Real freedom for all turtles in Sugarscape? - Presses universitaires ...

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B o u l a n g e r – R e a l f r e e d o m f o r a l l t u r t l e s i n S u g a r s c a p e ? 101almost every scenario than in Sugarscape 1. Note however how theirchances drop between the scenario 2,2/0,14 and the 2,2/0,15 one. A differenceof only 0.01 in the contribution rate is sufficient to entail a fall of theirsurvival probabilities of 26%.Prob AllProb.LuckyProb.UnluckyProb.middlesGiniCoeff.Sugarscape 1 0,569 0,93 0,116 0,541 0,43Sugarscape 22,1 / 0,13 0,552 0,943 0,124 0,504 0,392,1 / 0,14 0,554 0,920 0,129 0,541 0,3972,1 / 0,15 0,547 0,911 0,118 0,512 0,3922,2 / 0,13 0,523 0,934 0,141 0,458 0,3512,2 / 0,14 0,526 0,910 0,136 0,475 0,3572,2 / 0,15 0,520 0,918 0,101 0,468 0,353Sugarscape 31,5 / 0,08 0,574 0,976 0,142 0,524 0,2961,5 / 0,09 0,556 0,968 0,127 0,510 0,2731,5/ 0,10 0,579 0,971 0,152 0,535 0,2921,5 / 0,11 0,587 0,969 0,157 0,548 0,3031,6 / 0,14 0,593 0,952 0,187 0,556 0,2941,6 / 0,15 0,609 0,956 0,206 0,580 0,311,6 / 0,16 0,533 0,952 0,08 0,482 0,2281,7 / 0.14 0,586 0,955 0,179 0,543 0,2741,7 / 0,15 0,589 0,960 0,169 0,551 0,2771,7 / 0,16 0,588 0,950 0,179 0,546 0,2761,7 / 0,17 0,61 0,953 0,213 0,578 0,291,7 / 0,18 0,583 0,945 0,188 0,547 0,2751,7 / 0,19 0,515 0,957 0,063 0,457 0,207Table 1. Comparison between the three worldsThe same phenomenon occurs in Sugarscape 3 where a change in the taxrate from 0,15 to 0,16 (holding the basic income fixed at 1,6) or from 0,18 to0,19 at a value of 1,7 for the grant entails dramatic drops (up to 96%) in thelife chances 8 of the disadvantaged. This demonstrates how non-linear thebehaviour of the system can be, despite its apparent simplicity. It also shows8Confirmed: when a result is too different from expected, taking account of adjacentvalues, we confirm it by running the scenario a hundred times instead of the usual thirty.
102A r g u i n g a b o u t j u s t i c ethat for any given level of the grant, there is only a very narrow range ofvalues of the tax rate which is favourable to turtles’ welfare.On the contrary, Sugarscape 3 offers better life chances for the wholepopulation and also for every subgroup. It is also the most wealthequalitarian.Under a veil of ignorance on how they are likely to fare in thisnew world they are flying to – e.g. as to of what use would be a sharp visionin a world where the sugar grows under the ground – a rational turtlewould prefer to land on Sugarscape 3 than on any of the two others.How can we explain these better performances of Sugarscape 3 withrespect to Sugarscape 2? Note that if the differences in probabilities betweenthe best scenario for Sugarscape 2 and the best one for Sugarscape 3 looksignificant, the actual difference in raw numbers doesn’t exceed 10-12average individuals and only about 3 unlucky ones. This makes difficult thesearch for ex post explanations. However, figs 4 and 5 give us some clues.Fig. 4. Evolution of the “GDP” per capitaFig. 5. Evolution of total savings (wealth)
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