Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B–108.—Industrial production and consumer prices, major industrial countries, 1979–2004Year or quarterUnitedStates 1CanadaJapanEuropeanUnion 2France Germany 3 ItalyUnitedKingdomIndustrial production (Index, 1997=100) 41979 ......................................... 64.3 68.6 63.1 78.8 85.5 83.3 76.6 79.81980 ......................................... 62.6 66.5 66.0 78.5 84.6 83.3 80.8 74.71981 ......................................... 63.4 66.8 66.7 77.2 83.7 81.7 79.1 72.21982 ......................................... 60.2 61.7 66.9 76.0 83.0 79.1 76.6 73.61983 ......................................... 61.8 65.1 69.0 76.8 83.0 79.6 74.8 76.31984 ......................................... 67.3 73.2 75.4 78.6 84.5 82.1 77.3 76.31985 ......................................... 68.2 76.9 78.2 80.9 85.0 85.9 77.4 80.61986 ......................................... 68.9 76.3 78.1 82.9 87.2 87.6 80.5 82.61987 ......................................... 72.4 79.5 80.8 84.6 88.8 87.9 82.6 85.81988 ......................................... 76.0 84.8 88.4 88.2 91.9 91.0 88.4 89.91989 ......................................... 76.7 84.6 93.5 91.7 95.0 95.6 91.8 91.91990 ......................................... 77.4 82.2 97.5 93.6 96.5 100.4 91.3 91.61991 ......................................... 76.2 79.3 99.2 93.4 95.9 103.4 90.4 88.51992 ......................................... 78.4 80.3 93.6 92.2 94.5 101.0 89.5 88.81993 ......................................... 80.9 84.2 90.4 89.2 90.9 93.5 87.5 90.81994 ......................................... 85.3 89.4 91.5 93.4 94.4 96.1 92.6 95.71995 ......................................... 89.4 93.5 94.4 96.3 96.1 96.8 98.0 97.31996 ......................................... 93.2 94.7 96.6 96.5 96.0 97.0 96.3 98.71997 ......................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.01998 ......................................... 105.8 103.5 93.5 103.2 103.5 103.7 101.2 101.01999 ......................................... 110.6 109.6 93.8 104.8 106.1 104.9 101.2 102.32000 ......................................... 115.4 119.0 99.0 109.5 110.1 110.7 105.3 104.22001 ........................................ 111.3 114.4 92.7 109.4 111.3 111.0 104.2 102.62002 ........................................ 111.0 116.1 91.7 108.5 109.6 109.9 102.6 100.02003 ........................................ 110.9 117.0 94.5 108.8 109.5 110.3 102.0 99.82004 p ....................................... 115.5 .................. 99.6 .................... ................ ...................... .............. ....................2003: I ...................................... 110.8 117.5 93.8 109.0 110.1 110.6 102.6 99.6II ..................................... 109.7 115.6 93.2 108.1 108.7 109.3 101.4 99.4III .................................... 110.8 116.4 93.9 108.8 109.4 109.1 102.9 99.9IV .................................... 112.4 118.7 97.5 109.9 110.4 111.8 102.8 100.22004: I ...................................... 113.9 118.8 98.1 109.9 110.8 112.2 102.5 99.8II ..................................... 115.1 120.5 100.5 111.0 111.6 113.8 102.7 100.8III .................................... 115.9 122.4 100.1 111.0 111.5 114.1 102.2 99.6IV p ................................. 117.1 .................. 99.1 .................... ................ ...................... .............. ....................Consumer prices (Index, 1982-84=100)1979 ......................................... 72.6 69.2 84.4 65.7 63.6 82.3 52.8 66.61980 ......................................... 82.4 76.1 91.0 74.4 72.2 86.7 63.9 78.51981 ......................................... 90.9 85.6 95.3 83.4 81.8 92.2 75.5 87.91982 ......................................... 96.5 94.9 98.1 92.3 91.7 97.0 87.8 95.41983 ......................................... 99.6 100.4 99.8 100.3 100.3 100.3 100.8 99.81984 ......................................... 103.9 104.7 102.1 107.4 108.0 102.7 111.4 104.81985 ......................................... 107.6 109.0 104.2 114.0 114.3 104.8 121.7 111.11986 ......................................... 109.6 113.5 104.9 118.2 117.2 104.6 128.9 114.91987 ......................................... 113.6 118.4 104.9 122.2 121.1 104.9 135.1 119.71988 ......................................... 118.3 123.2 105.6 126.7 124.3 106.3 141.9 125.61989 ......................................... 124.0 129.3 108.0 133.3 128.7 109.2 150.7 135.41990 ......................................... 130.7 135.5 111.4 141.0 132.9 112.2 160.4 148.21991 ......................................... 136.2 143.1 115.0 148.4 137.2 116.3 170.5 156.91992 ......................................... 140.3 145.3 117.0 155.2 140.4 122.2 179.5 162.71993 ......................................... 144.5 147.9 118.5 161.0 143.4 127.6 187.7 165.31994 ......................................... 148.2 148.2 119.3 166.0 145.8 131.1 195.3 169.31995 ......................................... 152.4 151.4 119.2 171.1 148.4 133.3 205.6 175.21996 ......................................... 156.9 153.8 119.3 175.4 151.4 135.3 213.8 179.41997 ......................................... 160.5 156.3 121.5 179.0 153.2 137.8 218.2 185.11998 ......................................... 163.0 157.8 122.2 182.2 154.2 139.1 222.5 191.41999 ......................................... 166.6 160.5 121.8 184.5 155.0 140.0 226.2 194.32000 ......................................... 172.2 164.9 121.0 188.8 157.6 142.0 231.9 200.12001 ......................................... 177.1 169.1 120.1 193.3 160.2 144.8 238.3 203.62002 ........................................ 179.9 172.9 119.0 197.5 163.3 146.7 244.3 207.02003 ........................................ 