GSLP-Liberals-Manifesto-2019

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ECONOMIC PLAN THE POST BREXIT NATIONAL ECONOMIC PLAN Gibraltar joined the EEC in 1973 with the United Kingdom. Gibraltarians have been Citizens of the EU since 1973 and we will cease to be EU Citizens on the 31st October 2019 unless the UK and EU agree to extend the departure beyond this date. The post Brexit National Economic Plan assumes that this will not happen and that there will not be a withdrawal agreement in place for 1st November or a transition period starting on this date. HARD/NO-DEAL BREXIT Gibraltar would have no special relationship with the EU after 31st October but would be able to trade with the EU as a third country. Moreover, as a result of the work the GSLP Liberals have done in the past three years, the current relationship with UK, that provides EU member rights for Gibraltar in UK and the UK in Gibraltar will continue after the 1st November, representing no change in the reciprocal relationship from what it has developed into since 1973. This could turn out to be hugely beneficial for Gibraltar. This post Brexit National Economic Plan is a 4-year plan to restructure the economy and deal with a hard Brexit scenario. In the unlikely event that there is a withdrawal agreement by 31st October and a transition period after, UK and Gibraltar will continue to have EU market access but will no longer have MEP’s or be involved in the EU Commission. This means that the UK would have no political influence during the transition. During the transition the UK would be negotiating its new relationship with the EU for after the end of the transition period. The Post Brexit National Economic Plan will still be implemented during the transition period. Any agreement with the UK for the new relationship with the EU will be subject to unanimity and therefore the approval of Spain before it will apply to Gibraltar. Our planning assumption is that it is likely that Spain would demand concessions in exchange for such approval that a GSLP Liberal Government of Gibraltar would not agree to. The Post Brexit National Economic Plan therefore prudently assumes that if we are not out of the EU on 1st November this year we will be out at the close of the transition period in January 2021. We consider that departure from the EU should be considered to be similar to the position the 1988 GSLP Government faced, which necessitated a change from an MOD dependent economy to a Private Sector open trading economy, the foundations for which were created between 1988 and 1992 and delivered between 1992 and 1996. This set out to internationalise the economy in order to make Gibraltar self-sufficient and economically independent. We did this by replacing MOD income with income from other activities, increasing efficiency, the rate of economic growth and maximising the use of land and manpower to drive the growth of the economy and the growth of Public Finances. The 1988 GSLP budget put in place the ‘Golden Rule’ of not borrowing for recurrent expenditure and limiting debt finance for capital projects. This is also the basis of the post Brexit National Economic Plan. The background to the economic growth targets is the assumption that both UK and the EU will be entering into a recession, when in consecutive quarters the economies will shrink instead of growing following the UK’s departure from the EU on the 31st October 2019. This will also reflect the slowdown in the global economy due to a variety of factors including the mutual imposition of additional tariffs on each others imports by the US and the Peoples Republic of China. In this context of very low, zero or negative changes in the GDP of other nations, Gibraltar’s target for its National Income will be 15% over the 4 years 2019/20 to 2023/24. In 2007 we predicted the GDP would be £800 million and grow to £1,200 million by 2012. The results published in 2013 showed that the 2008 GDP was £806 million and by 2012 it was £1,201 million. We got it right. In 2011 we projected an increase to £1.8 million by 2016 and it reached £1.794 million. In 2015 we set a GDP target for 2019/20 of £2.4bn as a minimum, with a possible level of £2.5bn. It is expected that the result for 2019/20 will be of the order of £2.57bn. This means we have exceeded our prediction. If the final GDP figure for 2019/20 reaches £2.6b then the target for growth would be £390m over the next 4 years. This will mean that GDP will reach just under £3bn in 2023/24 when the next general election will be due. The minimum rate of growth will be lower in the first 2 years (say 2.5% in 2020/21 and 2021/22) and double that in the second part of the lifetime of the next Parliament (say 5% in 2022/23 and 2023/24). This growth would be set against almost zero growth or