Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B–74.—Credit market borrowing, 1996–2004[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]Item 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003NONFINANCIAL SECTORSDOMESTIC ...................................................................... 716 .8 769 .5 1,041 .7 1,030 .7 837 .5 1,118 .0 1,317 .6 1,659 .9FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ......................................... 144 .9 23 .1 −52 .6 −71 .2 −295 .9 −5 .6 257 .6 396 .0Treasury securities ....................................... 146 .6 23 .2 −54 .6 −71 .0 −294 .9 −5 .1 257 .1 398 .4Budget agency securities and mortgages ... −1 .6 − .1 2 .0 − .2 −1 .0 − .5 .5 −2 .4NONFEDERAL, BY INSTRUMENT ............................ 571 .9 746 .4 1,094 .4 1,101 .9 1,133 .3 1,123 .6 1,060 .1 1,263 .9Commercial paper ......................................... − .9 13 .7 24 .4 37 .4 48 .1 −88 .3 −64 .2 −40 .0Municipal securities and loans .................... −6 .5 56 .9 84 .2 54 .4 23 .6 122 .9 159 .4 135 .1Corporate bonds ............................................ 116 .3 150 .5 235 .2 221 .7 162 .6 348 .5 132 .3 158 .3Bank loans n.e.c. .......................................... 70 .4 106 .4 109 .8 81 .4 97 .7 −82 .0 −87 .2 −82 .2Other loans and advances ............................ 22 .2 43 .1 68 .5 26 .1 79 .6 8 .9 20 .3 10 .0Mortgages ..................................................... 266 .5 306 .0 466 .8 568 .0 554 .4 674 .1 816 .3 994 .3Home ..................................................... 228 .5 241 .8 360 .6 425 .3 410 .9 511 .7 677 .7 796 .7Multifamily residential ......................... 9 .9 7 .2 25 .7 38 .5 29 .4 41 .4 34 .7 65 .3Commercial ........................................... 25 .4 53 .8 73 .9 97 .8 107 .5 113 .4 96 .3 124 .3Farm ...................................................... 2 .7 3 .2 6 .7 6 .5 6 .6 7 .7 7 .6 8 .1Consumer credit ............................................ 104 .0 69 .8 105 .4 113 .0 167 .4 139 .5 83 .2 88 .4NONFEDERAL, BY SECTOR ..................................... 571 .9 746 .4 1,094 .4 1,101 .9 1,133 .3 1,123 .6 1,060 .1 1,263 .9Household sector ........................................... 332 .8 312 .1 438 .9 493 .9 559 .7 622 .9 734 .1 840 .6Nonfinancial business ................................... 255 .0 392 .8 587 .8 569 .5 558 .2 394 .9 182 .0 305 .6Corporate .............................................. 182 .8 291 .8 397 .6 374 .0 354 .4 228 .0 28 .9 146 .6Nonfarm noncorporate ......................... 68 .6 94 .7 179 .9 190 .2 192 .9 156 .4 145 .3 151 .2Farm ...................................................... 3 .5 6 .2 10 .3 5 .3 10 .9 10 .5 7 .8 7 .7State and local governments ....................... −15 .9 41 .5 67 .7 38 .5 15 .5 105 .8 143 .9 117 .8FOREIGN BORROWING IN THE UNITED STATES ............ 88 .0 69 .9 31 .2 13 .0 57 .0 −49 .8 5 .6 −15 .7Commercial paper ................................................. 11 .3 3 .7 7 .8 16 .3 31 .7 −14 .2 36 .1 22 .3Bonds ..................................................................... 66 .6 59 .6 22 .8 1 .9 15 .2 −24 .5 −33 .5 −28 .1Bank loans n.e.c. ................................................... 9 .1 8 .5 6 .6 .5 11 .4 −7 .3 5 .3 −7 .7Other loans and advances .................................... 1 .0 −1 .8 −6 .0 −5 .7 −1 .3 −3 .8 −2 .3 −2 .1NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN BORROWING 804 .8 839 .5 1,073 .0 1,043 .7 894 .5 1,068 .2 1,323 .3 1,644 .3FINANCIAL SECTORSBY INSTRUMENT ............................................................ 532 .7 592 .3 1,063 .8 1,059 .5 805 .4 903 .2 834 .7 989 .3Open market paper ............................................... 92 .2 166 .7 161 .0 176 .2 131 .7 −45 .3 −63 .5 −63 .8GSE issues (government-sponsored enterprises) 90 .4 99 .1 278 .9 318 .8 235 .2 304 .1 219 .8 243 .7Agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pool securities..................................................................... 141 .0 114 .6 192 .7 274 .6 199 .7 338 .5 326 .8 330 .5Corporate bonds .................................................... 160 .6 148 .2 287 .7 188 .7 187 .7 265 .1 333 .3 443 .7Bank loans n.e.c. ................................................... 12 .6 13 .3 28 .5 −12 .8 3 .8 13 .0 1 .3 −4 .6Other loans and advances .................................... 27 .9 35 .6 90 .2 107 .1 42 .5 25 .5 6 .8 31 .2Mortgages .............................................................. 7 .9 14 .9 24 .8 6 .9 4 .9 2 .2 10 .1 8 .5BY SECTOR ..................................................................... 532 .7 592 .3 1,063 .8 1,059 .5 805 .4 903 .2 834 .7 989 .3Commercial banking ............................................. 13 .0 46 .1 72 .9 67 .2 60 .0 52 .9 49 .7 49 .2U.S.-chartered commercial banks ................ 11 .7 29 .5 52 .8 41 .8 36 .8 30 .2 29 .9 13 .9Foreign banking offices in U.S. .................... − .7 −2 .4 −4 .8 − .4 .0 − .9 − .4 − .1Bank holding companies .............................. 2 .0 19 .0 24 .9 25 .8 23 .2 23 .6 20 .3 35 .4Savings institutions ............................................... 25 .5 19 .7 52 .2 48 .0 27 .3 −2 .0 −23 .4 6 .1Government-sponsored enterprises ...................... 90 .4 99 .1 278 .9 318 .8 235 .2 304 .1 219 .8 243 .7Agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools ........... 141 .0 114 .6 192 .7 274 .6 199 .7 338 .5 326 .8 330 .5Asset-backed securities issuers ........................... 133 .3 155 .5 298 .9 192 .6 182 .3 256 .2 191 .6 200 .1Finance companies ................................................ 50 .6 33 .8 57 .1 70 .7 81 .9 1 .3 42 .2 117 .3REITS (real estate investment trusts) .................. 