Economic Report of the President

More documents

Recommendations

Info

This engine of growth can falter, however, if government policies distort themarket signals that guide innovative activity. Well-meaning policies topromote the diffusion of a service or foster entry into new markets can haveunintended consequences. A policy to subsidize an existing service so thatmore people will consume it can deter development of innovative new servicesthat people might otherwise prefer. In addition, potential pioneeringinvestors forced to share the fruits of their investment with new entrantswould find it less profitable to invest in the first place, and a new market maynever be developed. As circumstances change and industries evolve, existinggovernment regulations may need rethinking. In particular, economic regulationsaimed at correcting an absence of competition may lose their rationalewhen competition from new technologies emerges.The Global HIV/AIDS EpidemicChapter 7, The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic, examines the economic issuesposed by the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. Thedisease has already killed over 25 million people, and currently over40 million people are living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV),the virus that causes AIDS. The chapter discusses the nature of the crisis, itsconsequences, and what governments can do to create affordable access toexisting treatments while encouraging research toward the development ofnew medical therapies to combat this disease.The impact of HIV/AIDS varies across the world, both in terms of the scaleof the epidemic and the ability to treat infected individuals. Less-developedcountries are particularly hard hit on both accounts. Almost two thirds of allpeople with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, a region that makes up only onetenth of the world’s population. At the same time, few infected individuals inthe region receive adequate treatment for the disease.While the disease’s impacts on human health and mortality are widelyrecognized, the HIV/AIDS epidemic also has devastating economic consequencesthat exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. AIDS deepens poverty,intensifies food shortages, and, in some cases, erases decades of economicprogress. HIV/AIDS-related illnesses directly decrease the income of anaffected household. Even if an infected family member is able to work, a sickworker is likely to be less productive than a healthy one. The disease predominantlyaffects the working-age population, and thus can leave too few peopleto support the aging and young populations. AIDS can also impose debilitatingcosts on other members of a household, for example as other familymembers may need to miss work or school to care for a patient. The diseasecan further change the way that affected families make long-term decisions,Overview | 25
ecause they do not expect family members to live as long and because theirneeds become more immediate due to pressing health concerns. As a result,children may be pulled out of school in order to supplement the decliningfamily income, resulting in a loss in the children’s future earning potential.Impacts such as this can combine to create a vicious cycle of increased povertyin the short run and an inability of households to improve their condition inthe long run.The President has made fighting the worldwide HIV/AIDS epidemic apriority of U.S. foreign policy. He has taken bold action against the crisisthrough his Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. Understanding the unique challengespresented by this epidemic is essential to designing policies to preventthe spread of the disease and to treat those who are already infected. Acomprehensive and integrated approach of prevention, treatment, and care isessential to quelling the epidemic. In poor countries, treatment affordabilityand the lack of health care infrastructure are major concerns. Compassionatepricing policies and aid from developed nations can play an important role inexpanding access to treatment.To continue the development of better treatments and to work towarderadication of HIV/AIDS, drug companies need to maintain the highestpossible quality of research. Intellectual property laws are important toensuring appropriate incentives for innovation to create the next generationof therapies and to develop a safe and effective vaccine.Modern International TradeChapter 8, Modern International Trade, examines the benefits of free tradeand discusses the progress the Administration has made in opening globalmarkets. Open markets and free trade raise living standards both at home andabroad. Any move toward economic isolationism would threaten the competitivegains made by U.S. exporters while harming U.S. consumers and firmsthat benefit from imports.The President’s policy of opening markets around the world is based on along history of intellectual support for free trade, starting with the nineteenthcentury theory of comparative advantage advanced by David Ricardo.Ricardo illustrated the ways in which free trade allows countries to mutuallybenefit from specializing in producing products at which they are adept andthen exchanging those products. This rationale remains the same, even withadvances in technology and new types of trade. The principle of comparativeadvantage applies to the burgeoning trade in services, in which the performanceof U.S. service workers and firms has been particularly strong. TheUnited States exports more services than it imports, and this surplus has been26 | Economic Report of the President
