Managing Computers in Large Organizations

Managing Microcomputers in Large Organizations
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/167.html
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THE USER ERA 126
The first phenomenon can be called limits to the design activity. The
software factories of the late 1960s and early 1970s were established to solve
most if not all software development problems. They have not, however,
succeeded as envisioned. As systems developed and proliferated more users
were trained. Over time these users requested more and more changes to the
basic systems. Such changes, part of the software “maintenance” process, have
used up 70 percent of the in-house programming resources of most
organizations. Unfortunately, this does not mean that 30 percent of the
corporate programming staff will always be available for new functions. A
hypothetical example shows why: If an organization began development of a
system with 1,000 programmer/analysts, at the end of the effort 700 would
remain for maintenance and 300 would be available to develop a second
system. This second design activity, when finished would require 210 personnel
(70 percent) for maintenance, leaving only 90 programmer/analysts for the third
system. It is obvious from this example that the number of systems any single
organization can both develop and maintain is finite. And user frustration is the
ultimate result.
The second phenomenon is increased user literacy. For more than 20 years
computers represented a mysterious technology, understood only by data
processing professionals. Today, however, computers are everywhere, and
computer literacy, aided by software products that permit unique system
development without the need to understand COBOL, FORTRAN, or any other
high order language, has greatly increased.
The third phenomenon that has spurred movement out of the control stage
is the technology explosion. The cost performance curve in logical devices has
led to a sizable expansion in their use. If we continue to acquire computers in
the future at the same rate as we have in the past, we will compound deliveries
at 25 percent annually. Theoretically, computer growth requires an equivalent
expansion in trained programmers. Today there are 300,000 programmers. By
one estimate, approximately 3 million would be needed by 1994 to maintain the
current computer-to-programmer ratio. Since such expansion is unlikely, greater
dependence must by placed on the user community. Fortunately, the software
industry has the capability to help solve the problem.
The dynamics of change in the information industry and society's
continuing thirst for technology-aided solutions demand responses from
organizational management. One user of computer
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