TABLE B–44.—Unemployment by duration and reason, 1959–2004[Thousands <strong>of</strong> persons, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted 1 ]Duration <strong>of</strong> unemploymentReason for unemploymentYear or monthUnemploymentLessthan5weeks5-14weeks15-26weeks27weeksandoverAverage(mean)duration(weeks)Medianduration(weeks)TotalJob losers 3Onlay<strong>of</strong>fO<strong>the</strong>rJobleaversReentrantsNewentrants1959 ......................... 3,740 1,585 1,114 469 571 14.4 ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........1960 ......................... 3,852 1,719 1,176 503 454 12.8 ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........1961 ......................... 4,714 1,806 1,376 728 804 15.6 ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........1962 ......................... 3,911 1,663 1,134 534 585 14.7 ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........1963 ......................... 4,070 1,751 1,231 535 553 14.0 ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........1964 ......................... 3,786 1,697 1,117 491 482 13.3 ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........1965 ......................... 3,366 1,628 983 404 351 11.8 ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........1966 ......................... 2,875 1,573 779 287 239 10.4 ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........1967 2 ....................... 2,975 1,634 893 271 177 8.7 2.3 1,229 394 836 438 945 3961968 ......................... 2,817 1,594 810 256 156 8.4 4.5 1,070 334 736 431 909 4071969 ......................... 2,832 1,629 827 242 133 7.8 4.4 1,017 339 678 436 965 4131970 ......................... 4,093 2,139 1,290 428 235 8.6 4.9 1,811 675 1,137 550 1,228 5041971 ......................... 5,016 2,245 1,585 668 519 11.3 6.3 2,323 735 1,588 590 1,472 6301972 ......................... 4,882 2,242 1,472 601 566 12.0 6.2 2,108 582 1,526 641 1,456 6771973 ......................... 4,365 2,224 1,314 483 343 10.0 5.2 1,694 472 1,221 683 1,340 6491974 ......................... 5,156 2,604 1,597 574 381 9.8 5.2 2,242 746 1,495 768 1,463 6811975 ......................... 7,929 2,940 2,484 1,303 1,203 14.2 8.4 4,386 1,671 2,714 827 1,892 8231976 ......................... 7,406 2,844 2,196 1,018 1,348 15.8 8.2 3,679 1,050 2,628 903 1,928 8951977 ......................... 6,991 2,919 2,132 913 1,028 14.3 7.0 3,166 865 2,300 909 1,963 9531978 ......................... 6,202 2,865 1,923 766 648 11.9 5.9 2,585 712 1,873 874 1,857 8851979 ......................... 6,137 2,950 1,946 706 535 10.8 5.4 2,635 851 1,784 880 1,806 8171980 ......................... 7,637 3,295 2,470 1,052 820 11.9 6.5 3,947 1,488 2,459 891 1,927 8721981 ......................... 8,273 3,449 2,539 1,122 1,162 13.7 6.9 4,267 1,430 2,837 923 2,102 9811982 ......................... 10,678 3,883 3,311 1,708 1,776 15.6 8.7 6,268 2,127 4,141 840 2,384 1,1851983 ......................... 10,717 3,570 2,937 1,652 2,559 20.0 10.1 6,258 1,780 4,478 830 2,412 1,2161984 ......................... 8,539 3,350 2,451 1,104 1,634 18.2 7.9 4,421 1,171 3,250 823 2,184 1,1101985 ......................... 8,312 3,498 2,509 1,025 1,280 15.6 6.8 4,139 1,157 2,982 877 2,256 1,0391986 ......................... 8,237 3,448 2,557 1,045 1,187 15.0 6.9 4,033 1,090 2,943 1,015 2,160 1,0291987 ......................... 7,425 3,246 2,196 943 1,040 14.5 6.5 3,566 943 2,623 965 1,974 9201988 ......................... 6,701 3,084 2,007 801 809 13.5 5.9 3,092 851 2,241 983 1,809 8161989 ......................... 6,528 3,174 1,978 730 646 11.9 4.8 2,983 850 2,133 1,024 1,843 6771990 ......................... 7,047 3,265 2,257 822 703 12.0 5.3 3,387 1,028 2,359 1,041 1,930 6881991 ......................... 