Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B–13.—Real gross domestic product by industry, value added, and percent changes, 1987–2003YearGrossdomesticproductTotalprivateindustriesAgriculture,forestry,fishing,andhuntingMiningConstructionPrivate industriesTotalmanufacturingManufacturingDurablegoodsNondurablegoodsChain-type quantity indexes for value added (2000=100)1987 ........................ 65.958 63.367 71.483 91.661 82.448 60.746 48.859 83.572 72.315 53.070 52.1381988 ........................ 68.684 66.299 64.678 99.992 85.435 64.212 52.843 85.425 70.613 56.444 56.5451989 ........................ 71.116 68.710 71.099 97.072 87.646 65.033 53.696 86.109 79.002 58.603 58.8381990 ........................ 72.451 69.905 74.689 96.157 86.543 64.299 52.963 85.419 84.447 57.318 59.7941991 ........................ 72.329 69.779 75.398 97.638 79.137 63.412 51.496 85.835 85.285 59.387 59.4831992 ........................ 74.734 72.363 83.114 95.694 80.026 65.508 52.742 89.669 85.362 65.037 62.9601993 ........................ 76.731 74.291 72.838 97.020 82.010 68.255 55.173 92.943 85.814 67.135 65.3511994 ........................ 79.816 77.765 84.616 105.327 86.586 73.496 60.173 98.369 89.518 71.346 69.8061995 ........................ 81.814 79.722 73.099 105.681 86.312 76.819 65.218 97.783 93.835 70.800 72.9741996 ........................ 84.842 83.179 80.041 98.850 90.694 79.682 69.120 98.443 95.405 77.261 79.4071997 ........................ 88.658 87.362 88.315 102.463 93.267 84.518 75.335 100.438 91.161 85.648 86.0391998 ........................ 92.359 91.662 86.287 101.682 97.087 90.181 84.355 99.762 90.481 95.431 90.3991999 ........................ 96.469 96.183 89.163 104.300 99.411 94.104 89.627 101.298 94.672 100.412 95.6862000 ........................ 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.0002001 ........................ 100.751 100.908 93.661 94.715 100.163 94.436 94.031 95.034 95.081 107.003 106.9702002 ........................ 102.626 102.755 100.049 92.675 97.529 96.634 95.260 98.584 100.763 108.679 112.6832003 ........................ 105.749 105.906 105.598 86.209 97.279 100.966 101.067 100.929 106.737 106.640 119.014Percent change from year earlier1988 ........................ 4.1 4.6 −9.5 9.1 3.6 5.7 8.2 2.2 −2.4 6.4 8.51989 ........................ 3.5 3.6 9.9 −2.9 2.6 1.3 1.6 .8 11.9 3.8 4.11990 ........................ 1.9 1.7 5.0 −.9 −1.3 −1.1 −1.4 −.8 6.9 −2.2 1.61991 ........................ −.2 −.2 1.0 1.5 −8.6 −1.4 −2.8 .5 1.0 3.6 −.51992 ........................ 3.3 3.7 10.2 −2.0 1.1 3.3 2.4 4.5 .1 9.5 5.81993 ........................ 2.7 2.7 −12.4 1.4 2.5 4.2 4.6 3.7 .5 3.2 3.81994 ........................ 4.0 4.7 16.2 8.6 5.6 7.7 9.1 5.8 4.3 6.3 6.81995 ........................ 2.5 2.5 −13.6 .3 −.3 4.5 8.4 −.6 4.8 −.8 4.51996 ........................ 3.7 4.3 9.5 −6.5 5.1 3.7 6.0 .7 1.7 9.1 8.81997 ........................ 4.5 5.0 10.3 3.7 2.8 6.1 9.0 2.0 −4.4 10.9 8.41998 ........................ 4.2 4.9 −2.3 −.8 4.1 6.7 12.0 −.7 −.7 11.4 5.11999 ........................ 4.5 4.9 3.3 2.6 2.4 4.3 6.2 1.5 4.6 5.2 5.82000 ........................ 3.7 4.0 12.2 −4.1 .6 6.3 11.6 −1.3 5.6 −.4 4.52001 ........................ .8 .9 −6.3 −5.3 .2 −5.6 −6.0 −5.0 −4.9 7.0 7.02002 ........................ 1.9 1.8 6.8 −2.2 −2.6 2.3 1.3 3.7 6.0 1.6 5.32003 ........................ 3.0 3.1 5.5 −7.0 −.3 4.5 6.1 2.4 5.9 −1.9 5.61Consists of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting; mining; construction; and manufacturing.2Consists of utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, andleasing; professional and business services; educational services, health care, and social assistance; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation,and food services; and other services, except government.See next page for continuation of table.UtilitiesWholesaletradeRetailtrade226
TABLE B–13.—Real gross domestic product by industry, value added, and percent changes, 1987–2003—continuedYearTransportationandwarehousingInformationPrivate industries—continuedFinance,insurance,realestate,rental,andleasingProfessionalandbusinessservicesEducationalservices,healthcare,andsocialassistanceArts,entertainment,recreation,accommodation,andfoodservicesOtherservices,exceptgovernmentGovernmentChain-type quantity indexes for value added (2000=100)Privategoodsproducingindustries1Privateservicesproducingindustries21987 .......................................... 55.690 45.764 65.941 60.050 80.273 68.742 84.221 86.753 66.173 62.2561988 .......................................... 57.990 47.649 68.652 64.420 80.570 71.515 89.044 88.812 69.104 65.1861989 .......................................... 59.507 51.150 70.359 68.787 84.002 73.872 92.188 90.984 70.366 68.0331990 .......................................... 62.281 53.420 71.877 72.073 87.047 76.063 94.369 93.215 69.858 69.8771991 .......................................... 65.060 54.441 73.051 69.786 89.285 74.232 91.258 93.658 68.214 70.3191992 .......................................... 68.758 57.568 74.863 72.008 91.728 77.250 92.502 94.134 70.330 73.0741993 .......................................... 