de</strong>r town ofPanthou. 22 In September 2012, the two countries with help of the AU High LevelImplementation Panel un<strong>de</strong>r lea<strong>de</strong>rship of Thabo Mbeki, signed a cooperation agreement inAddis Ababa. 23 In March 2013, the governments of Sudan and South Sudan moved a stepforward by signing an Implementation Matrix Agreement that would put the cooperationagreement into effect on the ground.With all the problems that still beset relations between the two Sudans, it is the righttime to revisit the utility of confe<strong>de</strong>ration or any of its closer cousins 24 as an ultimate healer ofthese relations as well as reopening the <strong>de</strong>bate on this vital theme.The paper will examine why this is an invaluable strategy for both the North and theSouth to adopt in short or medium term to smooth out transition to South Sudanin<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce, and in long term as a means for propelling the two parts of Sudan back into apath of voluntary unity or achieve some form of economic union. 25 It will also attempt toanswer such questions as: What chance is there that such an i<strong>de</strong>a will find acceptance fromthe South Sudanese? Who will be against it? Who is for it? What is there in it for eachstakehol<strong>de</strong>r (SPLM, NCP, Northern and Southern parties)? And what are the positions of theSPLM and the NCP in regards to confe<strong>de</strong>rations? And finally to look into what structure theNorth-South confe<strong>de</strong>ration might take as well as possible powers can be assigned toconfe<strong>de</strong>rate authority. However, the paper will not necessarily follow the same or<strong>de</strong>r.21 Chol, Carlo James: “Mr. Malik Agar and Confe<strong>de</strong>ration”, Fashoda, 17 January 2008, at http:// Fashoda.org.Awolich, Abraham A: “The Call for Confe<strong>de</strong>ration is Conspiracy”, Sudan Tribune, (19 January 2008) athttp://www.sudantribune.com. Okuk, James: “Confe<strong>de</strong>ration for South Sudan a Betrayal to Self-Determination”,Sudan Tribune, 18 January 2008, at http://www.sudantribune.com.22 Also called Heglig by Sudan government.23 Akec, John A.: “Addis Ababa Agreement is Bony Fish worth Chewing”, Sudan Tribune, 12 December 2012,at http://www.Sudantribune.com.24 Such as the forms of economic union that binds EU member states.25 This draws on previous work: Akec, John A.: “Why referendum in post-referendum Sudan is key toprosperous, stable, and good neighbourliness between two Sudans?”, Paper presented at conference on PostElection Governments of Sudan: How are they preparing for referendum on self-<strong>de</strong>termination, St. AntonyCollege, Oxford, 13 November 2010.157
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