Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B–3.—Quantity and price indexes for gross domestic product, and percent changes, 1959–2004[Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]Gross domestic product (GDP)Year or quarterReal GDP(chain-typequantityindex)Index numbers, 2000=100 Percent change from preceding period 1GDPchain-typepriceindexGDPimplicitpricedeflatorGDP(currentdollars)Real GDP(chain-typequantityindex)GDPchain-typepriceindexGDPimplicitpricedeflator1959 ............................................................ 24.868 20.754 20.751 8.4 7.1 1.2 1.21960 ............................................................ 25.484 21.044 21.041 3.9 2.5 1.4 1.41961 ............................................................ 26.077 21.281 21.278 3.5 2.3 1.1 1.11962 ............................................................ 27.658 21.572 21.569 7.5 6.1 1.4 1.41963 ............................................................ 28.868 21.801 21.798 5.5 4.4 1.1 1.11964 ............................................................ 30.545 22.134 22.131 7.4 5.8 1.5 1.51965 ............................................................ 32.506 22.538 22.535 8.4 6.4 1.8 1.81966 ............................................................ 34.625 23.180 23.176 9.5 6.5 2.8 2.81967 ............................................................ 35.496 23.897 23.893 5.7 2.5 3.1 3.11968 ............................................................ 37.208 24.916 24.913 9.3 4.8 4.3 4.31969 ............................................................ 38.356 26.153 26.149 8.2 3.1 5.0 5.01970 ............................................................ 38.422 27.538 27.534 5.5 .2 5.3 5.31971 ............................................................ 39.713 28.916 28.911 8.5 3.4 5.0 5.01972 ............................................................ 41.815 30.171 30.166 9.9 5.3 4.3 4.31973 ............................................................ 44.224 31.854 31.849 11.7 5.8 5.6 5.61974 ............................................................ 44.001 34.721 34.725 8.5 −.5 9.0 9.01975 ............................................................ 43.916 38.007 38.002 9.2 −.2 9.5 9.41976 ............................................................ 46.256 40.202 40.196 11.4 5.3 5.8 5.81977 ............................................................ 48.391 42.758 42.752 11.3 4.6 6.4 6.41978 ............................................................ 51.085 45.762 45.757 13.0 5.6 7.0 7.01979 ............................................................ 52.699 49.553 49.548 11.7 3.2 8.3 8.31980 ............................................................ 52.579 54.062 54.043 8.8 −.2 9.1 9.11981 ............................................................ 53.904 59.128 59.119 12.2 2.5 9.4 9.41982 ............................................................ 52.860 62.738 62.726 4.0 −1.9 6.1 6.11983 ............................................................ 55.249 65.214 65.207 8.7 4.5 3.9 4.01984 ............................................................ 59.220 67.664 67.655 11.2 7.2 3.8 3.81985 ............................................................ 61.666 69.724 69.713 7.3 4.1 3.0 3.01986 ............................................................ 63.804 71.269 71.250 5.7 3.5 2.2 2.21987 ............................................................ 65.958 73.204 73.196 6.2 3.4 2.7 2.71988 ............................................................ 68.684 75.706 75.694 7.7 4.1 3.4 3.41989 ............................................................ 71.116 78.569 78.556 7.5 3.5 3.8 3.81990 ............................................................ 72.451 81.614 81.590 5.8 1.9 3.9 3.91991 ............................................................ 72.329 84.457 84.444 3.3 −.2 3.5 3.51992 ............................................................ 74.734 86.402 86.385 5.7 3.3 2.3 2.31993 ............................................................ 76.731 88.390 88.381 5.0 2.7 2.3 2.31994 ............................................................ 79.816 90.265 90.259 6.2 4.0 2.1 2.11995 ............................................................ 