pakistan’s

In an interview in 2006, Robert Gallucci, a leading U.S. expert on arms control and disarmament,
stated that Pakistan is “the number one threat to the world…[I]f it all goes off—a nuclear bomb
in a U.S. or European city—I’m sure we will find ourselves looking in Pakistan’s direction.” 1
Ten years since these remarks, the situation in Pakistan has worsened. 2 The country’s internal
stability is weakening under the strain of ethnic and sectarian differences as well as poor economic
conditions. In 2014 the Fund for Peace ranked Pakistan tenth in its global analysis of “failing
states.” 3 Yet in contrast with other states on this list, Pakistan is a nuclear weapon state with the
world’s fastest-growing nuclear arsenal and effective delivery means, while also being a hotbed of
global terrorism. This is a unique combination. Given these conditions, nuclear proliferation from
Pakistan poses serious challenges to international and regional security, with major implications
for U.S. interests.
Nuclear proliferation is a term that describes the spread of nuclear weapons and
weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information to nations that are not recognized
as “nuclear weapon states” by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
Pakistan does not qualify as a nuclear weapon state under this definition and instead may be
defined as a “state with nuclear weapons.” 4 Beginning in 1974, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program
under A.Q. Khan evolved through the clandestine acquisition of nuclear material and technology
from around the world. Pakistan also later proliferated these to a number of other countries in
violation of its own laws and other states’ nonproliferation legal commitments.
This essay analyzes the threat of such proliferation from Pakistan. The first section examines
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program and the doctrine the country has adopted for nuclear weapons
use. The essay then assesses the dangers this poses to international security through three possible
scenarios. One is thet or acquisition of nuclear material by terrorist groups in Pakistan or affiliated
organizations in other countries. A second scenario is the deliberate illegal state-to-state transfer
of such a capability. Third, there is the possibility of a nuclear conflict with India. Following this
discussion, the essay examines the impact on international security, particularly in the worsening
geostrategic environment of the Middle East. Finally, the essay concludes with recommendations
for U.S. policy to counter this threat to the region.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Program and Policy for Use
Pakistan’s Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Pakistan is considered to have the fith-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, which includes
an estimated 120 nuclear weapons of low- to high-yield boosted fission devices. 5 It also possesses
1 Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark, Deception: Pakistan, the United States and the Global Nuclear Weapons Conspiracy (New Delhi:
Penguin Books, 2007), 449.
2 A lot of the material contained in this essay is drawn from six rounds of a trilateral nuclear strategic dialogue conducted by the author
while at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. The dialogue gathered senior military officials, diplomats, and experts from India,
Pakistan, and China and took place from 2008 to 2012 at various locations in Asia. I am grateful for the comments of the participants
and their insights, all of which cannot be quoted in full. This program was supported by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), based in
Washington, D.C. The reports of the conference have not been publicly released and hence are not available for attribution. The author takes
responsibility for their veracity.
3 See Fund for Peace, “Country Data and Trends: Pakistan,” 2014, http://ffp.statesindex.org/2014-pakistan.
4 A “nuclear weapon state” is a legal term used in the NPT to refer to nations that had manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other
nuclear explosive device prior to January 1, 1967. See art. 9, par. 3, of the NPT, http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPT.shtml.
5 Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris, “World Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Report,” Ploughshares Fund, August 2014, http://www.
ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report. Pakistan is shown to have 120 nuclear weapons and India 110 nuclear weapons.
PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION u BANERJEE
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