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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay examines Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program and the challenges it poses for regional and international security. MAIN ARGUMENT Pakistan developed a nuclear weapons capability through the clandestine acquisition of fissile material and nuclear technology. It subsequently proliferated this to third countries, thereby violating both its own laws and international norms. Today, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program poses three distinct challenges to international security: (1) thet or acquisition of nuclear material from within the country by terrorist groups, (2) state-to-state transfer of this capability to other countries, particularly in the Middle East, for financial or strategic gains, and (3) a nuclear confrontation with India, with which Pakistan has engaged in wars in the past. POLICY IMPLICATIONS • Pakistan’s unpredictable internal dynamic poses a significant challenge for the goals of nuclear stability and nonproliferation. Likely proliferation scenarios include use by a terrorist entity, state-sanctioned proliferation, or conflict with India. • Nuclear confrontation between Pakistan and India, the principal source of Pakistan’s nuclear compulsion, is a serious threat. This outcome is most likely to arise in the event of a state-sponsored terrorist attack on India or escalation following conventional military conflict along the Pakistan-India border. • Given an atmosphere of increasing global uncertainty, the United States should examine all options to prevent nuclear proliferation from Pakistan, including both consensual and (less desirable) coercive methods.
In an interview in 2006, Robert Gallucci, a leading U.S. expert on arms control and disarmament, stated that Pakistan is “the number one threat to the world…[I]f it all goes off—a nuclear bomb in a U.S. or European city—I’m sure we will find ourselves looking in Pakistan’s direction.” 1 Ten years since these remarks, the situation in Pakistan has worsened. 2 The country’s internal stability is weakening under the strain of ethnic and sectarian differences as well as poor economic conditions. In 2014 the Fund for Peace ranked Pakistan tenth in its global analysis of “failing states.” 3 Yet in contrast with other states on this list, Pakistan is a nuclear weapon state with the world’s fastest-growing nuclear arsenal and effective delivery means, while also being a hotbed of global terrorism. This is a unique combination. Given these conditions, nuclear proliferation from Pakistan poses serious challenges to international and regional security, with major implications for U.S. interests. Nuclear proliferation is a term that describes the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information to nations that are not recognized as “nuclear weapon states” by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Pakistan does not qualify as a nuclear weapon state under this definition and instead may be defined as a “state with nuclear weapons.” 4 Beginning in 1974, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program under A.Q. Khan evolved through the clandestine acquisition of nuclear material and technology from around the world. Pakistan also later proliferated these to a number of other countries in violation of its own laws and other states’ nonproliferation legal commitments. This essay analyzes the threat of such proliferation from Pakistan. The first section examines Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program and the doctrine the country has adopted for nuclear weapons use. The essay then assesses the dangers this poses to international security through three possible scenarios. One is thet or acquisition of nuclear material by terrorist groups in Pakistan or affiliated organizations in other countries. A second scenario is the deliberate illegal state-to-state transfer of such a capability. Third, there is the possibility of a nuclear conflict with India. Following this discussion, the essay examines the impact on international security, particularly in the worsening geostrategic environment of the Middle East. Finally, the essay concludes with recommendations for U.S. policy to counter this threat to the region. Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Program and Policy for Use Pakistan’s Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Pakistan is considered to have the fith-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, which includes an estimated 120 nuclear weapons of low- to high-yield boosted fission devices. 5 It also possesses 1 Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark, Deception: Pakistan, the United States and the Global Nuclear Weapons Conspiracy (New Delhi: Penguin Books, 2007), 449. 2 A lot of the material contained in this essay is drawn from six rounds of a trilateral nuclear strategic dialogue conducted by the author while at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. The dialogue gathered senior military officials, diplomats, and experts from India, Pakistan, and China and took place from 2008 to 2012 at various locations in Asia. I am grateful for the comments of the participants and their insights, all of which cannot be quoted in full. This program was supported by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), based in Washington, D.C. The reports of the conference have not been publicly released and hence are not available for attribution. The author takes responsibility for their veracity. 3 See Fund for Peace, “Country Data and Trends: Pakistan,” 2014, http://ffp.statesindex.org/2014-pakistan. 4 A “nuclear weapon state” is a legal term used in the NPT to refer to nations that had manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device prior to January 1, 1967. See art. 9, par. 3, of the NPT, http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPT.shtml. 5 Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris, “World Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Report,” Ploughshares Fund, August 2014, http://www. ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report. Pakistan is shown to have 120 nuclear weapons and India 110 nuclear weapons. PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION u BANERJEE 157
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the national bureau of asian resear
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nbr special report #55 | february 2
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nbr special report #55 | february 2
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Yet Pakistan’s instability is not
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prosecute its leaders for war crime
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efforts toward real security—both
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to both U.S. and regional interests
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Few countries in the developing wor
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provinces from 47.5% to 56.0% in 20
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the local level. Provincial governm
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asking the U.S. government to inter
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to abolish the National Security Co
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parties, the resulting plan gives e
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the novel idea to reserve quotas fo
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many of them in their teens, 38 who
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involvement in violence in Indian-c
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The righteous rage articulated by I
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay diachr
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While Pakistani elites have time an
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f i g u r e 1 All political violenc
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f i g u r e 3 Communal violence in
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f i g u r e 5 Terrorist violence in
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Figure 1 depicts all political viol
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(Jaish-e-Mohammad, Harkat-ul-Jihadi
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When the Soviet Union withdrew from
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During this same period when Pakist
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groups form the backbone of the TTP
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particularly from the army. The dir
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Not only has Pakistan for the most
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other relevant historical opinions
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay argues
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political accountability. The essay
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Residents of the area note that Cha
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modernizing middle-class nationalis
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From Religious Education to Sectari
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During the past few years the mains
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worker did not plan to vote for Imr
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Baluch (backed by the PPP) against
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so oten compete. Teachers and their
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The trauma of partition in 1947 emb
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the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes.
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t a b l e 1 Bilateral trade between
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Challenges in the Bilateral Relatio
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war of liberation in 1971, the Sovi
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within India view the November 26 a
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that such groups or individuals—t
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political and strategic discourse,
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project. 74 In November 2014, the s
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Diplomatic relations between China
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in military equipment to Pakistan.
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