8,628 3,480 2,791 1,246 1,111 13.7 6.8 4,694 1,292 3,402 1,004 2,139 7921992 ......................... 9,613 3,376 2,830 1,453 1,954 17.7 8.7 5,389 1,260 4,129 1,002 2,285 9371993 ......................... 8,940 3,262 2,584 1,297 1,798 18.0 8.3 4,848 1,115 3,733 976 2,198 9191994 ......................... 7,996 2,728 2,408 1,237 1,623 18.8 9.2 3,815 977 2,838 791 2,786 6041995 ......................... 7,404 2,700 2,342 1,085 1,278 16.6 8.3 3,476 1,030 2,446 824 2,525 5791996 ......................... 7,236 2,633 2,287 1,053 1,262 16.7 8.3 3,370 1,021 2,349 774 2,512 5801997 ......................... 6,739 2,538 2,138 995 1,067 15.8 8.0 3,037 931 2,106 795 2,338 5691998 ......................... 6,210 2,622 1,950 763 875 14.5 6.7 2,822 866 1,957 734 2,132 5201999 ......................... 5,880 2,568 1,832 755 725 13.4 6.4 2,622 848 1,774 783 2,005 4692000 ......................... 5,692 2,558 1,815 669 649 12.6 5.9 2,517 852 1,664 780 1,961 4342001 ......................... 6,801 2,853 2,196 951 801 13.1 6.8 3,476 1,067 2,409 835 2,031 4592002 ......................... 8,378 2,893 2,580 1,369 1,535 16.6 9.1 4,607 1,124 3,483 866 2,368 5362003 ......................... 8,774 2,785 2,612 1,442 1,936 19.2 10.1 4,838 1,121 3,717 818 2,477 6412004 ......................... 8,149 2,696 2,382 1,293 1,779 19.6 9.8 4,197 998 3,199 858 2,408 6862003: Jan ................. 8,484 2,819 2,596 1,420 1,733 18.5 9.6 4,719 1,104 3,615 830 2,365 600Feb ................. 8,636 2,814 2,599 1,283 1,883 18.6 9.5 4,799 1,133 3,667 787 2,426 589Mar ................. 8,493 2,812 2,555 1,350 1,823 18.1 9.7 4,671 1,151 3,521 803 2,408 631Apr .................. 8,822 2,790 2,642 1,412 1,926 19.4 10.2 4,796 1,125 3,671 825 2,546 639May ................ 8,926 3,002 2,627 1,372 1,915 19.0 9.9 5,092 1,214 3,878 781 2,485 632June ................ 9,228 2,942 2,761 1,493 2,013 19.5 11.4 4,990 1,171 3,819 874 2,611 655July ................. 9,024 2,709 2,661 1,606 1,992 19.5 10.3 4,964 1,134 3,829 792 2,549 660Aug ................. 8,914 2,763 2,604 1,577 2,032 19.4 10.2 4,989 1,088 3,900 788 2,519 647Sept ................ 8,961 2,727 2,756 1,462 2,062 19.6 10.2 4,961 1,135 3,826 852 2,438 682Oct .................. 8,755 2,729 2,590 1,462 1,986 19.4 10.4 4,844 1,104 3,740 803 2,512 640Nov ................. 8,651 2,638 2,525 1,446 2,004 19.9 10.4 4,696 1,063 3,633 928 2,445 609Dec ................. 8,399 2,595 2,453 1,496 1,893 19.8 10.4 4,569 1,054 3,516 759 2,387 6962004: Jan ................. 8,303 2,623 2,402 1,447 1,892 19.8 10.6 4,380 1,030 3,350 807 2,514 677Feb ................. 8,195 2,449 2,418 1,382 1,870 20.2 10.2 4,284 1,060 3,224 835 2,421 671Mar ................. 8,330 2,623 2,417 1,330 1,991 19.9 10.2 4,475 1,035 3,440 845 2,419 629Apr .................. 8,143 2,772 2,370 1,165 1,791 19.7 9.4 4,322 993 3,329 835 2,310 650May ................ 8,172 2,731 2,376 1,277 1,783 19.8 9.9 4,190 920 3,270 855 2,437 723June ................ 8,228 2,715 2,397 1,294 1,757 19.8 10.8 4,117 1,009 3,108 909 2,426 642July ................. 8,184 2,803 2,458 1,198 1,686 18.5 8.9 4,228 1,068 3,160 896 2,333 686Aug ................. 8,018 2,605 2,521 1,243 1,681 19.2 9.5 3,978 971 3,007 885 2,440 699Sept ................ 8,005 2,796 2,251 1,227 1,744 19.6 9.5 4,014 919 3,094 830 2,417 697Oct .................. 8,066 2,753 2,290 1,261 1,771 19.7 9.5 4,074 947 3,127 829 2,411 747Nov ................. 8,020 2,611 2,361 1,294 1,718 19.8 9.8 4,066 941 3,124 880 2,388 723Dec ................. 8,047 2,865 2,264 1,325 1,636 19.3 9.5 4,108 965 3,144 898 2,361 7091Because <strong>of</strong> independent seasonal adjustment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> various series, detail will not add to totals.2Data for 1967 by reason for unemployment are not equal to total unemployment.3Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.Note.—Data relate to persons 16 years <strong>of</strong> age and over.See footnote 5 and Note, Table B-35.Source: Department <strong>of</strong> Labor, Bureau <strong>of</strong> Labor Statistics.262