contraction in the rest of Europe and most of the large economies of the rest of the world. THE LABOUR MARKET The workforce has grown very substantially since 2011/12 from 22,247 to 29,995. Much of this growth in the private sector has been on incomes at the National Minimum Wage or close to it. At this level, very little or no income tax is paid. This means that the GDP growth generated by such wages has not had a positive impact on Government revenue, therefore limiting the contribution from this source to fund higher levels of recurrent spending. The sustainability of the cost of the public sector as a whole depends on increasing Government revenue since the Golden Rule prohibits recurrent deficits financed by increased borrowing, as is the case with the UK and EU. The future post Brexit economy cannot be an ever-growing, labour intensive, low wage economy. The post Brexit situation will mean that it will be possible for Government deliver better control over the labour market in terms of new entrants in order to fine tune the objective of improving output per worker and promoting efficiency in the use of resources. This was the main driver of economic self-sufficiency in the 1988 to 1996 economic restructure. Efficient use of 44 ...aspire to the best Gibraltar
the two basic resources, namely our land and manpower, is the best way to provide a higher standard of living. The 2018 employment survey report shows the number of jobs in Gibraltar at just under 30,000. The 2019 report in respect of this month, which will be available around April 2020, is likely to show an increase of around 2,000. This figure of 32,000 will be the target for the next 4 years and the 15% increase in National Income the result of higher value output and not just higher numbers. All the indications in the global economy are that the next economic revolution will be brought about by greater use of artificial intelligence and the replacement of manpower by machinery. Gibraltar cannot afford to be left out of the 4th Economic Revolution, if it is to protect the quality of life and be able to maintain the provision of health, housing and education and all the other areas that need to be financed. In order to provide the resources for this and at the same time meet the continuing demand for affordable housing, the Post Brexit National Economic Plan will deliver a completely integrated strategy. The proposals in the Post-Brexit National Economic Plan sets out the transformation of Gibraltar’s economy into higher value jobs and economic activity. It will also provide a dynamic, attractive and enhanced living environment for our citizens, with the provision of the following projects; • Land reclamation projects; • Value-adding Infrastructure; • New Logistics / High-tech Park; • Solar Park; • New high-value Economic Residency Scheme; • New Affordable Housing Schemes; • New Elderly Care Homes; • Private & commercial vehicle parking.; • Storage units for families; and • Any other suitable projects; LAND RECLAMATION The design and build of a land reclamation project totalling approximately 150,000 m2. As in 1988, this will lead to an increase in the land bank. This project will utilize the surplus landfill presently stored on the site of the Eastside Reclamation which may not be used for the Victoria Keys project. LOGISTICS/HIGH-TECH PARK The creation of a new Logistics / High-Tech Park with a minimum area of approx. 75,000 m2 will provide the Government of Gibraltar and the Private Sector the ability to meet existing requirements for increased warehousing and storage, to decant and unlock the monetary and utilization value of existing Crown Lands, resulting in a significantly better living environment, enhanced commercial productivity and efficiency, attracting new business and creating employment, improving transport and traffic infrastructure efficiency. The warehousing and storage capacity could become very necessary in the event that there are delays in the supply lines from the UK post Brexit and larger quantities are needed to be delivered and stored in Gibraltar. The new Logistics / High-tech Park will also provide parking for a minimum of 2500 commercial vehicles for out of working hours parking, provide new warehouses with the facility to unload articulated lorries straight into the company’s warehouse, unloading in a public area away from their warehouses and enabling local suppliers to be able to increase efficiency, bulk stock and reduce cost. For the first time in Gibraltar it will also provide ample secure storage facilities for private individuals to hire on a monthly basis. SOLAR PARK We propose to design and build a Solar Park covering an area of approximately 20,000 m2 which will provide approx. 3.5 Mega Watts of power, amounting to approximately 10% of Gibraltar’s total electrical power requirements. This will significantly enable the Government of Gibraltar to meet its target for provision of electrical power from clean and sustainable sources. MODERN MODULAR CONSTRUCTION There is a growing demand in the UK and European countries for the provision of off-site fabrication, as it is increasingly becoming the trend in sustainable modern building methodology. As we gear up to leave the EU, we are adopting the same approach as the UK to boost our productivity and end our over-reliance on low-skilled labour from overseas. Modern Modular Construction offers new avenues to learn and develop the ...aspire to the best Gibraltar 45