184.0 177.7 118.7 201.8 166.7 148.3 250.8 213.02004 p ....................................... 188.9 181.0 118.7 .................... 170.3 150.8 256.3 219.42003: I ...................................... 183.0 177.5 118.4 200.3 165.8 148.2 248.5 210.6II ..................................... 183.7 177.2 119.0 201.6 166.4 148.0 250.3 213.1III .................................... 184.6 177.9 118.7 202.0 166.8 148.4 251.6 213.6IV ................................... 184.6 178.2 118.5 203.1 167.9 148.5 252.8 214.92004: I ...................................... 186.3 179.0 118.3 204.1 168.8 149.6 254.2 216.0II ..................................... 188.9 181.1 118.6 206.2 170.3 150.7 256.1 218.9III .................................... 189.6 181.5 118.6 206.7 170.6 151.2 257.2 220.2IV p .................................. 190.7 182.2 119.2 .................... 171.4 151.5 257.8 222.31See Note, Table B–51 for information on U.S. industrial production series.2Consists of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain,Sweden, and United Kingdom. Data exclude Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Sloveniawhich became members on May 1, 2004.3Prior to 1991 data are for West Germany only.4All data exclude construction. Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.Sources: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Industry Information),Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.334
TABLE B–109.—Civilian unemployment rate, and hourly compensation, major industrial countries,1979–2004[Quarterly data seasonally adjusted]Year or quarterUnitedStatesCanada Japan FranceGermany1ItalyUnitedKingdomCivilian unemployment rate (Percent) 21979 ...................................................................... 5.8 7.3 2.1 6.1 2.9 4.4 5.41980 ...................................................................... 7.1 7.3 2.0 6.5 2.8 4.4 7.01981 ...................................................................... 7.6 7.3 2.2 7.6 4.0 4.9 10.51982 ...................................................................... 9.7 10.6 2.4 38.3 5.6 5.4 11.31983 ...................................................................... 9.6 11.5 2.7 8.6 36.9 5.9 11.81984 ...................................................................... 7.5 10.9 2.8 10.0 7.1 5.9 312.01985 ...................................................................... 7.2 10.2 2.6 10.5 7.2 6.0 11.41986 ...................................................................... 7.0 9.2 2.8 10.6 6.6 37.5 11.41987 ...................................................................... 6.2 8.4 2.9 10.8 6.3 7.9 10.91988 ...................................................................... 5.5 7.3 2.5 10.3 6.3 7.9 8.91989 ...................................................................... 5.3 7.1 2.3 9.6 5.7 7.8 7.31990 ...................................................................... 35.6 7.7 2.1 39.1 5.0 7.0 6.91991 ...................................................................... 6.8 9.8 2.1 9.5 35.6 36.9 8.51992 ...................................................................... 7.5 10.6 2.2 39.9 6.7 7.3 39.71993 ...................................................................... 6.9 10.8 2.5 11.3 8.0 310.2 10.41994 ...................................................................... 36.1 9.5 2.9 11.8 8.5 11.2 9.71995 ...................................................................... 5.6 8.6 3.2 11.3 8.2 11.8 8.71996 ...................................................................... 5.4 8.8 3.4 11.9 9.0 11.7 8.11997 ...................................................................... 4.9 8.4 3.4 11.8 9.9 11.9 7.01998 ...................................................................... 4.5 7.7 4.1 11.3 9.3 12.0 6.31999 ...................................................................... 4.2 7.0 4.7 10.6 38.5 11.5 6.02000 ...................................................................... 4.0 6.1 4.8 9.1 7.8 10.7 5.52001 ...................................................................... 4.7 6.4 5.1 8.4 7.9 9.6 5.12002 ...................................................................... 5.8 7.0 5.4 8.7 8.7 9.1 5.22003 ...................................................................... 6.0 6.9 5.3 9.3 9.7 8.8 5.02004 ...................................................................... 5.5 ............... ............. ............. ................. ........... .................2003: I .................................................................... 5.8 6.7 5.4 9.0 9.6 9.0 5.1II .................................................................. 6.1 6.9 5.4 9.2 9.8 8.8 5.0III ................................................................. 6.1 7.2 5.2 9.4 9.8 8.7 5.0IV ................................................................. 5.9 6.8 5.1 9.4 9.7 8.6 4.92004: I .................................................................... 5.6 6.7 5.0 9.4 9.7 8.6 4.8II .................................................................. 5.6 6.6 4.7 9.4 9.8 ........... 4.8III ................................................................. 5.5 6.4 4.8 9.4 10.0 ........... 4.7IV ................................................................. 5.4 ............... ............. ............. ................. ........... .................Manufacturing hourly compensation in U.S. dollars (Index, 1992=100) 41979 ...................................................................... 49.6 44.0 32.0 44.5 42.0 38.6 31.81980 ...................................................................... 