TABLE B–45.—Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1978–2004All programsState programsYear or monthCoveredemployment1Insuredunemployment(weeklyaverage)23Totalbenefitspaid(millions<strong>of</strong>dollars) 24Insuredunemployment3InitialclaimsExhaustions5Insuredunemploymentaspercent<strong>of</strong>coveredemploymentBenefits paidTotal(millions<strong>of</strong>dollars) 4Averageweeklycheck(dollars) 6ThousandsWeekly average; thousands1978 .................................. 88,804 2,645 9,007 2,359 346 39 3.3 7,717 83.671979 .................................. 92,062 2,592 9,401 2,434 388 39 2.9 8,613 89.671980 .................................. 92,659 3,837 16,175 3,350 488 59 3.9 13,761 98.951981 .................................. 93,300 3,410 15,287 3,047 460 57 3.5 13,262 106.701982 .................................. 91,628 4,592 24,491 4,059 583 80 4.6 20,649 119.341983 .................................. 91,898 3,774 20,968 3,395 438 80 3.9 18,549 123.591984 .................................. 96,474 2,560 13,739 2,475 377 50 2.8 13,237 123.471985 .................................. 99,186 2,699 15,217 2,617 397 49 2.9 14,707 128.111986 .................................. 101,099 2,739 16,563 2,643 378 52 2.8 15,950 135.651987 .................................. 103,936 2,369 14,684 2,300 328 46 2.4 14,211 140.391988 .................................. 107,156 2,135 13,481 2,081 310 38 2.0 13,086 144.741989 .................................. 109,929 2,205 14,569 2,158 330 37 2.1 14,205 151.431990 .................................. 111,500 2,575 18,387 2,522 388 45 2.4 17,932 161.201991 .................................. 109,606 3,406 26,327 3,342 447 67 3.2 25,479 169.561992 .................................. 110,167 3,348 726,035 3,245 408 74 3.1 25,056 173.381993 .................................. 112,146 2,845 722,629 2,751 341 62 2.6 21,661 179.411994 .................................. 115,255 2,746 22,508 2,670 340 57 2.4 21,537 181.911995 .................................. 118,068 2,639 21,991 2,572 357 51 2.3 21,226 187.041996 .................................. 120,567 2,656 22,495 2,595 356 53 2.2 21,820 189.271997 ................................. 121,044 2,370 20,324 2,323 323 48 1.9 19,735 192.841998 ................................. 124,184 2,260 19,941 2,222 321 44 1.8 19,431 200.581999 ................................. 127,042 2,223 21,024 2,188 298 44 1.7 20,563 212.102000 .................................. 129,877 2,146 20,983 2,110 301 41 1.6 20,507 221.012001 ................................. 129,636 3,012 32,228 2,974 404 54 2.3 31,680 238.072002 ................................. 128,234 3,624 842,978 3,585 407 85 2.8 42,130 256.792003 ................................. 127,796 3,573 842,413 3,531 404 85 2.8 41,358 261.672004 p ................................ .................. 2,999 .................. 2,950 345 68 .................... ................ ................** ** **2003: Jan .......................... .................. 3,977 4,130.1 3,416 396 84 2.7 4,035.1 261.09Feb .......................... .................. 4,179 3,889.6 3,486 411 83 2.7 3,806.3 263.60Mar ......................... .................. 4,354 4,204.7 3,541 420 88 2.8 4,125.6 264.74Apr ......................... .................. 3,712 3,862.7 3,614 433 92 2.9 3,792.9 263.66May ........................ .................. 3,273 3,305.1 3,675 424 84 2.9 3,244.9 262.72June ........................ .................. 3,676 3,387.0 3,675 420 85 2.9 3,323.9 261.15July ......................... .................. 