Page 1 and 2: GSLP Liberals Manifesto 2019 ...asp
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTS PERSONAL MESSAGE FROM FABI
Page 5 and 6: Personal message from Fabian Picard
Page 7 and 8: Our credentials are clear. We have
Page 9 and 10: this manifesto, a reality because i
Page 11 and 12: Personal message from Joseph Garcia
Page 13 and 14: ...progress does not just happen by
Page 15 and 16: let’s talk about...Fabian FABIAN
Page 17 and 18: new Town Planning Act requires the
Page 19 and 20: distortions and altered differentia
Page 21 and 22: (WET) “We will ensure that Gibdoc
Page 23 and 24: programme will also provide a basis
Page 25 and 26: LOCATION SHOOTING We will continue
Page 27 and 28: ...aspire to the best Gibraltar 27
Page 29 and 30: let’s talk about...Joseph JOSEPH
Page 31 and 32: This has included detailed informat
Page 33 and 34: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THE CONDUCT
Page 35 and 36: Withdrawal Treaty and was included
Page 37 and 38: to develop and expand the role of G
Page 39 and 40: Gibraltar exit the European Union.
Page 41 and 42: GRAND BATTERY HOUSE We will work wi
Page 43: let’s talk about....Sir Joe JOE B
Page 47 and 48: After 1996, under a GSD Government,
Page 49 and 50: and adaptation for re-exporting. Al
Page 51 and 52: let’s talk about...Paul PAUL BALB
Page 53 and 54: Moorish Castle/Tankerville Car Park
Page 55 and 56: have continued the policy of chargi
Page 57 and 58: The GSLP Liberals will continue to
Page 59 and 60: vote for the GSLP Liberals 7 Vote f
Page 61 and 62: let’s talk about...John JOHN CORT
Page 63 and 64: • taking policy measures to impro
Page 65 and 66: ALL BEACHES We will improve the lif
Page 67 and 68: The Mount ...an adventure park for
Page 69 and 70: ...and fun zones for all ...aspire
Page 71 and 72: Walk the Wall
Page 74 and 75: A beautiful new green space in the
Page 77 and 78: Turn parking into park...just like
Page 79 and 80: THE GIBRALTAR NATIONAL PARKS ACT In
Page 81 and 82: OLD DIESEL PLANTS DECOMMISSIONED By
Page 84 and 85: 84 ...aspire to the best Gibraltar
Page 90 and 91: end and low-cost, affordable housin
Page 94 and 95:
uilt in this period will be St Jose
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96 ...aspire to the best Gibraltar
Page 98 and 99:
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fact, seeking medical care but simp
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In government, we embedded our long
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modern facility following the addit
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extend the ability of dementia pati
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THE CARE AGENCY - PLEDGES We are wh
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ecent FATF recommendations require
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New training facilities for the GFR
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New facilities at the University of
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Investing in the Upper Rock and tou
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for tourism generally and not just
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labour market, the Government will
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World class sports facilities, at l
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Cultural events like never before i
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THE ARTS ADVISORY COUNCIL We will s
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let’s talk about...Samantha SAMAN
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BEACH VIEW TERRACES & MONS CALPE ME
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New children’s play area at Willi
Page 144 and 145:
RGP, the DPP and the Judiciary. We
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EQUALITY Our Government has been a
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vote for the GSLP Liberals 7 Vote f
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GSLP-Liberals-Manifesto-2019

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