55.6 49.1 32.8 51.6 46.1 43.8 42.21981 ...................................................................... 61.1 54.2 36.0 46.6 39.3 39.1 42.81982 ...................................................................... 67.0 59.7 33.5 45.5 38.8 38.4 40.81983 ...................................................................... 68.8 64.0 36.1 43.4 38.6 39.4 38.11984 ...................................................................... 71.2 64.4 37.1 41.1 36.3 39.1 36.41985 ...................................................................... 75.1 63.6 38.5 43.3 37.2 40.7 38.81986 ...................................................................... 78.5 63.4 57.1 58.4 52.4 54.4 47.91987 ...................................................................... 80.7 68.1 68.2 69.7 66.0 66.0 59.71988 ...................................................................... 84.0 76.1 78.4 72.7 70.4 70.6 69.31989 ...................................................................... 86.6 84.3 77.4 71.3 69.1 72.7 68.41990 ...................................................................... 90.8 91.5 79.2 88.3 86.4 90.1 83.71991 ...................................................................... 95.6 100.1 90.9 90.3 86.1 93.5 93.91992 ...................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.01993 ...................................................................... 102.7 95.5 117.2 96.3 100.4 82.8 88.91994 ...................................................................... 105.6 91.7 129.9 101.7 107.6 81.7 93.11995 ...................................................................... 107.9 93.3 146.1 117.2 128.3 84.2 97.21996 ...................................................................... 109.4 94.8 127.2 116.1 128.0 95.0 98.41997 ...................................................................... 111.5 95.3 117.9 101.3 113.2 88.9 107.31998 ...................................................................... 117.4 91.0 111.7 101.1 113.3 86.7 115.41999 ...................................................................... 122.0 94.2 128.0 100.2 111.1 84.2 118.92000 ...................................................................... 133.2 97.3 133.7 91.5 101.3 75.1 118.02001 ...................................................................... 136.3 96.5 119.5 92.7 101.5 75.5 117.62002 ...................................................................... 145.4 97.6 124.3 103.2 109.9 81.7 129.52003 ...................................................................... 157.8 113.3 135.3 127.0 134.5 100.8 148.31Prior to 1991 data are for West Germany only.2Civilian unemployment rates, approximating U.S. concepts. Quarterly data for Japan, France, Germany, and Italy should be viewed as lessprecise indicators of unemployment under U.S. concepts than the annual data.3There are breaks in the series for France (1982, 1990 and 1992), Germany (1983, 1991 and 1999), Italy (1986, 1991 and 1993), UnitedKingdom (1984 and 1992), and United States (1990 and 1994). For details on break in series in 1990 and 1994 for United States, see footnote5, Table B-35. For details on break in series for other countries, see U.S. Department of Labor Comparative Civilian Labor Force Statistics,Ten Countries: 1959–2003, June 2004.4Hourly compensation in manufacturing, U.S. dollar basis; data relate to all employed persons (employees and self-employed workers).For details on manufacturing hourly compensation see U.S. Department of Labor International Comparisons of Manufacturing Productivityand Unit Labor Cost Trends, 2003, September 30, 2004.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.335
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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C O N T E N T SECONOMIC REPORT OF T
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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the playing field is level for our
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Monetary Policy ...................
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Encouraging FDI ...................
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3-4. The Equivalence of Sales Taxes
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Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent du
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Options for Tax ReformChapter 3, Op
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and better Nation for it. A compreh
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Innovation and the Information Econ
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ecause they do not expect family me
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The Administration has pushed aggre
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C H A P T E R 1The Year in Review a
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Consumer SpendingConsumer spending
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easons for this correlation are dis
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2003, a number of countries that to
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ProductivityRecent productivity gro
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The projected path of inflation as
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strengthen. The forecast is based o
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The growth rate of the economy over
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In sum, potential real GDP is proje
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C H A P T E R 2Expansions Past and
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The behavior of real GDP is similar