81.814 92.115 92.106 4.6 2.5 2.0 2.01996 ............................................................ 84.842 93.859 93.852 5.7 3.7 1.9 1.91997 ............................................................ 88.658 95.415 95.414 6.2 4.5 1.7 1.71998 ............................................................ 92.359 96.475 96.472 5.3 4.2 1.1 1.11999 ............................................................ 96.469 97.868 97.868 6.0 4.5 1.4 1.42000 ............................................................ 100.000 100.000 100.000 5.9 3.7 2.2 2.22001 ............................................................ 100.751 102.402 102.399 3.2 .8 2.4 2.42002 ............................................................ 102.626 104.097 104.092 3.5 1.9 1.7 1.72003 ............................................................ 105.749 106.003 105.998 4.9 3.0 1.8 1.82004 p .......................................................... 110.393 108.281 108.220 6.6 4.4 2.1 2.12000: I .......................................................... 98.764 99.292 99.317 4.7 1.0 3.4 3.6II ........................................................ 100.315 99.780 99.745 8.3 6.4 2.0 1.7III ....................................................... 100.200 100.241 100.259 1.6 −.5 1.9 2.1IV ....................................................... 100.721 100.687 100.666 3.8 2.1 1.8 1.62001: I .......................................................... 100.597 101.507 101.478 2.8 −.5 3.3 3.3II ........................................................ 100.906 102.290 102.252 4.4 1.2 3.1 3.1III ....................................................... 100.551 102.690 102.675 .2 −1.4 1.6 1.7IV ....................................................... 100.948 103.122 103.191 3.6 1.6 1.7 2.02002: I .......................................................... 101.798 103.470 103.450 4.5 3.4 1.4 1.0II ........................................................ 102.400 103.853 103.911 4.2 2.4 1.5 1.8III ....................................................... 103.059 104.280 104.243 3.9 2.6 1.7 1.3IV ....................................................... 103.249 104.786 104.752 2.7 .7 2.0 2.02003: I .......................................................... 103.743 105.490 105.500 4.9 1.9 2.7 2.9II ........................................................ 104.792 105.780 105.799 5.3 4.1 1.1 1.1III ....................................................... 106.681 106.158 106.148 8.8 7.4 1.4 1.3IV ....................................................... 107.780 106.586 106.523 5.7 4.2 1.6 1.42004: I .......................................................... 108.969 107.314 107.246 7.4 4.5 2.8 2.7II ........................................................ 109.858 108.169 108.093 6.6 3.3 3.2 3.2III ....................................................... 110.941 108.551 108.482 5.5 4.0 1.4 1.4IV p ..................................................... 111.803 109.091 109.033 5.3 3.1 2.0 2.01Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.212
TABLE B–4.—Percent changes in real gross domestic product, 1959–2004[Percent change from preceding period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]Year orquarterGrossdomesticproductTotalPersonal consumptionexpendituresDurablegoodsNondurablegoodsGross private domesticinvestmentNonresidential fixedTotalStructuresEquipmentandsoftwareResidentialfixedExports and importsof goodsand servicesGovernment consumptionexpenditures andgross investmentTotalServicesExportsImportsFederalStateandlocal1959 ............ 7.1 5.6 12.1 4.1 5.3 8.0 2.4 11.9 25.4 10.3 10.5 3.4 3.1 3.81960 ............ 2.5 2.8 2.0 1.5 4.5 5.7 7.9 4.2 −7.1 17.4 1.3 .2 −2.7 4.41961 ............ 2.3 2.1 −3.8 1.8 4.2 −.6 1.4 −1.9 .3 .5 −.7 5.0 4.2 6.21962 ............ 6.1 5.0 11.7 3.1 5.0 8.7 4.5 11.6 9.6 5.1 11.3 6.2 8.5 3.11963 ............ 4.4 4.1 9.7 2.1 4.6 5.6 1.1 8.4 11.8 7.1 2.7 2.6 .1 6.01964 ............ 5.8 6.0 9.3 4.9 6.1 11.9 10.4 12.8 5.8 11.8 5.3 2.2 −1.3 6.81965 ............ 6.4 6.3 12.7 5.3 5.3 17.4 15.9 18.3 −2.9 2.8 10.6 3.0 .0 6.71966 ............ 6.5 5.7 8.4 5.5 5.0 12.5 6.8 16.0 −8.9 6.9 14.9 8.8 11.0 6.31967 ............ 2.5 3.0 1.6 1.6 4.9 −1.4 −2.5 −.7 −3.1 2.3 7.3 7.7 9.9 5.01968 ............ 4.8 5.7 11.0 4.6 5.2 4.5 1.5 6.2 13.6 7.9 14.9 3.1 .8 5.91969 ............ 