pakistan’s

in July 2014 has created a situation with a strong incentive for Islamic mobilization. This dynamic
then manifested itself in the sudden rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the heart of
the Arab world in Iraq. Some see the struggle around the rise of ISIS as a proxy conflict between
Iran and Saudi Arabia, with allies divided along sectarian lines. The existing state boundaries
drawn in the atermath of World War I, which frequently grouped different religious sects under
the same political borders, are breaking down.
Islamic radicalism seems to have made inroads in Xinjiang in western China. A sudden attack
at night on March 1, 2014, in the Kunming railway station was a prelude to other attacks elsewhere
in China. President Xi Jinping’s inspection tour of Xinjiang in June 2014 was followed by further
attacks and a commitment from Beijing to use heavy force to counter terrorism. Meanwhile,
China’s confrontations with Japan and some Southeast Asian countries over disputed islands have
escalated to a point where tension is palpable. Many analysts are comparing the present state of
East Asia to the one that prevailed in Europe in 1914 when the world bungled into World War I. 35
By the end of 2014, NATO and the International Security Assistance Force had substantially
withdrawn from Afghanistan, and they may even end their presence entirely by 2016. 36 The limited
allied forces will not be able to deter efforts by the Taliban and al Qaeda in their various incarnations
in Pakistan and Afghanistan to gain control of Afghanistan. 37 The breakup of Afghanistan along
ethnic lines is thus a real possibility. Were this to happen, pressures on Pakistan, which has its own
ethnic fault lines, will become strong and could even lead to a doomsday scenario of the breakup
of a failing nuclear weapon state into two or more unviable states.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan-India relations continue as before in spite of recent leadership
changes in both countries and earlier pledges to resume confidence-building measures. 38 Indian
intelligence is seriously concerned that following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan the
surplus terrorists from that conflict may well be diverted east to continue their jihad in neighboring
countries. Meanwhile, ater a right-wing government led by Narendra Modi assumed office
in New Delhi in May 2014, border tensions intensified. Promise of the resumption of bilateral
confidence-building dialogue could not progress due to continued mistrust and differences, and
talks were called off.
A surprise visit by Prime Minister Modi to Lahore on December 25, 2015, to wish Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif well on his birthday, created goodwill and high expectations on both
sides. A schedule for a resumption of dialogue was being mutually worked out. Yet within a week,
four to six heavily armed terrorists from Pakistan attacked a leading military airbase close to the
international border at Pathankot. 39 Indian Air Force aircrat and assets were threatened but were
protected by alert security personnel. But this attack once again set back the resumption of talks.
Even with the best of intentions, this may well be the pattern of mutual relations for the future.
164
NBR
35 Jitsuo Tsuchiyama refers to books by Aaron Friedberg and Zbigniew Brzezinski, who have compared the situation now in East Asia to that
in Europe one hundred years ago. See Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, “Is East Asia Headed for War? Lessons from World War I,” Tokyo Foundation,
April 8, 2015, http://www.tokyofoundation.org/en/articles/2015/is-east-asia-headed-for-war.
36 Barack Obama, “Statement by the President on Afghanistan,” White House, Office of the Press Secretary, May 27, 2014, http://www.
whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/05/27/statement-president-afghanistan.
37 The situation in Iraq in summer 2014 is probably a more likely scenario, except that the Afghan National Security Forces may not be able
to hold on for any length of time. The critical factor is Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal. If Pakistan pursues the
objective of strategic depth, Afghanistan’s collapse may come even earlier.
38 Pakistan completed a democratic change of government in late 2013, while Indian national elections in April–May 2014 led to the swearing
in of a new government in New Delhi on May 22 of that year. In an unprecedented gesture from the new Indian prime minister, all heads of
the member states of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation were invited to the ceremony. A brief meeting between Modi
and Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif seemed to indicate the possibility of a new beginning.
39 For a brief description of the attack, see “Fresh Firing in Pathankot; IAF Using Attack Helicopters,” Hindu, January 2, 2016.
SPECIAL REPORT u FEBRUARY 2016