Hydrocarbon Vision 2030 (ஹைட்ரோகார்பன் தொலைநோக்கு ஆவணம் 2030)

However, by 2030, crude oil supply is likely to be at 5.1 MMTPA (considering firm production).
Therefore, there will be significant shortage of crude oil (of 10.7 MMTPA) if these refineries have to run
at 100% capacity. Hence, pipeline for imported crude transportation needs to be developed to
connect these refineries with ports elsewhere in the country. Besides, all petroleum products, except
for LPG, will be in surplus, which will necessitate their movement to possible demand centres within or
outside the country. Neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal could
be possible export destinations. The figure below plots details of upcoming refining capacity and
supply of crude from the region.
Figure 36: Refining capacity vis-à-vis crude oil production in Northeast India (MMTPA)
Source: ONGC, OIL, IOCL, NRL
As the figure above shows, after expansion of refining capacity in 2020-21 there will be a shortage of
around 8.4 MMTPA of crude oil, which will increase to 11.3 MMTPA in 2029-30.
7.2 Demand-supply assessment of POL products in Northeast India
Northeast India constitutes 7.9% of India’s area and 3.2% of the total population; yet it accounts for
only 1.9% of the country’s consumption of petroleum products, owing to lack of economic
developments compared with other parts of the country. The table below provides comparison of
petroleum products consumption in Northeast India vis-à-vis India.
Table 75: POL product consumption in the Northeast vis-à-vis India (MMTPA)
POL products 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
All-India consumption 113.2 120.7 128.9 133.6 137.8 141.0 148.1 157.1 158.4 165.0
(MMTPA)
NER consumption 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2
(MMTPA)
% of all-India 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%
consumption
NER population ~ 3.2%
NER area ~ 7.9 %
Source: PPAC, CRISIL Infrastructure Advisory Analysis
118