3.1 3.7 3.5 2.7 4.8 7.6 5.4 8.8 3.0 4.8 5.7 −.2 −3.4 3.41970 ............ .2 2.3 −3.2 2.4 4.0 −.5 .3 −1.0 −6.0 10.7 4.3 −2.4 −7.4 2.81971 ............ 3.4 3.8 10.0 1.8 3.9 .0 −1.6 1.0 27.4 1.7 5.3 −2.2 −7.7 3.11972 ............ 5.3 6.1 12.7 4.4 5.7 9.2 3.1 12.9 17.8 7.5 11.3 −.7 −4.1 2.21973 ............ 5.8 4.9 10.3 3.3 4.7 14.6 8.2 18.3 −.6 18.9 4.6 −.4 −4.2 2.81974 ............ −.5 −.8 −6.9 −2.0 2.3 .8 −2.1 2.6 −20.6 7.9 −2.3 2.5 .9 3.81975 ............ −.2 2.3 .0 1.5 3.7 −9.9 −10.5 −9.5 −13.0 −.6 −11.1 2.3 .3 3.71976 ............ 5.3 5.5 12.8 4.9 4.1 4.9 2.4 6.2 23.6 4.4 19.5 .4 .0 .71977 ............ 4.6 4.2 9.3 2.4 4.3 11.3 4.1 15.1 21.5 2.4 10.9 1.1 2.1 .41978 ............ 5.6 4.4 5.3 3.7 4.7 15.0 14.4 15.2 6.3 10.5 8.7 2.9 2.5 3.31979 ............ 3.2 2.4 −.3 2.7 3.1 10.1 12.7 8.7 −3.7 9.9 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.51980 ............ −.2 −.3 −7.8 −.2 1.8 −.3 5.8 −3.6 −21.2 10.8 −6.6 2.0 4.7 −.11981 ............ 2.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.7 5.7 8.0 4.3 −8.0 1.2 2.6 .9 4.8 −2.01982 ............ −1.9 1.4 −.1 1.0 2.1 −3.8 −1.7 −5.2 −18.2 −7.6 −1.3 1.8 3.9 .11983 ............ 4.5 5.7 14.6 3.3 5.5 −1.3 −10.8 5.4 41.4 −2.6 12.6 3.7 6.6 1.21984 ............ 7.2 5.3 14.6 4.0 4.1 17.7 14.0 19.8 14.8 8.2 24.3 3.3 3.1 3.61985 ............ 4.1 5.2 10.1 2.7 5.6 6.6 7.1 6.4 1.6 3.0 6.5 7.0 7.8 6.21986 ............ 3.5 4.1 9.7 3.6 2.9 −2.9 −11.0 1.9 12.3 7.7 8.6 6.1 5.7 6.41987 ............ 3.4 3.3 1.7 2.4 4.3 −.1 −2.9 1.4 2.0 10.8 5.9 2.5 3.6 1.51988 ............ 4.1 4.1 6.0 3.3 4.0 5.2 .6 7.5 −1.0 16.0 3.9 1.3 −1.6 3.71989 ............ 3.5 2.8 2.2 2.8 3.0 5.6 2.0 7.3 −3.0 11.5 4.4 2.6 1.5 3.41990 ............ 1.9 2.0 −.3 1.6 2.9 .5 1.5 .0 −8.6 9.0 3.6 3.2 2.0 4.11991 ............ −.2 .2 −5.6 −.2 1.7 −5.4 −11.1 −2.6 −9.6 6.6 −.6 1.1 −.2 2.11992 ............ 3.3 3.3 5.9 2.0 3.5 3.2 −6.0 7.3 13.8 6.9 7.0 .5 −1.7 2.21993 ............ 2.7 3.3 7.8 2.7 2.8 8.7 −.7 12.5 8.2 3.2 8.8 −.9 −4.2 1.41994 ............ 4.0 3.7 8.4 3.5 2.9 9.2 1.8 11.9 9.6 8.7 11.9 .0 −3.7 2.61995 ............ 2.5 2.7 4.4 2.2 2.6 10.5 6.4 12.0 −3.2 10.1 8.0 .5 −2.7 2.61996 ............ 3.7 3.4 7.8 2.6 2.9 9.3 5.6 10.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 1.0 −1.2 2.31997 ............ 4.5 3.8 8.6 2.7 3.3 12.1 7.3 13.8 1.9 11.9 13.6 1.9 −1.0 3.61998 ............ 4.2 5.0 11.3 4.0 4.2 11.1 5.1 13.3 7.6 2.4 11.6 1.9 −1.1 3.61999 ............ 4.5 5.1 11.7 4.6 4.0 9.2 −.4 12.7 6.0 4.3 11.5 3.9 2.2 4.72000 ............ 3.7 4.7 7.3 3.8 4.5 8.7 6.8 9.4 .8 8.7 13.1 2.1 .9 2.72001 ............ .8 2.5 4.3 2.0 2.4 −4.2 −2.3 −4.9 .4 −5.4 −2.7 3.4 3.9 3.22002 ............ 1.9 3.1 6.5 2.6 2.6 −8.9 −17.8 −5.5 4.8 −2.3 3.4 4.4 7.5 2.82003 ............ 3.0 3.3 7.4 3.7 2.2 3.3 −5.6 6.4 8.8 1.9 4.4 2.8 6.6 .72004 p .......... 4.4 3.8 6.9 4.5 2.8 10.3 1.0 13.4 9.5 8.1 9.8 2.0 4.7 .42000: I ......... 1.0 6.5 24.4 .3 6.0 14.3 7.0 16.9 4.1 6.6 16.7 −3.0 −13.9 3.2II ........ 6.4 2.5 −9.5 5.7 3.9 14.8 18.0 13.7 −3.5 12.3 16.5 5.5 17.2 .1III ...... −.5 3.9 6.0 2.3 4.3 2.2 9.6 −.2 −8.0 10.7 14.1 −2.1 −8.2 1.3IV ....... 2.1 3.4 .7 3.7 3.9 .9 1.2 .8 .4 −2.7 −1.6 1.3 −1.0 2.52001: I ......... −.5 1.7 6.7 .5 1.1 −4.2 −8.3 −2.8 2.2 −5.3 −3.7 5.3 8.1 4.0II ........ 1.2 1.0 −.3 −.1 1.8 −13.6 −4.0 −16.9 5.6 −12.7 −12.6 7.9 9.1 7.2III ....... −1.4 1.8 3.1 2.4 1.2 −6.8 6.0 −11.4 1.8 −18.2 −10.3 −1.5 .0 −2.3IV ....... 1.6 7.0 37.4 4.9 2.3 −13.3 −33.2 −4.2 −3.7 −10.8 −3.4 8.5 8.8 8.42002: I ......... 3.4 1.8 −8.5 3.8 3.3 −9.7 −18.5 −6.3 9.3 4.7 12.5 4.7 8.2 2.9II ........ 2.4 2.8 4.4 .8 3.5 −9.6 −22.6 −4.5 11.3 11.0 11.4 4.4 12.8 .3III ....... 2.6 2.9 14.0 −.6 2.4 −1.1 −16.0 4.6 2.8 3.1 5.4 2.1 2.9 1.7IV ....... .7 2.5 −2.4 5.3 2.2 −3.2 −6.6 −2.0 4.2 −4.2 9.6 4.0 9.1 1.42003: I ......... 1.9 2.7 −.1 5.0 2.1 −.1 −13.0 4.5 7.5 −1.5 −2.0 .2 .3 .1II ........ 4.1 3.9 20.6 1.6 1.8 11.8 14.5 11.0 9.1 −1.6 2.5 7.2 22.1 −.4III ....... 7.4 5.0 16.5 6.9 1.9 15.7 −1.3 21.7 22.4 11.3 2.8 .1 −3.3 2.2IV ....... 4.2 3.6 3.9 5.1 2.8 11.0 7.9 12.0 9.6 17.5 17.1 1.6 4.8 −.12004: I ......... 4.5 4.1 2.2 6.7 3.3 4.2 −7.6 8.0 5.0 7.3 10.6 2.5 7.1 .0II ........ 3.3 1.6 −.3 .1 2.7 12.5 6.9 14.2 16.5 7.3 12.6 2.2 2.7 1.9III ....... 4.0 5.1 17.2 4.7 3.0 13.0 −1.1 17.5 1.6 6.0 4.6 .7 4.8 −1.7IV p ..... 3.1 4.6 6.7 5.8 3.7 10.3 −4.1 14.9 .3 −3.9 9.1 .9 1.6 .6Note.—Percent changes based on unrounded data.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.213