71.988 61.445 76.931 73.224 92.199 78.787 95.195 94.055 72.128 75.0471994 .......................................... 77.827 65.223 78.506 75.430 92.413 80.604 98.624 94.407 77.818 77.7451995 .......................................... 80.473 67.996 80.732 77.382 93.503 83.542 99.714 94.250 79.572 79.7731996 .......................................... 84.585 72.714 82.893 82.053 94.144 86.796 99.072 94.768 82.596 83.3771997 .......................................... 88.373 74.559 86.786 87.432 94.809 90.310 99.291 95.864 87.229 87.4071998 .......................................... 91.454 82.252 90.201 91.976 95.603 93.446 101.871 96.923 91.878 91.5911999 .......................................... 95.301 95.467 94.994 96.898 97.304 96.836 100.236 98.009 95.402 96.4342000 .......................................... 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.0002001 .......................................... 97.354 104.034 103.858 99.346 103.186 99.292 98.337 100.794 95.654 102.5842002 .......................................... 99.178 103.746 105.301 100.616 107.102 101.124 97.525 102.303 96.726 104.6712003 .......................................... 104.183 109.630 108.684 104.137 110.071 103.065 97.996 103.709 99.400 107.974Percent change from year earlier1988 .......................................... 4.1 4.1 4.1 7.3 0.4 4.0 5.7 2.4 4.4 4.71989 .......................................... 2.6 7.3 2.5 6.8 4.3 3.3 3.5 2.4 1.8 4.41990 .......................................... 4.7 4.4 2.2 4.8 3.6 3.0 2.4 2.5 −.7 2.71991 .......................................... 4.5 1.9 1.6 −3.2 2.6 −2.4 −3.3 .5 −2.4 .61992 .......................................... 5.7 5.7 2.5 3.2 2.7 4.1 1.4 .5 3.1 3.91993 .......................................... 4.7 6.7 2.8 1.7 .5 2.0 2.9 −.1 2.6 2.71994 .......................................... 8.1 6.1 2.0 3.0 .2 2.3 3.6 .4 7.9 3.61995 .......................................... 3.4 4.3 2.8 2.6 1.2 3.6 1.1 −.2 2.3 2.61996 .......................................... 5.1 6.9 2.7 6.0 .7 3.9 −.6 .5 3.8 4.51997 .......................................... 4.5 2.5 4.7 6.6 .7 4.0 .2 1.2 5.6 4.81998 .......................................... 3.5 10.3 3.9 5.2 .8 3.5 2.6 1.1 5.3 4.81999 .......................................... 4.2 16.1 5.3 5.4 1.8 3.6 −1.6 1.1 3.8 5.32000 .......................................... 4.9 4.7 5.3 3.2 2.8 3.3 −.2 2.0 4.8 3.72001 .......................................... −2.6 4.0 3.9 −.7 3.2 −.7 −1.7 .8 −4.3 2.62002 .......................................... 1.9 −.3 1.4 1.3 3.8 1.8 −.8 1.5 1.1 2.02003 .......................................... 5.0 5.7 3.2 3.5 2.8 1.9 .5 1.4 2.8 3.2Note.—Data are based on the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).See Note, Table B–12.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.227
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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C O N T E N T SECONOMIC REPORT OF T
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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the playing field is level for our
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Monetary Policy ...................
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Encouraging FDI ...................
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3-4. The Equivalence of Sales Taxes
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Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent du
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Options for Tax ReformChapter 3, Op
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and better Nation for it. A compreh
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Innovation and the Information Econ
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ecause they do not expect family me
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The Administration has pushed aggre
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C H A P T E R 1The Year in Review a
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Consumer SpendingConsumer spending
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easons for this correlation are dis
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2003, a number of countries that to
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ProductivityRecent productivity gro
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The projected path of inflation as
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strengthen. The forecast is based o
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The growth rate of the economy over
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In sum, potential real GDP is proje
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C H A P T E R 2Expansions Past and
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The behavior of real GDP is similar
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of faltering may be attributable to
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most recent expansions have shown r