Page 1 and 2: Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
Page 3 and 4: C O N T E N T SECONOMIC REPORT OF T
Page 5 and 6: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 7 and 8: the playing field is level for our
Page 9 and 10: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 11 and 12: Monetary Policy ...................
Page 13 and 14: Encouraging FDI ...................
Page 15 and 16: 3-4. The Equivalence of Sales Taxes
Page 17 and 18: Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent du
Page 19 and 20: Options for Tax ReformChapter 3, Op
Page 21 and 22: and better Nation for it. A compreh
Page 23: Innovation and the Information Econ
Page 27 and 28: The Administration has pushed aggre
Page 29 and 30: C H A P T E R 1The Year in Review a
Page 31 and 32: Consumer SpendingConsumer spending
Page 33 and 34: easons for this correlation are dis
Page 35 and 36: 2003, a number of countries that to
Page 37 and 38: ProductivityRecent productivity gro
Page 39 and 40: The projected path of inflation as
Page 41 and 42: strengthen. The forecast is based o
Page 43 and 44: The growth rate of the economy over
Page 45 and 46: In sum, potential real GDP is proje
Page 47 and 48: C H A P T E R 2Expansions Past and
Page 49 and 50: The behavior of real GDP is similar
Page 51 and 52: of faltering may be attributable to
Page 53 and 54: most recent expansions have shown r
Page 55 and 56: middle of 2003. The more moderate r
Page 57 and 58: 1.2 percent. Employment continued t
Page 59 and 60: SummaryModerate recessions are foll
Page 61 and 62: permanent cuts should permanently r
Page 63 and 64: and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
Page 65 and 66: Federal government revenues had bee
Page 67 and 68: Fiscal policy played an especially
Page 69 and 70: C H A P T E R 3Options for Tax Refo
Page 71 and 72: High Compliance CostsThe complexity
Page 73 and 74: a reasonable estimate is that a 10
Page 75 and 76:
Excess BurdenBecause taxes distort
Page 77 and 78:
Box 3-3 — continuedThe bottom 40
Page 79 and 80:
more uniform or pure version of the
Page 81 and 82:
of being collected all at once at t
Page 83 and 84:
would have to differ from state tax
Page 85 and 86:
owner claimed it was for business,
Page 87 and 88:
The current set of saving incentive
Page 89 and 90:
the current system. In addition, so
Page 91 and 92:
C H A P T E R 4ImmigrationIn recent
Page 93 and 94:
TABLE 4-1.— Foreign-Born Share of
Page 95 and 96:
immigrants (also called illegal or
Page 97 and 98:
largest group of immigrants was bor
Page 99 and 100:
employment costs, including wage fl
Page 101 and 102:
Chapter 4 | 103
Page 103 and 104:
wages fall in response to immigrati
Page 105 and 106:
immigrants from Latin America do re
Page 107 and 108:
addition, as migrants leave the cou
Page 109 and 110:
include siblings and adult children
Page 111 and 112:
despite the tremendous growth in th
Page 113 and 114:
The TWP would allow new foreign wor
Page 115 and 116:
C H A P T E R 5Expanding Individual
Page 117 and 118:
This phenomenon, known as the “tr
Page 119 and 120:
producing more of that good. Simila
Page 121 and 122:
In 2002, the President proposed “
Page 123 and 124:
provide evidence of increased profi
Page 125 and 126:
schools are four times as efficient
Page 127 and 128:
low administrative costs, estimated
Page 129 and 130:
Box 5-2: The Benefits of Land Title
Page 131 and 132:
development plan designed by others
Page 133 and 134:
C H A P T E R 6Innovation and theIn
Page 135 and 136:
E-mail is the most common online ac
Page 137 and 138:
Changed circumstances, such as new
Page 139 and 140:
Illegal Acts on the InternetThe Int
Page 141 and 142:
or develop new markets, which can l
Page 143 and 144:
inflation factor for the price cap
Page 145 and 146:
U.S. households connecting to local
Page 147 and 148:
garbling their transmissions. To li
Page 149 and 150:
from 51.3 percent in December 1999
Page 151 and 152:
for their property rights. The Admi
Page 153 and 154:
C H A P T E R 7The Global HIV/AIDS
Page 155 and 156:
Chart 7-1 Estimated HIV Infection L
Page 157 and 158:
There is no cure for HIV/AIDS, thou
Page 159 and 160:
AIDS is more damaging to a househol
Page 161 and 162:
and risk reduction have helped redu
Page 163 and 164:
only one price, the drug companies
