Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B–81.—Federal receipts, outlays, surplus or deficit, and debt, fiscal years 2001–2006[Millions of dollars; fiscal years]ActualEstimatesDescription2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS:Total receipts .......................................................................... 1,991,194 1,853,173 1,782,342 1,880,071 2,052,845 2,177,550Total outlays ........................................................................... 1,863,033 2,010,972 2,159,917 2,292,215 2,479,404 2,567,617Total surplus or deficit (−) ............................................ 128,161 −157,799 −377,575 −412,144 −426,559 −390,067On-budget receipts ................................................................. 1,483,675 1,337,852 1,258,500 1,345,326 1,491,482 1,584,359On-budget outlays .................................................................. 1,516,195 1,655,310 1,796,908 1,912,704 2,080,022 2,144,300On-budget surplus or deficit (−) ................................... −32,520 −317,458 −538,408 −567,378 −588,540 −559,941Off-budget receipts ................................................................ 507,519 515,321 523,842 534,745 561,363 593,191Off-budget outlays ................................................................. 346,838 355,662 363,009 379,511 399,382 423,317Off-budget surplus or deficit (−) .................................. 160,681 159,659 160,833 155,234 161,981 169,874OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF PERIOD:Gross Federal debt ................................................................. 5,769,881 6,198,401 6,760,014 7,354,673 8,031,387 8,707,627Held by Federal Government accounts .......................... 2,450,266 2,657,974 2,846,570 3,059,129 3,310,162 3,586,806Held by the public .......................................................... 3,319,615 3,540,427 3,913,443 4,295,544 4,721,225 5,120,821Federal Reserve System ........................................ 534,135 604,191 656,116 700,341 .................. ..................Other ...................................................................... 2,785,480 2,936,235 3,257,327 3,595,203 .................. ..................RECEIPTS: ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ............................. 1,991,194 1,853,173 1,782,342 1,880,071 2,052,845 2,177,550Individual income taxes ......................................................... 994,339 858,345 793,699 808,959 893,704 966,877Corporation income taxes ...................................................... 151,075 148,044 131,778 189,371 226,526 220,258Social insurance and retirement receipts ............................. 693,967 700,760 712,978 733,407 773,731 818,834On-budget ....................................................................... 186,448 185,439 189,136 198,662 212,368 225,643Off-budget ...................................................................... 507,519 515,321 523,842 534,745 561,363 593,191Excise taxes ............................................................................ 66,232 66,989 67,524 69,855 74,013 75,566Estate and gift taxes ............................................................. 28,400 26,507 21,959 24,831 23,754 26,121Customs duties and fees ....................................................... 19,369 18,602 19,862 21,083 24,674 28,256Miscellaneous receipts ........................................................... 37,812 33,926 34,542 32,565 36,443 41,638Deposits of earnings by FederalReserve System .......................................................... 26,124 23,683 21,878 19,652 24,102 28,528All other 1 ....................................................................... 11,688 10,243 12,664 12,913 12,341 13,110OUTLAYS: ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET .............................. 1,863,033 2,010,972 2,159,917 2,292,215 2,479,404 2,567,617National defense .................................................................... 304,882 348,555 404,920 455,908 465,871 447,398International affairs ............................................................... 16,493 22,351 21,209 26,891 31,961 38,447General science, space and technology ................................ 19,784 20,767 20,873 23,053 24,021 23,967Energy ..................................................................................... 9 475 −735 −166 1,441 2,121Natural resources and environment ...................................... 25,623 29,454 29,703 30,725 30,960 31,163Agriculture .............................................................................. 26,253 21,966 22,497 15,440 30,504 26,020Commerce and housing credit ............................................... 5,739 −390 735 5,273 10,653 6,816On-budget ....................................................................... 3,437 261 5,980 9,403 11,663 2,753Off-budget ...................................................................... 2,302 −651 −5,245 −4,130 −1,010 4,063Transportation ........................................................................ 54,447 61,833 67,069 64,626 68,486 70,673Community and regional development .................................. 11,773 12,981 18,850 15,797 20,141 19,097Education, training, employment, and social services ......... 57,143 70,544 82,568 87,945 96,254 88,703Health ...................................................................................... 172,270 196,544 219,576 240,134 257,532 268,396Medicare ................................................................................. 