Hydrocarbon Vision 2030 (ஹைட்ரோகார்பன் தொலைநோக்கு ஆவணம் 2030)

Lower volatility in gas prices vis-à-vis alternate liquid fuels
Volatility in crude oil prices over the past few years has translated into price variability of alternate
liquid fuels such as petrol, LPG, naphtha, fuel oil, and low-sulphur heavy stock (LSHS). In
comparison, natural gas prices have been less volatile in India. Petroleum product prices are highly
correlated to the dynamics of the crude oil market, whereas natural gas prices (across sources) in
India have so far been set on a long-term basis, thereby making them less volatile.
Downstream regulator in place
The current regulatory mechanism provides an overarching framework to attract, enable, and sustain
the much-needed capital into the natural gas downstream sector. While protecting consumer interest,
prevailing downstream regulations also provide a level playing field to all infrastructure providers.
Environmental concerns
Globally, reduction in carbon emission has emerged as a key concern area. As natural gas is a
cleaner and environmental friendly fuel (lower carbon emissions per unit energy generated), it is
being promoted globally across key end-use segments, such as power generation, and also as
industrial and auto fuel. End-users of natural gas are entitled to certified emission reduction credits
and can, therefore, gain financially from such projects/transactions.
7.3.2.2 Demand from CGD sector
Gas demand from the city-gas distribution (CGD) sector has been estimated for existing cities and
new demand from other cities has been arrived at after duly considering the likely timeframe within
which cities/districts will receive pipeline connectivity. Existing CGD entities include cities that are
deemed authorised, i.e., AGCL and TNGCL. Gas demand from these entities was at 0.68 MMSCMD
in 2014-15 and is expected to reach 4.4 MMSCMD by 2029-30 assuming that phases 1, 2 and phase
3 of the gas pipeline are connected and spur lines within districts are implemented. Districts
considered in each phase are:
Phase - 1: Morigaon, Nagaon
Phase 2: Guwahati, Silchar (Cachar Hills), Aizawl, Imphal, Kamrup, Shillong, Karimganj,
Hailakandi, Goalpara, Bongaigaon
Phase 3: Bongaigaon, Dhubri, Kokrajhar
The following assumptions have been considered for estimating CGD demand:
Each family consists of five members and consumption per family is 0.5 SCM gas per annum
Maximum conversion of 65-70% has been considered for all categories (domestic, commercial,
CNG and industrial).
Implementation has been considered in phases in all categories.
Discount of 50% for CNG consumption and 80% for industrial consumption have been
considered as per for all-India pattern for CNG and PNG.
The demand from CGDs is given below.
Table 105: Projected demand from CGD sector (MMSCMD)
CGD entity 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24 2025-26 2027-28 2029-30
TNGCL 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.15
AGCL 0.62 0.68 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.81
Future CGD 0.61 1.06 1.51 2.04 2.42 2.70 3.20 3.43
Total demand 1.31 1.82 2.33 2.90 3.33 3.63 4.15 4.40
Source: CRISIL Infrastructure Advisory Analysis
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