Page 1 and 2:
Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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C O N T E N T SECONOMIC REPORT OF T
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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the playing field is level for our
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Monetary Policy ...................
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Encouraging FDI ...................
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3-4. The Equivalence of Sales Taxes
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Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent du
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Options for Tax ReformChapter 3, Op
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and better Nation for it. A compreh
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Innovation and the Information Econ
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ecause they do not expect family me
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The Administration has pushed aggre
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C H A P T E R 1The Year in Review a
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Consumer SpendingConsumer spending
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easons for this correlation are dis
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2003, a number of countries that to
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ProductivityRecent productivity gro
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The projected path of inflation as
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strengthen. The forecast is based o
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The growth rate of the economy over
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In sum, potential real GDP is proje
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C H A P T E R 2Expansions Past and
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The behavior of real GDP is similar
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of faltering may be attributable to
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most recent expansions have shown r
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middle of 2003. The more moderate r
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1.2 percent. Employment continued t
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SummaryModerate recessions are foll
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permanent cuts should permanently r
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and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
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Federal government revenues had bee
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Fiscal policy played an especially
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C H A P T E R 3Options for Tax Refo
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High Compliance CostsThe complexity
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a reasonable estimate is that a 10
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Excess BurdenBecause taxes distort
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Box 3-3 — continuedThe bottom 40
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more uniform or pure version of the
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of being collected all at once at t
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would have to differ from state tax
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owner claimed it was for business,
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The current set of saving incentive
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the current system. In addition, so
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C H A P T E R 4ImmigrationIn recent
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TABLE 4-1.— Foreign-Born Share of
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immigrants (also called illegal or
