Economic Report of the President

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Research AssistantsDerek A. Haas .............................. Finance, Regulation, and TechnologyNamita K. Kalyan......................... MacroeconomicsDaniel L. Ramsey.......................... Public FinanceTherese C. Scharlemann ............... MacroeconomicsJames W. Soldano ......................... International FinanceStatistical OfficeMrs. Furlong directs the Statistical Office. The Statistical Office maintainsand updates the Council’s statistical information, oversees the publication ofthe monthly Economic Indicators and the statistical appendix to the EconomicReport of the President, and verifies statistics in Presidential and Councilmemoranda, testimony, and speeches.Linda A. Reilly.............................. StatisticianBrian A. Amorosi .......................... Program Analyst (Statistical)Dagmara A. Mocala ...................... Research AssistantAdministrative OfficeThe Administrative Office provides general support for the Council’s activities.This includes financial management, human resource management, and travel,facility, security, information, and telecommunications management support.Rosemary M. Rogers ..................... Administrative OfficerBrenda Compton .......................... Financial ManagerOffice of the ChairmanAlice H. Williams ......................... Executive Assistant to the ChairmanSandra F. Daigle............................ Executive Assistant to the Chairmanand Assistant to the Chief of Staff andChief EconomistLisa D. Branch.............................. Executive Assistant to Dr. ForbesMary E. Jones ............................... Executive Assistant to Dr. RosenStaff SupportSharon K. Thomas........................ Administrative Support AssistantJane Tufts and Barbara Pendergast provided editorial assistance in thepreparation of the 2005 Economic Report of the President.Scott E. Carrell served as a senior economist for labor and public financeduring the summer of 2004 and then returned to his position on the facultyof the Air Force Academy. Gerald F. Zukowski and Roger E. Stanley alsoserved at the Council in 2004 on detail from other government agencies.198 | Economic Report of the President
John List and Ted Gayer provided consulting services to the Council during2004.Student Interns during the year were Sarah E. Anders, Mary B. Anderson,Christian M. Bonilla, Eric C. Breitenstein, Matthew J. Burton, DeepaDhume, Michael M. Furchtgott, Sabah M. Khan, Susan J. Li, Joshua S.Meltzer, Barbara J. Merry, Amol S. Navathe, Kirsten D. Powers, Brian K.Smedley, Dagmara K. Tchalakov, and Sean M. Zimmerman. Alexander P.Ryan joined the staff of the Council in January as a student intern.DeparturesThe Council’s senior staff, in most cases, are on leave of absence fromfaculty positions at academic institutions or from other government agenciesor research institutions. Chief Economist Andrew Samwick returned toDartmouth College, where he is a Professor of Economics and Director of theRockefeller Center for Public Policy. The senior economists who resignedduring the year returned to their previous affiliations. They are Karen Dynan(Federal Reserve Board), Ted Gayer (Georgetown University), Eric Helland(Claremont McKenna College), David Meyer (Federal Trade Commission),Mark Showalter (Brigham Young University), Beth Anne Wilson (FederalReserve Board), and Alan Viard (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas).Staff economists are generally graduate students who spend one year withthe Council and then return to complete their dissertations. Those whoreturned to graduate studies in economics in 2004 are: William Congdon(Princeton University), Brent Neiman (Harvard University), and MatthewWeinzierl (Harvard University).Research assistants who resigned during 2004 and went on to furtheremployment or graduate studies were Christine Dobridge (Deutsche Bank),Amanda Kowalski (MIT economics), and Julia Stahl (New York UniversityLaw School).Brandon Schwartz, Information Management Assistant, resigned to pursuegraduate studies.Appendix A | 199
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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C O N T E N T SECONOMIC REPORT OF T
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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the playing field is level for our
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Monetary Policy ...................
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Encouraging FDI ...................
