ANNUAL%20REPORT%202015%20eng
ANNUAL%20REPORT%202015%20eng
ANNUAL%20REPORT%202015%20eng
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Appendix I<br />
Criteria<br />
Commentary<br />
Revenue factors • The derivation of, or assumptions made regarding revenue factors<br />
including head grade, metal or commodity price(s) exchange rates,<br />
transportation and treatment charges, penalties, net smelter returns, etc.<br />
• The derivation of assumptions made of metal or commodity price(s), for<br />
the principal metals, minerals and co-products.<br />
• Shanxi Fenwei Energy Consulting Co Ltd (“Shanxi Fenwei”) completed an<br />
independent market study for UHG products and identified principal coking and<br />
thermal coal markets in Mongolia and China.<br />
• Based on the Shanxi Fenwei study and MMC’s assessment of the current market<br />
prices for hard coking coal, semi soft coking coal, middlings coal product (6,300<br />
kcal/kg nar) and thermal coal product (6,300 kcal/kg nar), long term (2021 –<br />
2025) real prices of USD$78/t, USD$56/t, USD$18/t and USD$18/t respectively<br />
have been assessed and used in the study.<br />
Market assessment • The demand, supply and stock situation for the particular commodity,<br />
consumption trends and factors likely to affect supply and demand into<br />
the future.<br />
• A customer and competitor analysis along with the identification of likely<br />
market windows for the product.<br />
• Price and volume forecasts and the basis for these forecasts.<br />
• For industrial minerals the customer specification, testing and<br />
acceptance requirements prior to a supply contract.<br />
• Shanxi Fenwei completed an independent market study for UHG and identified<br />
principal coking and thermal coal markets in Mongolia and China.<br />
Economic • The inputs to the economic analysis to produce the net present value<br />
(NPV) in the study, the source and confidence of these economic inputs<br />
including estimated inflation, discount rate, etc.<br />
• NPV ranges and sensitivity to variations in the significant assumptions<br />
and inputs. Price and volume forecasts and the basis for these forecasts.<br />
• The inputs to the economic analysis of UHG are the project derived capital and<br />
operating cost estimates outlined above. The source of the inputs is real and the<br />
confidence satisfactory. The economic modelling is in real terms and a range of<br />
discount factors between 8% and 12% have been used in assessing NPV.<br />
Annual Report 2015<br />
209