Digitalisation of the economy and its impact on labour markets —

<strong>Digitalisation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>economy</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>its</strong> <strong>impact</strong> on labour markets
— digital remote maintenance <strong>of</strong> machine tools (Trumpf AG);
— digital integration <strong>of</strong> logistics: RFID tracking <strong>of</strong> garments in warehouses
<strong>and</strong> retail stores (Inditex – Zara br<strong>and</strong>).
According to Roubini (2015), ‘in <strong>the</strong> years ahead, breakthroughs in robotics
<strong>and</strong> automation will boost productivity <strong>and</strong> efficiency, which will translate into
economic gains for manufacturers. This wave <strong>of</strong> development will also benefit
s<strong>of</strong>tware developers, engineers, research scientists o<strong>the</strong>r workers with <strong>the</strong> skills
<strong>and</strong> education necessary to operate in <strong>the</strong> brave new manufacturing era’.
While productivity gains are emphasised by all <strong>the</strong> authors referred to in this
study, <strong>the</strong>ir consequences in employment terms are characterised by ra<strong>the</strong>r
marked differences in approach. Several authors have a ra<strong>the</strong>r pessimistic
vision <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> consequences <strong>of</strong> this revolution on <strong>the</strong> labour market. Again
according to Roubini (2015), ‘The risk is that workers in high-skilled, bluecollar
manufacturing jobs will be displaced by machines before <strong>the</strong> dust settles
at <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Third Industrial Revolution. We may be heading toward a
future where factories consist <strong>of</strong> one highly skilled engineer running hundreds
<strong>of</strong> machines – with one worker left sweeping <strong>the</strong> floor… until that job is given
to an industrial-strength Roomba Robot.’
Ford is quite convinced that this is where <strong>the</strong> future lies, describing also <strong>the</strong>
phenomenon <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fshoring in which highly skilled pr<strong>of</strong>essional jobs (lawyer,
radiologist, tax expert, s<strong>of</strong>tware programmer, etc.) are increasingly relocated
to cheap-labour countries, for example India where <strong>the</strong>re are now tax experts
specialising in US tax law. Yet this does not apply to highly skilled jobs alone:
‘virtually any occupation that primarily involves manipulating information <strong>and</strong>
is not in some way anchored locally (…) is potentially at risk from <strong>of</strong>fshoring
in <strong>the</strong> relatively near future <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>n from full automation somewhat fur<strong>the</strong>r
out. Full automation is simply <strong>the</strong> logical next step’ (Ford 2015: 118).
Erik Brynjolfsson <strong>and</strong> Andrew McAfee (2011) also insist on <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>
acceleration <strong>of</strong> technologies which, in <strong>the</strong> coming years, will change <strong>the</strong> income
<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> jobs <strong>of</strong> millions <strong>of</strong> workers. ‘Computers (hardware, s<strong>of</strong>tware, <strong>and</strong>
networks) are only going to get more powerful <strong>and</strong> capable in <strong>the</strong> future, <strong>and</strong>
have an ever-bigger <strong>impact</strong> on jobs, skills, <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>economy</strong>. The root <strong>of</strong> our
problems is not that we’re in a Great Recession, or a Great Stagnation, but
ra<strong>the</strong>r that we are in <strong>the</strong> early throes <strong>of</strong> a Great Restructuring. Our technologies
are racing ahead but many <strong>of</strong> our skills <strong>and</strong> organizations are lagging behind.
So it’s urgent that we underst<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>se phenomena, discuss <strong>the</strong>ir implications,
<strong>and</strong> come up with strategies that allow human workers to race ahead with
machines instead <strong>of</strong> racing against <strong>the</strong>m’.
Viewed in a historical perspective, one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> questions at <strong>the</strong> heart <strong>of</strong> this
revolution is <strong>the</strong> extent to which it will be characterised by <strong>the</strong> creation or <strong>the</strong>
destruction <strong>of</strong> jobs. In <strong>the</strong> 19 th century English cotton mills <strong>the</strong> appearance <strong>of</strong>
machines was seen by workers as a threat to <strong>the</strong>ir jobs. This is why some <strong>of</strong>
<strong>the</strong>se workers – <strong>the</strong> Luddites – fought <strong>and</strong> destroyed <strong>the</strong> machines which, as
economists are generally agreed, in reality contributed to <strong>the</strong> creation <strong>of</strong>
WP 2016.02
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