3,452 3,615.3 3,598 404 89 2.8 3,551.2 258.74Aug ......................... .................. 3,382 3,174.1 3,594 400 84 2.8 3,099.1 257.23Sept ........................ .................. 3,226 3,212.8 3,581 399 83 2.8 3,116.8 261.06Oct .......................... .................. 2,802 2,974.9 3,491 383 77 2.8 2,883.9 262.39Nov ......................... .................. 3,207 2,806.6 3,379 369 81 2.7 2,715.5 260.83Dec ......................... .................. 3,548 3,697.3 3,289 362 86 2.6 3,596.6 261.622004: Jan .......................... .................. 3,709 3,696.7 3,172 356 82 2.5 3,608.3 264.44Feb .......................... .................. 3,982 3,630.8 3,139 356 79 2.5 3,561.5 266.02Mar ......................... .................. 3,576 3,880.9 3,028 339 77 2.4 3,811.8 266.00Apr ......................... .................. 2,974 3,007.0 2,970 342 73 2.4 2,943.0 263.99May ........................ .................. 2,846 2,650.9 2,928 342 70 2.3 2,592.5 263.05June ........................ .................. 2,871 2,856.8 2,921 341 68 2.3 2,794.0 260.10July ......................... .................. 2,726 2,630.9 2,888 340 65 2.3 2,572.7 258.05Aug ......................... .................. 2,917 2,773.7 2,884 340 66 2.3 2,706.0 255.63Sept ........................ .................. 2,403 2,391.1 2,856 345 56 2.3 2,329.4 261.80Oct .......................... .................. 2,429 2,224.2 2,803 342 57 2.2 2,161.9 262.19Nov ......................... .................. 2,624 2,543.6 2,755 339 59 2.2 2,473.4 261.36Dec p ....................... .................. 2,696 2,826.5 2,750 335 55 2.2 2,753.3 264.24** Monthly data are seasonally adjusted.1Through 1996 includes persons under <strong>the</strong> State, UCFE (Federal employee, effective January 1955), RRB (Railroad Retirement Board) programs,and UCX (unemployment compensation for ex-servicemembers, effective October 1958) programs. Beginning 1997, covered employmentdata are State and UCFE programs only. Workers covered by State programs account for about 97 percent <strong>of</strong> wage and salary earners.Covered employment data beginning 2001 are based on <strong>the</strong> North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Prior data are basedon <strong>the</strong> Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).2Includes State, UCFE, RR, and UCX. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplementalbenefits), SUA (special unemployment assistance), Federal Supplemental Compensation, Emergency Unemployment Compensation, andTEUC (Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation) programs.3Covered workers who have completed at least 1 week <strong>of</strong> unemployment.4Annual data are net amounts and monthly data are gross amounts.5Individuals receiving final payments in benefit year.6For total unemployment only.7Including Emergency Unemployment Compensation, total benefits paid for 1992 and 1993 would be approximately (in millions <strong>of</strong> dollars):for 1992, 39,990 and for 1993, 34,876.8Including Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation, total benefits paid for 2002 and 2003 (not including RRB program) would beapproximately (in millions <strong>of</strong> dollars): for 2002, 53,829 and for 2003, 53,244.Note.—Insured unemployment and initial claims programs include Puerto Rican sugar cane workers.Source: Department <strong>of</strong> Labor, Employment and Training Administration.263
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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C O N T E N T SECONOMIC REPORT OF T
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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the playing field is level for our
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Monetary Policy ...................