11 .9 39 .6 62 .7 10 .4 4 .5 3 .2 26 .2 32 .3Brokers and dealers .............................................. −2 .0 8 .1 7 .2 −17 .2 15 .6 1 .4 −1 .7 6 .4Funding corporations ............................................ 63 .8 79 .9 40 .0 91 .6 − .3 −54 .6 − .5 −1 .4Other 1 .................................................................... 5 .3 −4 .3 1 .3 2 .9 − .7 2 .1 4 .0 5 .1ALL SECTORSBY INSTRUMENT ............................................................ 1,337 .5 1,431 .8 2,136 .7 2,103 .2 1,699 .9 1,971 .4 2,158 .0 2,633 .6Open market paper ............................................... 102 .6 184 .1 193 .1 229 .9 211 .6 −147 .8 −91 .5 −81 .6Treasury securities ................................................ 146 .6 23 .2 −54 .6 −71 .0 −294 .9 −5 .1 257 .1 398 .4Agency- and GSE-backed securities ..................... 229 .8 213 .6 473 .6 593 .1 433 .9 642 .1 547 .2 571 .9Municipal securities .............................................. −6 .5 56 .9 84 .2 54 .4 23 .6 122 .9 159 .4 135 .1Corporate and foreign bonds ................................ 343 .5 358 .3 545 .7 412 .4 365 .5 589 .1 432 .1 573 .9Bank loans n.e.c. ................................................... 92 .1 128 .2 145 .0 69 .0 112 .8 −76 .2 −80 .6 −94 .5Other loans and advances .................................... 51 .1 76 .9 152 .7 127 .5 120 .8 30 .6 24 .7 39 .1Mortgages .............................................................. 274 .4 320 .9 491 .6 574 .9 559 .2 676 .3 826 .5 1,002 .9Consumer credit .................................................... 104 .0 69 .8 105 .4 113 .0 167 .4 139 .5 83 .2 88 .41Credit unions, life insurance companies, and mortgage companies.See next page for continuation of table.298
TABLE B–74.—Credit market borrowing, 1996–2004—Continued[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]2003 2004ItemI II III IV I II IIINONFINANCIAL SECTORSDOMESTIC ......................................................................................... 1,482 .9 2,297 .1 1,514 .0 1,345 .7 2,024 .7 1,592 .0 1,710 .0FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ........................................................... 184 .0 723 .0 317 .1 360 .0 483 .9 444 .9 207 .0Treasury securities ......................................................... 185 .6 722 .5 317 .0 368 .6 482 .9 448 .6 208 .9Budget agency securities and mortgages ..................... −1 .6 .5 .1 −8 .6 1 .1 −3 .6 −1 .9NONFEDERAL, BY INSTRUMENT .............................................. 1,298 .9 1,574 .0 1,196 .9 985 .7 1,540 .7 1,147 .0 1,502 .9Commercial paper ........................................................... −9 .3 −81 .4 4 .8 −74 .3 34 .4 32 .9 23 .0Municipal securities and loans ...................................... 119 .9 182 .6 130 .0 107 .7 167 .5 82 .0 241 .4Corporate bonds .............................................................. 169 .5 297 .0 96 .1 70 .6 114 .2 5 .7 33 .8Bank loans n.e.c. ............................................................ −84 .9 −42 .1 −111 .0 −90 .8 −46 .5 91 .7 −12 .4Other loans and advances .............................................. 4 .2 −9 .9 −22 .9 68 .7 23 .2 −30 .7 24 .0Mortgages ....................................................................... 1,009 .7 1,119 .1 991 .0 857 .6 1,121 .1 918 .0 1,069 .8Home ....................................................................... 859 .6 907 .1 769 .0 651 .1 945 .8 732 .8 860 .9Multifamily residential ........................................... 39 .4 69 .9 64 .9 87 .0 15 .0 47 .2 29 .7Commercial ............................................................. 102 .4 135 .2 148 .6 110 .9 153 .4 127 .4 170 .2Farm ........................................................................ 8 .3 6 .9 8 .5 8 .6 6 .9 10 .6 8 .9Consumer credit .............................................................. 89 .7 108 .8 108 .9 46 .1 126 .8 47 .5 123 .4NONFEDERAL, BY SECTOR ....................................................... 1,298 .9 1,574 .0 1,196 .9 985 .7 1,540 .7 1,147 .0 1,502 .9Household sector ............................................................. 918 .3 988 .3 835 .3 620 .3 1,052 .9 810 .5 887 .9Nonfinancial business ..................................................... 281 .0 419 .6 252 .6 269 .1 339 .1 273 .0 386 .5Corporate ................................................................ 167 .1 272 .9 71 .9 74 .6 195 .8 92 .4 194 .4Nonfarm noncorporate ............................................ 107 .6 143 .8 168 .8 184 .7 138 .7 167 .6 171 .5Farm ........................................................................ 6 .3 2 .9 12 .0 9 .8 4 .5 12 .9 20 .6State and local governments ......................................... 99 .5 166 .1 109 .1 96 .3 148 .8 63 .5 228 .5FOREIGN BORROWING IN THE UNITED STATES ............................... 17 .8 −61 .8 −64 .7 46 .0 70 .8 −63 .8 9 .0Commercial paper ................................................................... 52 .0 72 .9 −56 .0 20 .2 100 .1 −29 .6 24 .9Bonds ....................................................................................... −29 .9 −100 .2 −8 .8 26 .5 −19 .6 −39 .7 2 .3Bank loans n.e.c. ..................................................................... −4 .0 −31 .4 5 .3 − .7 −6 .7 7 .0 −9 .0Other loans and advances ...................................................... − .2 −3 .0 −5 .3 − .0 −2 .9 −1 .5 −9 .3NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN BORROWING .................. 1,500 .7 2,235 .3 1,449 .3 1,391 .7 2,095 .5 1,528 .2 1,718 .9FINANCIAL SECTORSBY INSTRUMENT ............................................................................... 