217,384 230,855 249,433 269,360 295,432 345,746Income security ...................................................................... 269,615 312,530 334,432 332,837 350,918 359,535Social security ........................................................................ 432,958 455,980 474,680 495,548 519,686 544,821On-budget ....................................................................... 11,701 13,969 13,279 14,348 16,388 16,066Off-budget ...................................................................... 421,257 442,011 461,401 481,200 503,298 528,755Veterans benefits and services ............................................. 45,039 50,984 57,022 59,779 68,161 68,390Administration of justice ....................................................... 30,205 35,081 35,323 45,535 40,657 43,099General government ............................................................... 14,260 16,905 23,071 21,822 18,855 17,754Net interest ............................................................................. 206,167 170,949 153,073 160,245 177,948 211,076On-budget ....................................................................... 274,978 247,769 236,618 246,473 269,943 309,220Off-budget ...................................................................... −68,811 −76,820 −83,545 −86,228 −91,995 −98,144Allowances .............................................................................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 34,899 24,168Undistributed offsetting receipts ........................................... −47,011 −47,392 −54,382 −58,537 −64,976 −69,773On-budget ....................................................................... −39,101 −38,514 −44,780 −47,206 −54,065 −58,416Off-budget ...................................................................... −7,910 −8,878 −9,602 −11,331 −10,911 −11,3571Beginning 1984, includes universal service fund receipts.Note.—See Note, Table B–78.Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.306
TABLE B–82.—Federal and State and local government current receipts and expenditures, nationalincome and product accounts (NIPA), 1959–2004[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]Year orquarterCurrentreceiptsTotal government Federal Government State and local government Addendum:CurrentexpendituresNetgovernmentsaving(NIPA)CurrentreceiptsCurrentexpendituresNetFederalGovernmentsaving(NIPA)CurrentreceiptsCurrentexpendituresNetState andlocalgovernmentsaving(NIPA)Grantsin-aidtoStateandlocalgovernments1959 ........................... 123.0 115.8 7.1 87.0 83.6 3.3 40.6 36.9 3.8 3.81960 ........................... 134.4 122.9 11.5 93.9 86.7 7.2 44.5 40.2 4.3 4.01961 ........................... 139.0 132.1 6.9 95.5 92.8 2.6 48.1 43.8 4.3 4.51962 ........................... 150.6 142.8 7.8 103.6 101.1 2.5 52.0 46.8 5.2 5.01963 ........................... 162.2 151.1 11.1 111.8 106.4 5.4 56.0 50.3 5.7 5.61964 ........................... 166.6 159.2 7.4 111.8 110.8 1.0 61.3 54.9 6.4 6.51965 ........................... 180.3 170.4 9.9 120.9 117.6 3.3 66.5 60.0 6.5 7.21966 ........................... 202.8 192.8 10.0 137.9 135.7 2.3 74.9 67.2 7.8 10.11967 ........................... 217.6 220.0 −2.4 146.9 156.2 −9.4 82.5 75.5 7.0 11.71968 ........................... 252.0 246.8 5.2 171.2 173.5 −2.3 93.5 86.0 7.5 12.71969 ........................... 283.4 266.7 16.7 192.5 183.8 8.7 105.5 97.5 8.0 14.61970 ........................... 286.7 294.8 −8.1 186.0 201.1 −15.2 120.1 113.0 7.1 19.31971 ........................... 303.4 325.3 −21.9 191.7 220.0 −28.4 134.9 128.5 6.5 23.21972 ........................... 346.8 355.5 −8.8 220.1 244.4 −24.4 158.4 142.8 15.6 31.71973 ........................... 390.0 385.6 4.4 250.4 261.7 −11.3 174.3 158.6 15.7 34.81974 ........................... 431.3 435.8 −4.4 279.5 293.3 −13.8 188.1 178.7 9.3 36.31975 ........................... 441.6 508.2 −66.6 277.2 346.2 −69.0 209.6 207.1 2.5 45.11976 ........................... 505.5 549.9 −44.4 322.5 374.3 −51.7 233.7 226.3 7.4 50.71977 ........................... 566.8 597.7 −31.0 363.4 407.5 −44.1 259.9 246.8 13.1 56.61978 ........................... 645.6 653.4 −7.8 423.5 450.0 −26.5 287.6 268.9 18.7 65.51979 ........................... 728.2 726.5 1.7 486.2 497.5 −11.3 308.4 295.4 13.0 66.31980 ........................... 798.0 842.8 −44.8 532.1 585.7 −53.6 338.2 329.4 8.8 72.31981 ........................... 917.2 962.9 −45.7 619.4 672.7 −53.3 370.2 362.7 7.6 72.51982 ........................... 938.5 1,072.6 −134.1 616.6 748.5 −131.9 391.4 393.6 −2.2 69.51983 ........................... 999.4 1,167.5 −168.1 642.3 815.4 −173.0 428.6 423.7 4.9 71.61984 ........................... 1,112.5 1,256.6 −144.1 709.0 877.1 −168.1 480.2 456.2 23.9 76.71985 ........................... 1,213.5 1,366.1 −152.6 773.3 948.2 −175.0 521.1 498.7 22.3 80.91986 ........................... 1,289.3 1,459.1 −169.9 815.2 1,006.0 −190.8 561.6 540.7 21.0 87.61987 ........................... 1,403.2 1,535.8 −132.6 896.6 1,041.6 −145.0 590.6 578.1 12.4 83.91988 ........................... 1,502.2 1,618.7 −116.6 958.2 1,092.7 −134.5 635.5 617.6 17.9 91.61989 ........................... 1,626.3 1,735.6 −109.3 1,037.4 1,167.5 −130.1 687.3 666.5 20.8 98.31990 ........................... 1,707.8 1,872.6 −164.8 1,081.5 1,253.5 −172.0 737.8 730.5 7.2 111.41991 ........................... 1,758.8 1,976.7 −217.9 1,101.3 1,315.0 −213.7 789.2 793.3 −4.2 131.61992 ........................... 