DELIVERING THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY A TOOLKIT FOR POLICYMAKERS

DELIVERING THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY – A TOOLKIT FOR POLICYMAKERS • 115
and generating up to 10% net material savings. While 3D printing is likely to remain
at a conceptual stage, it is reasonable to assume that approximately 2% of
new building components could be 3D printed, for which around 25% material
and 40% labour savings could be achieved. 182
• By 2035, industrialised (non-3D printing) production of modular building components
could have taken as much as 50% of the total market, leading to 15%
material savings. 3D printing could grow to a sizable share of the market, addressing
up to 25% of all building components.
If these opportunities are captured, modelling suggests that industrialised production
and 3D printing of modules could create an estimated annual value of EUR 450–600
(40–60) million by 2035 (2020). 183 These findings give a directional view of the
magnitude of this opportunity for Denmark. They rely by necessity on a number of
assumptions, the most important of which are detailed in Appendix B.
BARRIERS AND POTENTIAL POLICY OPTIONS
The following paragraphs provide an initial perspective on the barriers limiting the
‘industrialised production and 3D printing of building modules’ opportunity (see Section
2.2.4 for the barriers framework). The critical barriers to unlocking this opportunity lie
in the technology and legal framework around 3D printing. As discussed above, while
the application of 3D-printing technology in construction has progressed significantly in
recent years, it is still at the early commercial stage and would need further development
to be economic at large scale, able to compete with more standard methods. The
WinSun 3D-printed houses referred to above were completed in spring 2014 (ten
individual houses) and in early 2015 (a five-storey house and a villa). 184 Equally important
is the lack of a strong legal framework to ensure that the technology has a positive
impact, both in terms of environmental and technical performance and the health
of occupants. According to industry and policy experts, it cannot become a widely
trusted approach while it is still open to the use of any material, however non-circular or
hazardous to the health of building occupants.
Experts in the industry were also of the opinion that important social barriers exist for
both industrial production of modules and 3D printing. Many players in the construction
industry are unwilling to change long-established operational practices, such as
rigid business models and extensive subcontracting, resulting in fragmented (overspecialised)
knowledge and capabilities. While this factor will to some extent be relevant
in any industry, consultation with experts indicated that the construction industry is
particularly bound by more traditional practices. On the consumer side homebuyers may
also be unwilling to trust non-traditional building approaches. The capital intensity of the
industrial facilities in which to produce modules would be a challenge for the industry in
Denmark, as it is made up by a large number of SMEs.
To address these barriers, the following policy options could be further investigated.
These options are the result of an initial assessment of how cost-effectively different
policy options might overcome the identified barriers (see Section 2.3.3):
• Complementing building codes with circularity ratings and targets:
o
o
Ratings indicating the circularity potential of materials and construction
techniques.
Circular economy targets that set minimum requirements using a
scoring mechanism. Denmark and the UK have already introduced
182 Estimated by taking half of WinSun’s reported savings, since there is still very little data to exemplify cost
savings. Actual savings will vary on a case-by-case basis and be dependent on the size and complexity of
components being 3D printed.
183 This sector-specific impact does not include indirect effects, e.g. on supply chains, that are captured in the
economy-wide CGE modelling.
184 Michelle Starr in CNET, World’s first 3D-printed apartment building constructed in China (20 January 2015).