972 .2 857 .7 1,053 .4 1,073 .9 672 .0 873 .9 688 .3Open market paper ................................................................. −27 .7 −50 .6 −62 .5 −114 .3 149 .6 10 .8 −64 .4GSE issues (government-sponsored enterprises) ................... 225 .8 192 .4 459 .9 96 .9 18 .2 234 .4 108 .0Agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pool securities .............. 272 .2 266 .9 307 .6 475 .3 80 .1 74 .0 59 .4Corporate bonds ...................................................................... 497 .1 395 .6 319 .9 562 .4 295 .7 407 .1 555 .3Bank loans n.e.c. ..................................................................... −38 .6 12 .1 14 .6 −6 .5 25 .3 −34 .4 51 .2Other loans and advances ...................................................... 43 .9 38 .2 .7 41 .9 76 .0 166 .1 −30 .9Mortgages ................................................................................ − .4 3 .1 13 .2 18 .1 27 .2 15 .9 9 .8BY SECTOR ....................................................................................... 972 .2 857 .7 1,053 .4 1,073 .9 672 .0 873 .9 688 .3Commercial banking ................................................................ 80 .9 28 .0 2 .8 85 .2 187 .6 7 .1 60 .1U.S.-chartered commercial banks .................................. 15 .7 28 .7 −6 .0 17 .1 85 .0 −9 .3 −2 .0Foreign banking offices in U.S. ...................................... − .5 − .2 .1 .3 − .1 .3 .4Bank holding companies ................................................. 65 .7 − .6 8 .7 67 .8 102 .8 16 .1 61 .7Savings institutions ................................................................. −18 .0 16 .9 .4 25 .0 −7 .0 184 .4 −21 .0Government-sponsored enterprises ........................................ 225 .8 192 .4 459 .9 96 .9 18 .2 234 .4 108 .0Agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools ............................. 272 .2 266 .9 307 .6 475 .3 80 .1 74 .0 59 .4Asset-backed securities issuers ............................................. 256 .5 240 .1 166 .6 137 .4 126 .3 300 .6 357 .0Finance companies .................................................................. 45 .6 171 .1 104 .1 148 .2 134 .0 −19 .7 89 .8REITS (real estate investment trusts) .................................... 17 .5 12 .5 43 .7 55 .7 67 .8 43 .6 84 .4Brokers and dealers ................................................................ 38 .4 −16 .2 9 .9 −6 .6 51 .9 2 .5 33 .2Funding corporations ............................................................... 46 .2 −57 .0 −48 .0 53 .3 16 .2 39 .5 −83 .5Other 1 ...................................................................................... 7 .2 3 .1 6 .4 3 .5 −3 .1 7 .6 1 .0ALL SECTORSBY INSTRUMENT ............................................................................... 2,473 .0 3,093 .0 2,502 .7 2,465 .6 2,767 .5 2,402 .1 2,407 .2Open market paper ................................................................. 15 .0 −59 .2 −113 .7 −168 .5 284 .2 14 .2 −16 .4Treasury securities .................................................................. 185 .6 722 .5 317 .0 368 .6 482 .9 448 .6 208 .9Agency- and GSE-backed securities ....................................... 496 .4 459 .9 767 .5 563 .6 99 .3 304 .7 165 .4Municipal securities ................................................................ 119 .9 182 .6 130 .0 107 .7 167 .5 82 .0 241 .4Corporate and foreign bonds .................................................. 636 .6 592 .4 407 .2 659 .6 390 .2 373 .0 591 .4Bank loans n.e.c. ..................................................................... −127 .5 −61 .4 −91 .1 −98 .0 −28 .0 64 .3 29 .8Other loans and advances ...................................................... 48 .0 25 .4 −27 .4 110 .6 96 .3 133 .9 −16 .2Mortgages ................................................................................ 1,009 .3 1,122 .1 1,004 .2 875 .8 1,148 .3 933 .9 1,079 .5Consumer credit ...................................................................... 89 .7 108 .8 108 .9 46 .1 126 .8 47 .5 123 .4Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.299
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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C O N T E N T SECONOMIC REPORT OF T
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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the playing field is level for our
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Monetary Policy ...................
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Encouraging FDI ...................
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3-4. The Equivalence of Sales Taxes
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Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent du
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Options for Tax ReformChapter 3, Op
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and better Nation for it. A compreh
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Innovation and the Information Econ
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ecause they do not expect family me
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The Administration has pushed aggre
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C H A P T E R 1The Year in Review a
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Consumer SpendingConsumer spending
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easons for this correlation are dis
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2003, a number of countries that to
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ProductivityRecent productivity gro
