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If Marx or Freud had never lived?Jon ElsterAbstract (in French)Dans cet article, on se pose la question contrefactuelle de savoir ce qui se seraitpassé si Marx et Freud n’avaient jamais vécu. On examine d’une part leur impactsur le bien-être de l’humanité et de l’autre part leur impact sur notre connaissancede l’homme et de la société. On se demande aussi si d’autres personnes auraient prisleur place et accompli ce qu’ils ont réalisé. Avec les réserves et les hésitations derigueur, on conclut que le monde et notre connaissance du monde auraient profités’ils n’avaient jamais vécu.IntroductionCounterfactual history is a delicate subject, partly because it may bedifficult to establish an appropriate antecedent (if we assume away onefactor in the past, how much else do have to assume away?) and partlybecause it may be difficult to determine the consequent (do our causaltheories allow us to determine a unique alternative outcome, or at least arange of outcomes?). The most ambitious attempt to date, Fogel’s study ofthe economic development of an American economy without the railroad,tries to address both questions, with questionable success (Elster 1978).In a subset of counterfactual issues, the first difficulty – the indeterminacyof the antecedent – takes a particular form. If we ask what would haveensued if a particular individual had never lived, we have to ask whethersomeone else would have taken that person’s place and realized all or someof his or her accomplishments. In this article I address a special question ofthis kind: what would have happened if Marx or Freud had never lived?The question of "the role of the individual in history" is not one that lendsitself easily to meaningful discussion. I shall nevertheless try to make somegeneral observations, and then address my two specific counterfactualquestions. Consider as an example the importance of Napoleon. In a letter toW. Borgius from 1894, Engels wrote, naively:That such and such a man and precisely that man arises at that particular time inthat given country is of course pure accident. But cut him out and there will be ademand for a substitute, and this substitute will be found, tant bien que mal, butin the long run he will be found. That Napoleon, just that particular Corsican,219