Economic Report of the President

middle of 2003. The more moderate rate of employment growth is at leastpartly explained by unusually robust growth in productivity—which furtherindicates higher future real wage growth. Unemployment rose by less than inthe last recession and expansion. Both of the most recent expansions werepreceded by relatively mild recessions: the drop in real GDP was relativelysmall, and consumption did not drop at all in the most recent recession.Symmetry in Recessions and ExpansionsThe last two expansions, though moderate, were preceded by shallowrecessions. Past recessions were deeper and subsequent expansions more rapid.Together, the two sets of observations suggest that the rate of expansion maybe related to the rate of contraction. This section evaluates that hypothesis.Real GDPChart 2-8 plots the total percent contraction in real GDP during allrecessions since 1960 against the percent expansion in real GDP in the fourquarters following the trough. The latter time period is chosen to allow auniform standard of comparison across expansions. Each point is labeled byChapter 2 | 57