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The projected path of inflation as
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strengthen. The forecast is based o
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The growth rate of the economy over
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In sum, potential real GDP is proje
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C H A P T E R 2Expansions Past and
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The behavior of real GDP is similar
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of faltering may be attributable to
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most recent expansions have shown r
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middle of 2003. The more moderate r
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1.2 percent. Employment continued t
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SummaryModerate recessions are foll
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permanent cuts should permanently r
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and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
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Federal government revenues had bee
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Fiscal policy played an especially
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C H A P T E R 3Options for Tax Refo
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High Compliance CostsThe complexity
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a reasonable estimate is that a 10
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Excess BurdenBecause taxes distort
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Box 3-3 — continuedThe bottom 40
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more uniform or pure version of the
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of being collected all at once at t
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would have to differ from state tax
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owner claimed it was for business,
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The current set of saving incentive
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the current system. In addition, so
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C H A P T E R 4ImmigrationIn recent
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TABLE 4-1.— Foreign-Born Share of
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immigrants (also called illegal or
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largest group of immigrants was bor
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employment costs, including wage fl
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Chapter 4 | 103
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wages fall in response to immigrati
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immigrants from Latin America do re
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addition, as migrants leave the cou
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include siblings and adult children
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despite the tremendous growth in th
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The TWP would allow new foreign wor
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C H A P T E R 5Expanding Individual
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This phenomenon, known as the “tr
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producing more of that good. Simila
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In 2002, the President proposed “
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provide evidence of increased profi
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schools are four times as efficient
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low administrative costs, estimated
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Box 5-2: The Benefits of Land Title
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development plan designed by others
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C H A P T E R 6Innovation and theIn
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E-mail is the most common online ac
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Changed circumstances, such as new
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Illegal Acts on the InternetThe Int
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or develop new markets, which can l
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inflation factor for the price cap
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U.S. households connecting to local
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garbling their transmissions. To li
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from 51.3 percent in December 1999
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for their property rights. The Admi
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C H A P T E R 7The Global HIV/AIDS
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Chart 7-1 Estimated HIV Infection L
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There is no cure for HIV/AIDS, thou
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AIDS is more damaging to a househol
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and risk reduction have helped redu
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only one price, the drug companies
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Box 7-1 — continuedfocused on the
