Hydrocarbon Vision 2030 (ஹைட்ரோகார்பன் தொலைநோக்கு ஆவணம் 2030)

7.3 Demand-supply assessment of natural gas
7.3.1 Existing consumption of natural gas in Northeast India
With the recent changes in the structure of the macro-economic factors and the economic boom in
India, the total primary energy requirement has been increasing at a rapid pace. Coal and oil have
been the dominant fuel in the primary energy basket; however, share of natural gas has gone up due
to increased availability from domestic production by private players and LNG imports. One way to
secure energy efficiently is through consumption of natural gas, which, being a reliable, cost effective
(in comparison to liquid fuels) and cleaner fuel, can also address the issue of increasing pollution and
global warming. However, due to lower production and increased demand for natural gas in India,
there is greater focus on imported LNG.
The table below provides existing demand of natural gas in Northeast India.
Table 104: Demand of natural gas in Northeast India (MMSCMD) in 2014-15
Particular 2014-15
CGD 0.68
Power 5.78
Refinery 1.1
Industry 2.11
Fertiliser 1.65
Total demand 11.2
Source: CRISIL Infrastructure Advisory Analysis
7.3.2 Future outlook - Gas demand estimation
Demand for natural gas has been assessed on the basis of consumer categories, which include:
City gas distribution
Power
Refineries
Petrochemicals
Industry
Fertiliser
7.3.2.1 Drivers of natural gas demand in Northeast India
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In India, the contribution of natural gas as a primary energy source is only at 9.3% compared to the
world average of 24%. Natural gas consumption in northeast India is much lower than the national
average. Therefore, there is room for growth even after taking into account that gas may not be able to
displace coal (attributable to fuel availability) in the power sector to the extent it may have in other
developed countries. Broadly, the following factors are expected to drive the increased consumption
of natural gas in India:
Economic growth and resultant growth in demand from end-users of gas
Overall macroeconomic conditions are likely to determine growth in demand for energy. Although
India has enjoyed relatively high growth rates since the early 1990s because of economic reforms, the
Northeast has not been able to capitalise on this growth momentum owning to a variety of issues. But,
in future, the region is likely to grow at a much faster rate due to policy initiatives both at the central as
well as state level. Moreover, an improvement in the law and order situation across the region can
push the larger development agenda and improve the region’s economy. The robust growth outlook
for the Indian economy and the resultant increase in end-user consumption of natural gas is expected
to drive the region’s natural gas market in future.
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Source: BP Statistics 2015
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