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largest group of immigrants was bor
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employment costs, including wage fl
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Chapter 4 | 103
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wages fall in response to immigrati
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immigrants from Latin America do re
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addition, as migrants leave the cou
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include siblings and adult children
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despite the tremendous growth in th
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The TWP would allow new foreign wor
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C H A P T E R 5Expanding Individual
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This phenomenon, known as the “tr
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producing more of that good. Simila
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In 2002, the President proposed “
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provide evidence of increased profi
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schools are four times as efficient
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low administrative costs, estimated
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Box 5-2: The Benefits of Land Title
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development plan designed by others
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C H A P T E R 6Innovation and theIn
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E-mail is the most common online ac
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Changed circumstances, such as new
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Illegal Acts on the InternetThe Int
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or develop new markets, which can l
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inflation factor for the price cap
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U.S. households connecting to local
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garbling their transmissions. To li
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from 51.3 percent in December 1999
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for their property rights. The Admi
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C H A P T E R 7The Global HIV/AIDS
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Chart 7-1 Estimated HIV Infection L
Page 157 and 158: There is no cure for HIV/AIDS, thou
Page 159 and 160: AIDS is more damaging to a househol
Page 161 and 162: and risk reduction have helped redu
Page 163 and 164: only one price, the drug companies
Page 165 and 166: Box 7-1 — continuedfocused on the
Page 167 and 168: Box 7-2 — continuedenhancing coor
Page 169 and 170: ConclusionThe United States and cou
Page 171 and 172: Good Two. In Ricardo’s simple mod
Page 173 and 174: The Impact of Trade on Labor Market
Page 175 and 176: The U.S. Advantage in Services Trad
Page 177 and 178: U.S. firms is associated with a cor
Page 179 and 180: anked the second-best country out o
Page 181 and 182: the Chinese government agreed to el
Page 183 and 184: Trade LiberalizationTariffs and oth
Page 185 and 186: ConclusionThe United States is the
Page 187 and 188: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 189 and 190: Report to the President on theActiv
Page 191 and 192: The Council continued its efforts t
Page 193 and 194: The Staff of the Council of Economi
Page 195 and 196: John List and Ted Gayer provided co
Page 197: Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
Page 200 and 201: PageB-32. Gross saving and investme
Page 202 and 203: PageB-94. Relation of profits after
Page 204 and 205: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 206 and 207: TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
Page 210 and 211: TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
Page 212 and 213: TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
Page 214 and 215: TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