1,843.7 2,140.4 −296.7 1,147.2 1,444.6 −297.4 845.7 845.0 .7 149.11993 ........................... 1,945.8 2,218.4 −272.6 1,222.5 1,496.0 −273.5 886.9 886.0 .9 163.71994 ........................... 2,089.0 2,290.8 −201.9 1,320.8 1,533.1 −212.3 942.9 932.4 10.5 174.71995 ........................... 2,212.6 2,397.6 −184.9 1,406.5 1,603.5 −197.0 990.2 978.2 12.0 184.11996 ........................... 2,376.1 2,492.1 −116.0 1,524.0 1,665.8 −141.8 1,043.3 1,017.5 25.8 191.21997 ........................... 2,551.9 2,568.6 −16.7 1,653.1 1,708.9 −55.8 1,097.4 1,058.3 39.1 198.61998 ........................... 2,724.2 2,633.4 90.8 1,773.8 1,734.9 38.8 1,163.2 1,111.2 52.0 212.81999 ........................... 2,895.0 2,741.0 154.0 1,891.2 1,787.6 103.6 1,236.7 1,186.3 50.4 232.92000 ........................... 3,125.9 2,886.5 239.4 2,053.8 1,864.4 189.5 1,319.5 1,269.5 50.0 247.32001 ........................... 3,113.1 3,061.6 51.5 2,016.2 1,969.5 46.7 1,373.0 1,368.2 4.8 276.12002 ........................... 2,954.7 3,234.3 −279.5 1,847.3 2,101.8 −254.5 1,411.9 1,436.9 −25.0 304.42003 ........................... 3,032.0 3,399.7 −367.8 1,877.0 2,241.6 −364.5 1,494.9 1,498.1 −3.2 339.92004 p ......................... .............. 3,559.2 ................ .............. 2,341.7 ................ .............. 1,567.9 ................ 350.42000: I ........................ 3,091.1 2,822.4 268.7 2,035.7 1,823.0 212.7 1,294.4 1,238.5 55.9 239.0II ....................... 3,121.1 2,880.2 240.9 2,044.9 1,863.5 181.4 1,319.0 1,259.5 59.5 242.8III ...................... 3,142.3 2,902.1 240.2 2,066.8 1,875.5 191.2 1,330.5 1,281.6 49.0 255.0IV ...................... 3,149.3 2,941.4 207.9 2,068.0 1,895.5 172.5 1,333.9 1,298.5 35.4 252.62001: I ........................ 3,189.9 3,000.8 189.2 2,089.2 1,932.6 156.6 1,367.2 1,334.7 32.5 266.5II ....................... 3,199.6 3,050.2 149.4 2,080.5 1,956.9 123.6 1,397.4 1,371.6 25.8 278.3III ...................... 2,977.4 3,074.7 −97.2 1,895.4 1,984.0 −88.6 1,354.8 1,363.4 −8.6 272.8IV ...................... 3,085.5 3,120.8 −35.3 1,999.6 2,004.3 −4.7 1,372.5 1,403.1 −30.6 286.62002: I ........................ 2,933.7 3,171.0 −237.3 1,844.6 2,053.1 −208.5 1,380.9 1,409.8 −28.8 291.9II ....................... 2,950.5 3,225.7 −275.2 1,850.5 2,102.1 −251.6 1,404.1 1,427.7 −23.6 304.2III ...................... 2,966.5 3,243.0 −276.5 1,847.9 2,103.1 −255.1 1,423.9 1,445.3 −21.3 305.4IV ...................... 2,968.3 3,297.4 −329.0 1,846.2 2,148.8 −302.7 1,438.5 1,464.8 −26.3 316.32003: I ........................ 3,012.0 3,342.5 −330.6 1,888.6 2,170.2 −281.6 1,437.7 1,486.6 −49.0 314.3II ....................... 3,042.0 3,412.0 −370.1 1,902.5 2,266.9 −364.4 1,484.6 1,490.2 −5.7 345.1III ...................... 2,984.8 3,411.3 −426.5 1,816.4 2,249.4 −433.0 1,511.4 1,504.9 6.5 343.0IV ...................... 3,089.2 3,433.0 −343.9 1,900.6 2,279.8 −379.2 1,545.8 1,510.5 35.3 357.22004: I ........................ 3,120.0 3,499.2 −379.2 1,915.3 2,306.3 −391.0 1,550.6 1,538.8 11.8 346.0II ....................... 3,181.1 3,542.8 −361.7 1,949.1 2,329.1 −380.0 1,583.9 1,565.7 18.3 351.9III ...................... 3,189.3 3,568.9 −379.6 1,956.7 2,340.8 −384.1 1,574.7 1,570.2 4.5 342.1IV p .................... .............. 3,626.1 ................ .............. 2,390.7 ................ .............. 1,596.9 ................ 361.6Note.—Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments are reflected in Federal current expenditures and State and local current receipts.Total government current receipts and expenditures have been adjusted to eliminate this duplication.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.307
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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C O N T E N T SECONOMIC REPORT OF T
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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the playing field is level for our
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Monetary Policy ...................
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Encouraging FDI ...................
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3-4. The Equivalence of Sales Taxes
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Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent du
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Options for Tax ReformChapter 3, Op
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and better Nation for it. A compreh
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Innovation and the Information Econ
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ecause they do not expect family me
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The Administration has pushed aggre
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C H A P T E R 1The Year in Review a
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Consumer SpendingConsumer spending
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easons for this correlation are dis
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2003, a number of countries that to
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ProductivityRecent productivity gro
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The projected path of inflation as
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strengthen. The forecast is based o
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The growth rate of the economy over
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In sum, potential real GDP is proje