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of faltering may be attributable to
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most recent expansions have shown r
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middle of 2003. The more moderate r
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1.2 percent. Employment continued t
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SummaryModerate recessions are foll
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permanent cuts should permanently r
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and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
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Federal government revenues had bee
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Fiscal policy played an especially
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C H A P T E R 3Options for Tax Refo
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High Compliance CostsThe complexity
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a reasonable estimate is that a 10
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Excess BurdenBecause taxes distort
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Box 3-3 — continuedThe bottom 40
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more uniform or pure version of the
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of being collected all at once at t
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would have to differ from state tax
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owner claimed it was for business,
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The current set of saving incentive
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the current system. In addition, so
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C H A P T E R 4ImmigrationIn recent
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TABLE 4-1.— Foreign-Born Share of
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immigrants (also called illegal or
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largest group of immigrants was bor
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employment costs, including wage fl
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Chapter 4 | 103
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wages fall in response to immigrati
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immigrants from Latin America do re
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addition, as migrants leave the cou
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include siblings and adult children
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despite the tremendous growth in th
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The TWP would allow new foreign wor
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C H A P T E R 5Expanding Individual
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This phenomenon, known as the “tr
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producing more of that good. Simila
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In 2002, the President proposed “
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provide evidence of increased profi
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schools are four times as efficient
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low administrative costs, estimated
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Box 5-2: The Benefits of Land Title
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development plan designed by others
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C H A P T E R 6Innovation and theIn
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E-mail is the most common online ac
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Changed circumstances, such as new
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Illegal Acts on the InternetThe Int
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or develop new markets, which can l
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inflation factor for the price cap
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U.S. households connecting to local
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garbling their transmissions. To li
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from 51.3 percent in December 1999
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for their property rights. The Admi
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C H A P T E R 7The Global HIV/AIDS
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Chart 7-1 Estimated HIV Infection L
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There is no cure for HIV/AIDS, thou
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AIDS is more damaging to a househol
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and risk reduction have helped redu
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only one price, the drug companies
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Box 7-1 — continuedfocused on the
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Box 7-2 — continuedenhancing coor
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ConclusionThe United States and cou
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Good Two. In Ricardo’s simple mod
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The Impact of Trade on Labor Market
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The U.S. Advantage in Services Trad
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U.S. firms is associated with a cor