Page 165 and 166:
Box 7-1 — continuedfocused on the
Page 167 and 168:
Box 7-2 — continuedenhancing coor
Page 169 and 170:
ConclusionThe United States and cou
Page 171 and 172:
Good Two. In Ricardo’s simple mod
Page 173 and 174:
The Impact of Trade on Labor Market
Page 175 and 176:
The U.S. Advantage in Services Trad
Page 177 and 178:
U.S. firms is associated with a cor
Page 179 and 180:
anked the second-best country out o
Page 181 and 182:
the Chinese government agreed to el
Page 183 and 184:
Trade LiberalizationTariffs and oth
Page 185 and 186:
ConclusionThe United States is the
Page 187 and 188:
LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 189 and 190:
Report to the President on theActiv
Page 191 and 192:
The Council continued its efforts t
Page 193 and 194:
The Staff of the Council of Economi
Page 195 and 196:
John List and Ted Gayer provided co
Page 197:
Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
Page 200 and 201:
PageB-32. Gross saving and investme
Page 202 and 203:
PageB-94. Relation of profits after
Page 204 and 205:
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 206 and 207:
TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
Page 208 and 209:
TABLE B-3.—Quantity and price ind
Page 210 and 211:
TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
Page 212 and 213:
TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
Page 214 and 215:
TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
Page 216 and 217:
TABLE B-8.—Gross domestic product
Page 218 and 219:
TABLE B-10.—Gross value added by
Page 220 and 221:
TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
Page 222 and 223:
TABLE B-13.—Real gross domestic p
Page 224 and 225:
TABLE B-14.—Gross value added of
Page 226 and 227:
TABLE B-16.—Personal consumption
Page 228 and 229:
TABLE B-18.—Private fixed investm
Page 230 and 231:
TABLE B-20.—Government consumptio
Page 232 and 233:
TABLE B-22.—Private inventories a
Page 234 and 235:
TABLE B-24.—Foreign transactions
Page 236 and 237:
TABLE B-26.—Relation of gross dom
Page 238 and 239:
TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
Page 240 and 241:
TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
Page 242 and 243:
TABLE B-30.—Disposition of person
Page 244 and 245:
Year or quarterTABLE B-32.—Gross
Page 246 and 247:
TABLE B-33.—Median money income (
Page 248 and 249:
TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
Page 250 and 251:
TABLE B-36.—Civilian employment a
Page 252 and 253:
TABLE B-38.—Unemployment by demog
Page 254 and 255:
TABLE B-40.—Civilian labor force
Page 256 and 257:
TABLE B-42.—Civilian unemployment
Page 258 and 259:
TABLE B-44.—Unemployment by durat
Page 260 and 261:
TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
Page 262 and 263:
TABLE B-47.—Hours and earnings in
Page 264 and 265:
Year orquarterTABLE B-49.—Product
Page 266 and 267:
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
Page 268 and 269:
Year ormonthTABLE B-53.—Industria
Page 270 and 271:
Year or monthTABLE B-55.—New cons
Page 272 and 273:
TABLE B-57.—Manufacturing and tra
Page 274 and 275:
TABLE B-59.—Manufacturers’ new
Page 276 and 277:
Year ormonthTABLE B-61.—Consumer
Page 278 and 279:
TABLE B-62.—Consumer price indexe
Page 280 and 281:
TABLE B-64.—Changes in consumer p
Page 282 and 283:
TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
Page 284 and 285:
TABLE B-67.—Producer price indexe
Page 286 and 287:
TABLE B-68.—Changes in producer p
Page 288 and 289:
TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
Page 290 and 291:
TABLE B-71.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 292 and 293:
TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
Page 294 and 295:
TABLE B-74.—Credit market borrowi
Page 296 and 297:
TABLE B-75.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 298 and 299:
TABLE B-77.—Consumer credit outst
Page 300 and 301:
TABLE B-79.—Federal receipts, out
Page 302 and 303:
TABLE B-81.—Federal receipts, out
Page 304 and 305:
TABLE B-83.—Federal and State and
Page 306 and 307:
TABLE B-85.—State and local gover
Page 308 and 309:
End of yearor monthTABLE B-87.—U.
Page 310 and 311:
End of monthTABLE B-89.—Estimated
Page 312 and 313:
TABLE B-91.—Corporate profits by
Page 314 and 315:
TABLE B-93.—Sales, profits, and s
Page 316 and 317:
YearComposite(Dec. 31,2002=5,000) 3
Page 318 and 319:
YearAGRICULTURETABLE B-97.—Farm i
Page 320 and 321:
TABLE B-99.—Farm output and produ
Page 322 and 323:
Year ormonthTABLE B-101.—Agricult
Page 324 and 325:
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-103
Page 326 and 327:
TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
Page 328 and 329:
TABLE B-106.—U.S. international t
Page 330 and 331:
TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
Page 332 and 333:
TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
Page 334:
TABLE B-112.—Growth rates in real
show all

Economic Report of the President

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?