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C H A P T E R 2Expansions Past and
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The behavior of real GDP is similar
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of faltering may be attributable to
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most recent expansions have shown r
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middle of 2003. The more moderate r
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1.2 percent. Employment continued t
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SummaryModerate recessions are foll
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permanent cuts should permanently r
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and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
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Federal government revenues had bee
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Fiscal policy played an especially
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C H A P T E R 3Options for Tax Refo
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High Compliance CostsThe complexity
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a reasonable estimate is that a 10
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Excess BurdenBecause taxes distort
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Box 3-3 — continuedThe bottom 40
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more uniform or pure version of the
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of being collected all at once at t
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would have to differ from state tax
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owner claimed it was for business,
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The current set of saving incentive
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the current system. In addition, so
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C H A P T E R 4ImmigrationIn recent
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TABLE 4-1.— Foreign-Born Share of
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immigrants (also called illegal or
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largest group of immigrants was bor
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employment costs, including wage fl
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Chapter 4 | 103
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wages fall in response to immigrati
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immigrants from Latin America do re
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addition, as migrants leave the cou
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include siblings and adult children
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despite the tremendous growth in th
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The TWP would allow new foreign wor
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C H A P T E R 5Expanding Individual
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This phenomenon, known as the “tr
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producing more of that good. Simila
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In 2002, the President proposed “
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provide evidence of increased profi
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schools are four times as efficient
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low administrative costs, estimated
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Box 5-2: The Benefits of Land Title
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development plan designed by others
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C H A P T E R 6Innovation and theIn
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E-mail is the most common online ac
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Changed circumstances, such as new
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Illegal Acts on the InternetThe Int
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or develop new markets, which can l
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inflation factor for the price cap
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U.S. households connecting to local
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garbling their transmissions. To li
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from 51.3 percent in December 1999
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for their property rights. The Admi
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C H A P T E R 7The Global HIV/AIDS
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Chart 7-1 Estimated HIV Infection L
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There is no cure for HIV/AIDS, thou
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AIDS is more damaging to a househol
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and risk reduction have helped redu
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only one price, the drug companies
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Box 7-1 — continuedfocused on the
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Box 7-2 — continuedenhancing coor
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ConclusionThe United States and cou
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Good Two. In Ricardo’s simple mod