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middle of 2003. The more moderate r
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1.2 percent. Employment continued t
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SummaryModerate recessions are foll
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permanent cuts should permanently r
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and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
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Federal government revenues had bee
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Fiscal policy played an especially
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C H A P T E R 3Options for Tax Refo
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High Compliance CostsThe complexity
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a reasonable estimate is that a 10
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Excess BurdenBecause taxes distort
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Box 3-3 — continuedThe bottom 40
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more uniform or pure version of the
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of being collected all at once at t
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would have to differ from state tax
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owner claimed it was for business,
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The current set of saving incentive
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the current system. In addition, so
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C H A P T E R 4ImmigrationIn recent
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TABLE 4-1.— Foreign-Born Share of
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immigrants (also called illegal or
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largest group of immigrants was bor
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employment costs, including wage fl
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Chapter 4 | 103
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wages fall in response to immigrati
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immigrants from Latin America do re
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addition, as migrants leave the cou
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include siblings and adult children
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despite the tremendous growth in th
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The TWP would allow new foreign wor
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C H A P T E R 5Expanding Individual
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This phenomenon, known as the “tr
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producing more of that good. Simila
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In 2002, the President proposed “
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provide evidence of increased profi
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schools are four times as efficient
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low administrative costs, estimated
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Box 5-2: The Benefits of Land Title
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development plan designed by others
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C H A P T E R 6Innovation and theIn
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E-mail is the most common online ac
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Changed circumstances, such as new
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Illegal Acts on the InternetThe Int
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or develop new markets, which can l
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inflation factor for the price cap
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U.S. households connecting to local
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garbling their transmissions. To li
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from 51.3 percent in December 1999
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for their property rights. The Admi
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C H A P T E R 7The Global HIV/AIDS
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Chart 7-1 Estimated HIV Infection L
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There is no cure for HIV/AIDS, thou
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AIDS is more damaging to a househol
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and risk reduction have helped redu
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only one price, the drug companies
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Box 7-1 — continuedfocused on the
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Box 7-2 — continuedenhancing coor
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ConclusionThe United States and cou
