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the national bureau of asian research The NBR Special Report provides access to current research on special topics conducted by the world’s leading experts in Asian affairs. The views expressed in these reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of other NBR research associates or institutions that support NBR. The National Bureau of Asian Research is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution dedicated to informing and strengthening policy. NBR conducts advanced independent research on strategic, political, economic, globalization, health, and energy issues affecting U.S. relations with Asia. Drawing upon an extensive network of the world’s leading specialists and leveraging the latest technology, NBR bridges the academic, business, and policy arenas. The institution disseminates its research through briefings, publications, conferences, Congressional testimony, and email forums, and by collaborating with leading institutions worldwide. NBR also provides exceptional internship opportunities to graduate and undergraduate students for the purpose of attracting and training the next generation of Asia specialists. NBR was started in 1989 with a major grant from the Henry M. Jackson Foundation. Funding for NBR’s research and publications comes from foundations, corporations, individuals, the U.S. government, and from NBR itself. NBR does not conduct proprietary or classified research. The organization undertakes contract work for government and private-sector organizations only when NBR can maintain the right to publish findings from such work. To download issues of the NBR Special Report, please visit the NBR website http://www.nbr.org. This report may be reproduced for personal use. Otherwise, the NBR Special Report may not be reproduced in full without the written permission of NBR. When information from NBR publications is cited or quoted, please cite the author and The National Bureau of Asian Research. This is the fity-fith NBR Special Report. NBR is a tax-exempt, nonprofit corporation under I.R.C. Sec. 501(c)(3), qualified to receive tax-exempt contributions. © 2016 by The National Bureau of Asian Research. Front cover image: “Keeping watch at Baine Baba Ziarat” by Al Jazeera English, used under a creative commons attribution-share-alike 2.0 license. For further information about NBR, contact: The National Bureau of Asian Research 1414 NE 42nd Street, Suite 300 Seattle, Washington 98105 206-632-7370 Phone 206-632-7487 Fax nbr@nbr.org E-mail http://www.nbr.org
nbr special report #55 | february 2016 mapping <strong>pakistan’s</strong> internal dynamics Implications for State Stability and Regional Security TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Mapping Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics: Implications for State Stability and Regional Security Mahin Karim Mapping Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics 11 33 59 Mapping Pakistan’s Political Superstructure Mumtaz Ahmad Pakistan’s Internal Security Environment C. Christine Fair Informal Agencies of Influence in Pakistan: The Interdependence of Social, Religious, and Political Trends Matthew J. Nelson Assessing Pakistan’s Geopolitical Environment 79 99 111 India-Pakistan Relations and Regional Stability Aryaman Bhatnagar and C. Raja Mohan Pakistan’s Relations with China and Implications for Regional Stability Jayadeva Ranade Pakistan’s Relations with Iran and the Implications for Regional Stability Tariq A. Karim
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Page 9 and 10: Yet Pakistan’s instability is not
Page 11 and 12: prosecute its leaders for war crime
Page 13 and 14: efforts toward real security—both
Page 15 and 16: to both U.S. and regional interests
Page 19 and 20: Few countries in the developing wor
Page 21 and 22: provinces from 47.5% to 56.0% in 20
Page 23 and 24: the local level. Provincial governm
Page 25 and 26: asking the U.S. government to inter
Page 27 and 28: to abolish the National Security Co
Page 29 and 30: parties, the resulting plan gives e
Page 31 and 32: the novel idea to reserve quotas fo
Page 33 and 34: many of them in their teens, 38 who
Page 35 and 36: involvement in violence in Indian-c
Page 37: The righteous rage articulated by I
Page 40 and 41: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay diachr
Page 42 and 43: While Pakistani elites have time an
Page 44 and 45: f i g u r e 1 All political violenc
Page 46 and 47: f i g u r e 3 Communal violence in
Page 48 and 49: f i g u r e 5 Terrorist violence in
Page 50 and 51: Figure 1 depicts all political viol
Page 52 and 53: (Jaish-e-Mohammad, Harkat-ul-Jihadi
Page 54 and 55:
When the Soviet Union withdrew from
Page 56 and 57:
During this same period when Pakist
Page 58 and 59:
groups form the backbone of the TTP
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particularly from the army. The dir
Page 62 and 63:
Not only has Pakistan for the most
Page 64 and 65:
other relevant historical opinions
Page 66 and 67:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay argues
Page 68 and 69:
political accountability. The essay
Page 70 and 71:
Residents of the area note that Cha
Page 72 and 73:
modernizing middle-class nationalis
Page 74 and 75:
From Religious Education to Sectari
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During the past few years the mains
Page 78 and 79:
worker did not plan to vote for Imr
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Baluch (backed by the PPP) against
Page 82 and 83:
so oten compete. Teachers and their
Page 85 and 86:
the national bureau of asian resear
Page 87 and 88:
The trauma of partition in 1947 emb
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the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes.
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t a b l e 1 Bilateral trade between
Page 93 and 94:
Challenges in the Bilateral Relatio
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war of liberation in 1971, the Sovi
Page 97 and 98:
within India view the November 26 a
Page 99 and 100:
that such groups or individuals—t
Page 101 and 102:
political and strategic discourse,
Page 103 and 104:
project. 74 In November 2014, the s
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Diplomatic relations between China
Page 109 and 110:
in military equipment to Pakistan.
Page 111 and 112:
High-Level Diplomacy and Exchanges
Page 113 and 114:
September 2009, Chinese vice foreig
Page 115:
Islamic countries. Pakistan, Bangla
Page 118 and 119:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay examin
Page 120 and 121:
military cooperation with Pakistan.
Page 122 and 123:
Ironically, the quest for energy se
Page 124 and 125:
Iran is equally (if not more) worri
Page 126 and 127:
automatically draw in Iran as a par
Page 128 and 129:
acceptable than what might emerge i
Page 130 and 131:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay discus
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problems extend to the military, co
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parliament building. 10 During the
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and other regional countries. Yet i
Page 138 and 139:
ater Ghani’s outreach to Pakistan
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latter’s ability to regroup, resu
Page 142 and 143:
United States will succeed in stabi
Page 144 and 145:
But like many other diplomatic even
Page 146 and 147:
All of Afghanistan’s neighbors, a
Page 148 and 149:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay traces
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foreign funding, and policy choices
Page 152 and 153:
South Asia Terrorism Portal, in Pak
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people with an unstable polity, num
Page 156 and 157:
In recent years, however, there has
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dangerous repercussions for Pakista
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Page 163 and 164:
In an interview in 2006, Robert Gal
Page 165 and 166:
states. This or a similar network c
Page 167 and 168:
Intelligence (ISI) over the last th
Page 169 and 170:
would be its impact on the Iranian
Page 171 and 172:
The volatile security environment i
Page 173:
Page 176 and 177:
Civil Society Pakistan’s civil so
Page 178 and 179:
Civil-Military Relations The Pakist
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The majority of judges were also no
Page 182 and 183:
What is not in doubt, however, is t
Page 184:
Outlook Pakistan is a deeply troubl
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