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The Impact of Trade on Labor Market
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The U.S. Advantage in Services Trad
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U.S. firms is associated with a cor
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anked the second-best country out o
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the Chinese government agreed to el
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Trade LiberalizationTariffs and oth
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ConclusionThe United States is the
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on theActiv
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The Council continued its efforts t
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The Staff of the Council of Economi
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John List and Ted Gayer provided co
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Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
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PageB-32. Gross saving and investme
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PageB-94. Relation of profits after
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
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TABLE B-3.—Quantity and price ind
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TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
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TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
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TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
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TABLE B-8.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-10.—Gross value added by
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TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
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TABLE B-13.—Real gross domestic p
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TABLE B-14.—Gross value added of
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TABLE B-16.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-18.—Private fixed investm
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TABLE B-20.—Government consumptio
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TABLE B-22.—Private inventories a
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TABLE B-24.—Foreign transactions
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TABLE B-26.—Relation of gross dom
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TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-30.—Disposition of person
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Year or quarterTABLE B-32.—Gross
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TABLE B-33.—Median money income (
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TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
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TABLE B-36.—Civilian employment a
Page 252 and 253: TABLE B-38.—Unemployment by demog
Page 254 and 255: TABLE B-40.—Civilian labor force
Page 256 and 257: TABLE B-42.—Civilian unemployment
Page 258 and 259: TABLE B-44.—Unemployment by durat
Page 260 and 261: TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
Page 262 and 263: TABLE B-47.—Hours and earnings in
Page 264 and 265: Year orquarterTABLE B-49.—Product
Page 266 and 267: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
Page 268 and 269: Year ormonthTABLE B-53.—Industria
Page 270 and 271: Year or monthTABLE B-55.—New cons
Page 272 and 273: TABLE B-57.—Manufacturing and tra
Page 274 and 275: TABLE B-59.—Manufacturers’ new
Page 276 and 277: Year ormonthTABLE B-61.—Consumer
Page 278 and 279: TABLE B-62.—Consumer price indexe
Page 280 and 281: TABLE B-64.—Changes in consumer p
Page 282 and 283: TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
Page 284 and 285: TABLE B-67.—Producer price indexe
Page 286 and 287: TABLE B-68.—Changes in producer p
Page 288 and 289: TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
Page 290 and 291: TABLE B-71.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 292 and 293: TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
Page 294 and 295: TABLE B-74.—Credit market borrowi
Page 296 and 297: TABLE B-75.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 298 and 299: TABLE B-77.—Consumer credit outst
Page 300 and 301: TABLE B-79.—Federal receipts, out
Page 304 and 305: TABLE B-83.—Federal and State and
Page 306 and 307: TABLE B-85.—State and local gover
Page 308 and 309: End of yearor monthTABLE B-87.—U.
Page 310 and 311: End of monthTABLE B-89.—Estimated
Page 312 and 313: TABLE B-91.—Corporate profits by
Page 314 and 315: TABLE B-93.—Sales, profits, and s
Page 316 and 317: YearComposite(Dec. 31,2002=5,000) 3
Page 318 and 319: YearAGRICULTURETABLE B-97.—Farm i
Page 320 and 321: TABLE B-99.—Farm output and produ
Page 322 and 323: Year ormonthTABLE B-101.—Agricult
Page 324 and 325: INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-103
Page 326 and 327: TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
Page 328 and 329: TABLE B-106.—U.S. international t
Page 330 and 331: TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
Page 332 and 333: TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
Page 334: TABLE B-112.—Growth rates in real
show all

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