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3-4. The Equivalence of Sales Taxes
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Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent du
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Options for Tax ReformChapter 3, Op
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and better Nation for it. A compreh
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Innovation and the Information Econ
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ecause they do not expect family me
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The Administration has pushed aggre
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C H A P T E R 1The Year in Review a
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Consumer SpendingConsumer spending
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easons for this correlation are dis
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2003, a number of countries that to
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ProductivityRecent productivity gro
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The projected path of inflation as
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strengthen. The forecast is based o
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The growth rate of the economy over
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In sum, potential real GDP is proje
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C H A P T E R 2Expansions Past and
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The behavior of real GDP is similar
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of faltering may be attributable to
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most recent expansions have shown r
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middle of 2003. The more moderate r
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1.2 percent. Employment continued t
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SummaryModerate recessions are foll
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permanent cuts should permanently r
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and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
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Federal government revenues had bee
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Fiscal policy played an especially
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C H A P T E R 3Options for Tax Refo
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High Compliance CostsThe complexity
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a reasonable estimate is that a 10
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Excess BurdenBecause taxes distort
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Box 3-3 — continuedThe bottom 40
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more uniform or pure version of the
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of being collected all at once at t
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would have to differ from state tax
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owner claimed it was for business,
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The current set of saving incentive
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the current system. In addition, so
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C H A P T E R 4ImmigrationIn recent
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TABLE 4-1.— Foreign-Born Share of
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immigrants (also called illegal or
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largest group of immigrants was bor
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employment costs, including wage fl
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Chapter 4 | 103
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wages fall in response to immigrati
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immigrants from Latin America do re
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addition, as migrants leave the cou
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include siblings and adult children
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despite the tremendous growth in th
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The TWP would allow new foreign wor
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C H A P T E R 5Expanding Individual
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This phenomenon, known as the “tr
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producing more of that good. Simila
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In 2002, the President proposed “
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provide evidence of increased profi
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schools are four times as efficient
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low administrative costs, estimated
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Box 5-2: The Benefits of Land Title
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development plan designed by others
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C H A P T E R 6Innovation and theIn
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E-mail is the most common online ac
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Changed circumstances, such as new
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Illegal Acts on the InternetThe Int
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or develop new markets, which can l
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Page 145 and 146: U.S. households connecting to local
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Page 151 and 152: for their property rights. The Admi
Page 153 and 154: C H A P T E R 7The Global HIV/AIDS
Page 155 and 156: Chart 7-1 Estimated HIV Infection L
Page 157 and 158: There is no cure for HIV/AIDS, thou
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Page 161 and 162: and risk reduction have helped redu
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Page 165 and 166: Box 7-1 — continuedfocused on the
Page 167 and 168: Box 7-2 — continuedenhancing coor
Page 169 and 170: ConclusionThe United States and cou
Page 171 and 172: Good Two. In Ricardo’s simple mod
Page 173 and 174: The Impact of Trade on Labor Market
Page 175 and 176: The U.S. Advantage in Services Trad
Page 177 and 178: U.S. firms is associated with a cor
Page 179 and 180: anked the second-best country out o
Page 181 and 182: the Chinese government agreed to el
Page 183 and 184: Trade LiberalizationTariffs and oth
Page 185 and 186: ConclusionThe United States is the
Page 187 and 188: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 189 and 190: Report to the President on theActiv
Page 191 and 192: The Council continued its efforts t
Page 193: The Staff of the Council of Economi
Page 197: Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
Page 200 and 201: PageB-32. Gross saving and investme
Page 202 and 203: PageB-94. Relation of profits after
Page 204 and 205: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 206 and 207: TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
Page 208 and 209: TABLE B-3.—Quantity and price ind
Page 210 and 211: TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
Page 212 and 213: TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
Page 214 and 215: TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
Page 216 and 217: TABLE B-8.—Gross domestic product
Page 218 and 219: TABLE B-10.—Gross value added by
Page 220 and 221: TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
Page 222 and 223: TABLE B-13.—Real gross domestic p
Page 224 and 225: TABLE B-14.—Gross value added of
Page 226 and 227: TABLE B-16.—Personal consumption
Page 228 and 229: TABLE B-18.—Private fixed investm
Page 230 and 231: TABLE B-20.—Government consumptio
Page 232 and 233: TABLE B-22.—Private inventories a
Page 234 and 235: TABLE B-24.—Foreign transactions
Page 236 and 237: TABLE B-26.—Relation of gross dom
Page 238 and 239: TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
Page 240 and 241: TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
Page 242 and 243: TABLE B-30.—Disposition of person
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Year or quarterTABLE B-32.—Gross
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TABLE B-33.—Median money income (
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TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
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TABLE B-36.—Civilian employment a
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TABLE B-38.—Unemployment by demog
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TABLE B-40.—Civilian labor force
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TABLE B-42.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-44.—Unemployment by durat
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TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
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TABLE B-47.—Hours and earnings in
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Year orquarterTABLE B-49.—Product
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
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Year ormonthTABLE B-53.—Industria
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Year or monthTABLE B-55.—New cons
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TABLE B-57.—Manufacturing and tra
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TABLE B-59.—Manufacturers’ new
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Year ormonthTABLE B-61.—Consumer
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TABLE B-62.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-64.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-67.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-68.—Changes in producer p
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TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
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TABLE B-71.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
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TABLE B-74.—Credit market borrowi
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TABLE B-75.—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-77.—Consumer credit outst
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TABLE B-79.—Federal receipts, out
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TABLE B-81.—Federal receipts, out
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TABLE B-83.—Federal and State and
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TABLE B-85.—State and local gover
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End of yearor monthTABLE B-87.—U.
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End of monthTABLE B-89.—Estimated
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TABLE B-91.—Corporate profits by
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TABLE B-93.—Sales, profits, and s
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YearComposite(Dec. 31,2002=5,000) 3
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YearAGRICULTURETABLE B-97.—Farm i
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TABLE B-99.—Farm output and produ
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Year ormonthTABLE B-101.—Agricult
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-103
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TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-106.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
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TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
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TABLE B-112.—Growth rates in real
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