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Page 181 and 182: the Chinese government agreed to el
Page 183 and 184: Trade LiberalizationTariffs and oth
Page 185 and 186: ConclusionThe United States is the
Page 187 and 188: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 189 and 190: Report to the President on theActiv
Page 191 and 192: The Council continued its efforts t
Page 193 and 194: The Staff of the Council of Economi
Page 195 and 196: John List and Ted Gayer provided co
Page 197: Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
Page 200 and 201: PageB-32. Gross saving and investme
Page 202 and 203: PageB-94. Relation of profits after
Page 204 and 205: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 206 and 207: TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
Page 208 and 209: TABLE B-3.—Quantity and price ind
Page 210 and 211: TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
Page 212 and 213: TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
Page 214 and 215: TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
Page 216 and 217: TABLE B-8.—Gross domestic product
Page 218 and 219: TABLE B-10.—Gross value added by
Page 220 and 221: TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
Page 224 and 225: TABLE B-14.—Gross value added of
Page 226 and 227: TABLE B-16.—Personal consumption
Page 228 and 229: TABLE B-18.—Private fixed investm
Page 230 and 231: TABLE B-20.—Government consumptio
Page 232 and 233: TABLE B-22.—Private inventories a
Page 234 and 235: TABLE B-24.—Foreign transactions
Page 236 and 237: TABLE B-26.—Relation of gross dom
Page 238 and 239: TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
Page 240 and 241: TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
Page 242 and 243: TABLE B-30.—Disposition of person
Page 244 and 245: Year or quarterTABLE B-32.—Gross
Page 246 and 247: TABLE B-33.—Median money income (
Page 248 and 249: TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
Page 250 and 251: TABLE B-36.—Civilian employment a
Page 252 and 253: TABLE B-38.—Unemployment by demog
Page 254 and 255: TABLE B-40.—Civilian labor force
Page 256 and 257: TABLE B-42.—Civilian unemployment
Page 258 and 259: TABLE B-44.—Unemployment by durat
Page 260 and 261: TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
Page 262 and 263: TABLE B-47.—Hours and earnings in
Page 264 and 265: Year orquarterTABLE B-49.—Product
Page 266 and 267: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
Page 268 and 269: Year ormonthTABLE B-53.—Industria
Page 270 and 271: Year or monthTABLE B-55.—New cons
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TABLE B-57.—Manufacturing and tra
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TABLE B-59.—Manufacturers’ new
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Year ormonthTABLE B-61.—Consumer
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TABLE B-62.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-64.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-67.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-68.—Changes in producer p
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TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
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TABLE B-71.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
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TABLE B-74.—Credit market borrowi
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TABLE B-75.—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-77.—Consumer credit outst
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TABLE B-79.—Federal receipts, out
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TABLE B-81.—Federal receipts, out
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TABLE B-83.—Federal and State and
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TABLE B-85.—State and local gover
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End of yearor monthTABLE B-87.—U.
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End of monthTABLE B-89.—Estimated
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TABLE B-91.—Corporate profits by
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TABLE B-93.—Sales, profits, and s
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YearComposite(Dec. 31,2002=5,000) 3
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YearAGRICULTURETABLE B-97.—Farm i
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TABLE B-99.—Farm output and produ
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Year ormonthTABLE B-101.—Agricult
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-103
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TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-106.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
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TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
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TABLE B-112.—Growth rates in real
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