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Box 7-2 — continuedenhancing coor
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ConclusionThe United States and cou
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Good Two. In Ricardo’s simple mod
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The Impact of Trade on Labor Market
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The U.S. Advantage in Services Trad
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U.S. firms is associated with a cor
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anked the second-best country out o
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the Chinese government agreed to el
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Trade LiberalizationTariffs and oth
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ConclusionThe United States is the
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on theActiv
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The Council continued its efforts t
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The Staff of the Council of Economi
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John List and Ted Gayer provided co
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Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
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PageB-32. Gross saving and investme
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PageB-94. Relation of profits after
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
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TABLE B-3.—Quantity and price ind
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TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
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TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
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TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
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TABLE B-8.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-10.—Gross value added by
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TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
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TABLE B-13.—Real gross domestic p
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TABLE B-14.—Gross value added of
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TABLE B-16.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-18.—Private fixed investm
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TABLE B-20.—Government consumptio
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TABLE B-22.—Private inventories a
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TABLE B-24.—Foreign transactions
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TABLE B-26.—Relation of gross dom
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TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-30.—Disposition of person
Page 244 and 245: Year or quarterTABLE B-32.—Gross
Page 246 and 247: TABLE B-33.—Median money income (
Page 248 and 249: TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
Page 250 and 251: TABLE B-36.—Civilian employment a
Page 252 and 253: TABLE B-38.—Unemployment by demog
Page 254 and 255: TABLE B-40.—Civilian labor force
Page 256 and 257: TABLE B-42.—Civilian unemployment
Page 258 and 259: TABLE B-44.—Unemployment by durat
Page 260 and 261: TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
Page 262 and 263: TABLE B-47.—Hours and earnings in
Page 264 and 265: Year orquarterTABLE B-49.—Product
Page 266 and 267: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
Page 268 and 269: Year ormonthTABLE B-53.—Industria
Page 270 and 271: Year or monthTABLE B-55.—New cons
Page 272 and 273: TABLE B-57.—Manufacturing and tra
Page 274 and 275: TABLE B-59.—Manufacturers’ new
Page 276 and 277: Year ormonthTABLE B-61.—Consumer
Page 278 and 279: TABLE B-62.—Consumer price indexe
Page 280 and 281: TABLE B-64.—Changes in consumer p
Page 282 and 283: TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
Page 284 and 285: TABLE B-67.—Producer price indexe
Page 286 and 287: TABLE B-68.—Changes in producer p
Page 288 and 289: TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
Page 290 and 291: TABLE B-71.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 292 and 293: TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
Page 296 and 297: TABLE B-75.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 298 and 299: TABLE B-77.—Consumer credit outst
Page 300 and 301: TABLE B-79.—Federal receipts, out
Page 302 and 303: TABLE B-81.—Federal receipts, out
Page 304 and 305: TABLE B-83.—Federal and State and
Page 306 and 307: TABLE B-85.—State and local gover
Page 308 and 309: End of yearor monthTABLE B-87.—U.
Page 310 and 311: End of monthTABLE B-89.—Estimated
Page 312 and 313: TABLE B-91.—Corporate profits by
Page 314 and 315: TABLE B-93.—Sales, profits, and s
Page 316 and 317: YearComposite(Dec. 31,2002=5,000) 3
Page 318 and 319: YearAGRICULTURETABLE B-97.—Farm i
Page 320 and 321: TABLE B-99.—Farm output and produ
Page 322 and 323: Year ormonthTABLE B-101.—Agricult
Page 324 and 325: INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-103
Page 326 and 327: TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
Page 328 and 329: TABLE B-106.—U.S. international t
Page 330 and 331: TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
Page 332 and 333: TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
Page 334: TABLE B-112.—Growth rates in real
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