Page 216 and 217: TABLE B-8.—Gross domestic product
Page 218 and 219: TABLE B-10.—Gross value added by
Page 220 and 221: TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
Page 222 and 223: TABLE B-13.—Real gross domestic p
Page 224 and 225: TABLE B-14.—Gross value added of
Page 226 and 227: TABLE B-16.—Personal consumption
Page 228 and 229: TABLE B-18.—Private fixed investm
Page 230 and 231: TABLE B-20.—Government consumptio
Page 232 and 233: TABLE B-22.—Private inventories a
Page 234 and 235: TABLE B-24.—Foreign transactions
Page 236 and 237: TABLE B-26.—Relation of gross dom
Page 238 and 239: TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
Page 240 and 241: TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
Page 242 and 243: TABLE B-30.—Disposition of person
Page 244 and 245: Year or quarterTABLE B-32.—Gross
Page 246 and 247: TABLE B-33.—Median money income (
Page 248 and 249: TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
Page 250 and 251: TABLE B-36.—Civilian employment a
Page 252 and 253: TABLE B-38.—Unemployment by demog
Page 254 and 255: TABLE B-40.—Civilian labor force
Page 256 and 257: TABLE B-42.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-44.—Unemployment by durat
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TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
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TABLE B-47.—Hours and earnings in
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Year orquarterTABLE B-49.—Product
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
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Year ormonthTABLE B-53.—Industria
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Year or monthTABLE B-55.—New cons
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TABLE B-57.—Manufacturing and tra
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TABLE B-59.—Manufacturers’ new
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Year ormonthTABLE B-61.—Consumer
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TABLE B-62.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-64.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-67.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-68.—Changes in producer p
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TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
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TABLE B-71.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
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TABLE B-74.—Credit market borrowi
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TABLE B-75.—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-77.—Consumer credit outst
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TABLE B-79.—Federal receipts, out
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TABLE B-81.—Federal receipts, out
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TABLE B-83.—Federal and State and
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TABLE B-85.—State and local gover
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End of yearor monthTABLE B-87.—U.
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End of monthTABLE B-89.—Estimated
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TABLE B-91.—Corporate profits by
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TABLE B-93.—Sales, profits, and s
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YearComposite(Dec. 31,2002=5,000) 3
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YearAGRICULTURETABLE B-97.—Farm i
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TABLE B-99.—Farm output and produ
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Year ormonthTABLE B-101.—Agricult
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-103
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TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-106.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
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TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
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TABLE B-112.—Growth rates in real
show all

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