Digitalisation of the economy and its impact on labour markets —

<strong>Digitalisation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>economy</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>its</strong> <strong>impact</strong> on labour markets
workers’ e-skills, use <strong>of</strong> internet, digital public services, etc.), <strong>the</strong> less <strong>its</strong> jobs
will be threatened by digitalisation. This applies to <strong>the</strong> Nordic Countries, <strong>the</strong>
Ne<strong>the</strong>rl<strong>and</strong>s, <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> United Kingdom. By contrast, <strong>the</strong> lower a country’s
position in <strong>the</strong> DESI, <strong>the</strong> more at risk <strong>its</strong> jobs will be (Romania, Bulgaria,
Greece, Croatia).
However, <strong>the</strong> response <strong>of</strong> researchers to <strong>the</strong>se studies is far from unanimous.
From some quarters come claims that <strong>the</strong>re is no reason to imagine such ‘horror
scenarios’. Such, at least, is <strong>the</strong> analysis from <strong>the</strong> Hans Böckler Foundation
(HBS 2015). Contesting Frey <strong>and</strong> Osborne’s calculations <strong>and</strong> on <strong>the</strong> basis, in
particular, <strong>of</strong> findings reported by researchers at <strong>the</strong> Zentrum für Europäische
Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) <strong>and</strong> by <strong>the</strong> University <strong>of</strong> Hohenheim, <strong>the</strong> HBS
maintains that, while machines will undoubtedly alter <strong>the</strong> nature <strong>of</strong> work in <strong>the</strong>
future, this does not necessarily mean <strong>the</strong> wholesale disappearance <strong>of</strong> jobs.
Though some tasks will indeed be very much subject to automation, this trend
will above all enable workers to devote <strong>the</strong>ir efforts to new tasks.
According to <strong>the</strong> ZEW, in Germany <strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> employees whose jobs
are under threat from automation is likely to be no more than 12%, far less
than forecast by Brueghel. Similarly, according to a study conducted by <strong>the</strong> job
search institute, German industry could lose 490,000 jobs between now <strong>and</strong>
2025, but is likely to see <strong>the</strong> appearance <strong>of</strong> 430,000 new ones. It is true that
<strong>the</strong> new jobs would require higher skills, so that <strong>the</strong> greatest risks are incurred
by <strong>the</strong> least skilled workers (HBS 2015). These studies relating to <strong>the</strong> situation
in Germany show at least that, in spite <strong>of</strong> relatively similar economic structures,
it is not possible to carry out for Europe a simple copy-paste <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> situation in
<strong>the</strong> United States.
But <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> Germany, <strong>the</strong> industrial driver <strong>of</strong> Europe <strong>and</strong> hence <strong>the</strong> main
victim <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ‘moral threat’ referred to by Commissioner Oettinger above, is
interesting on more than one count because this is probably <strong>the</strong> EU country
whose government has invested most in <strong>the</strong> new digital <strong>economy</strong>. This led, in
particular, to <strong>the</strong> ‘Industrie 4.0’ initiative, an important section <strong>of</strong> which, on
employment (‘Arbeiten 4.0’), was launched on 22 April 2015 by German social
affairs <strong>and</strong> employment minister Andrea Nahles (SPD) 19 . The minister
expresses a degree <strong>of</strong> ‘social voluntarism’ designed to accompany <strong>the</strong> digital
revolution, particularly by stressing <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> developing ‘Decent,
secure <strong>and</strong> health work; finding new ways to combine a high level <strong>of</strong>
employment with participation in work; taking seriously workers’ changed
individual preferences regarding <strong>the</strong>ir work <strong>and</strong> developing policies which
enshrine a life-phase approach; ensuring that fair wages <strong>and</strong> social security in
our social market <strong>economy</strong> also apply to new forms <strong>of</strong> work; finding good
solutions regarding initial <strong>and</strong> continuing training which enable us to shape
technological change <strong>and</strong> to help workers cope in a world <strong>of</strong> work characterised
by greater diversity, discontinuity <strong>and</strong> uncertainty; ensuring that companies
19. http://www.bmas.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE:PDF-Publikationen/arbeiten-4-0-
Green-paper.pdf?_blob=publicationFile
WP 2016.02
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