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anked the second-best country out o
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the Chinese government agreed to el
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Trade LiberalizationTariffs and oth
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ConclusionThe United States is the
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on theActiv
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The Council continued its efforts t
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The Staff of the Council of Economi
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John List and Ted Gayer provided co
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Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
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PageB-32. Gross saving and investme
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PageB-94. Relation of profits after
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
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TABLE B-3.—Quantity and price ind
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TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
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TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
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TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
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TABLE B-8.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-10.—Gross value added by
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TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
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TABLE B-13.—Real gross domestic p
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TABLE B-14.—Gross value added of
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TABLE B-16.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-18.—Private fixed investm
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TABLE B-20.—Government consumptio
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TABLE B-22.—Private inventories a
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TABLE B-24.—Foreign transactions
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TABLE B-26.—Relation of gross dom
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TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-30.—Disposition of person
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Year or quarterTABLE B-32.—Gross
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TABLE B-33.—Median money income (
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TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
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TABLE B-36.—Civilian employment a
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TABLE B-38.—Unemployment by demog
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TABLE B-40.—Civilian labor force
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TABLE B-42.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-44.—Unemployment by durat
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TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
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TABLE B-47.—Hours and earnings in
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Year orquarterTABLE B-49.—Product
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
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Year ormonthTABLE B-53.—Industria
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Year or monthTABLE B-55.—New cons
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TABLE B-57.—Manufacturing and tra
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TABLE B-59.—Manufacturers’ new
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Year ormonthTABLE B-61.—Consumer
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TABLE B-62.—Consumer price indexe
Page 280 and 281: TABLE B-64.—Changes in consumer p
Page 282 and 283: TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
Page 284 and 285: TABLE B-67.—Producer price indexe
Page 286 and 287: TABLE B-68.—Changes in producer p
Page 288 and 289: TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
Page 290 and 291: TABLE B-71.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 292 and 293: TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
Page 294 and 295: TABLE B-74.—Credit market borrowi
Page 296 and 297: TABLE B-75.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 298 and 299: TABLE B-77.—Consumer credit outst
Page 300 and 301: TABLE B-79.—Federal receipts, out
Page 302 and 303: TABLE B-81.—Federal receipts, out
Page 304 and 305: TABLE B-83.—Federal and State and
Page 306 and 307: TABLE B-85.—State and local gover
Page 308 and 309: End of yearor monthTABLE B-87.—U.
Page 310 and 311: End of monthTABLE B-89.—Estimated
Page 312 and 313: TABLE B-91.—Corporate profits by
Page 314 and 315: TABLE B-93.—Sales, profits, and s
Page 316 and 317: YearComposite(Dec. 31,2002=5,000) 3
Page 318 and 319: YearAGRICULTURETABLE B-97.—Farm i
Page 320 and 321: TABLE B-99.—Farm output and produ
Page 322 and 323: Year ormonthTABLE B-101.—Agricult
Page 324 and 325: INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-103
Page 326 and 327: TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
Page 328 and 329: TABLE B-106.—U.S. international t
Page 332 and 333: TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
Page 334: TABLE B-112.—Growth rates in real
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