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Encouraging FDI ...................
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3-4. The Equivalence of Sales Taxes
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Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent du
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Options for Tax ReformChapter 3, Op
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and better Nation for it. A compreh
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Innovation and the Information Econ
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ecause they do not expect family me
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The Administration has pushed aggre
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C H A P T E R 1The Year in Review a
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Consumer SpendingConsumer spending
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easons for this correlation are dis
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2003, a number of countries that to
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ProductivityRecent productivity gro
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The projected path of inflation as
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strengthen. The forecast is based o
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The growth rate of the economy over
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In sum, potential real GDP is proje
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C H A P T E R 2Expansions Past and
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The behavior of real GDP is similar
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of faltering may be attributable to
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most recent expansions have shown r
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middle of 2003. The more moderate r
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1.2 percent. Employment continued t
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SummaryModerate recessions are foll
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permanent cuts should permanently r
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and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
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Federal government revenues had bee
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Fiscal policy played an especially
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C H A P T E R 3Options for Tax Refo
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High Compliance CostsThe complexity
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a reasonable estimate is that a 10
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Excess BurdenBecause taxes distort
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Box 3-3 — continuedThe bottom 40
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more uniform or pure version of the
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of being collected all at once at t
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would have to differ from state tax
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owner claimed it was for business,
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The current set of saving incentive
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the current system. In addition, so
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C H A P T E R 4ImmigrationIn recent
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TABLE 4-1.— Foreign-Born Share of
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immigrants (also called illegal or
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largest group of immigrants was bor
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employment costs, including wage fl
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Chapter 4 | 103
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wages fall in response to immigrati
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immigrants from Latin America do re
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addition, as migrants leave the cou
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include siblings and adult children
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despite the tremendous growth in th
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The TWP would allow new foreign wor
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C H A P T E R 5Expanding Individual
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This phenomenon, known as the “tr
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producing more of that good. Simila
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In 2002, the President proposed “
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provide evidence of increased profi
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schools are four times as efficient
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low administrative costs, estimated
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Box 5-2: The Benefits of Land Title
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development plan designed by others
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C H A P T E R 6Innovation and theIn
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E-mail is the most common online ac
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Changed circumstances, such as new
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Illegal Acts on the InternetThe Int
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or develop new markets, which can l
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inflation factor for the price cap
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U.S. households connecting to local
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garbling their transmissions. To li
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from 51.3 percent in December 1999
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for their property rights. The Admi
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C H A P T E R 7The Global HIV/AIDS
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Chart 7-1 Estimated HIV Infection L
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There is no cure for HIV/AIDS, thou
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AIDS is more damaging to a househol
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and risk reduction have helped redu
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only one price, the drug companies
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Box 7-1 — continuedfocused on the
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Box 7-2 — continuedenhancing coor
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ConclusionThe United States and cou
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Good Two. In Ricardo’s simple mod
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The Impact of Trade on Labor Market
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The U.S. Advantage in Services Trad
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U.S. firms is associated with a cor
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anked the second-best country out o
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the Chinese government agreed to el
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Trade LiberalizationTariffs and oth
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ConclusionThe United States is the
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on theActiv
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The Council continued its efforts t
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The Staff of the Council of Economi
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John List and Ted Gayer provided co
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Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
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PageB-32. Gross saving and investme
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PageB-94. Relation of profits after
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
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End of yearor monthTABLE B-87.—U.
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End of monthTABLE B-89.—Estimated
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TABLE B-91.—Corporate profits by
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TABLE B-93.—Sales, profits, and s
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YearComposite(Dec. 31,2002=5,000) 3
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YearAGRICULTURETABLE B-97.—Farm i
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TABLE B-99.—Farm output and produ
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Year ormonthTABLE B-101.—Agricult
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-103
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TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-106.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
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TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
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TABLE B-112.—Growth rates in real