Nord Stream: Not Just a Pipeline

Nord Stream: Not Just a Pipeline 3
Chapter 3 is an analysis of the arguments put forward by proponents of
the project, primarily the Nord Stream consortium, Germany, and Russia.
First, the official story will be presented, i.e. that this is a European project
providing energy security for the EU (3.1). Then an alternative
explanation is offered, namely that Germany needs gas and that the
European focus is only a way to legitimise the project (3.2). Finally, a
more historical and theoretical argument, often pushed forward by
Germany, will be assessed, namely that the EU-Russian relationship may
benefit from the interdependence resulting from pipelines (3.3).
Chapter 4 is an analysis of the view that Nord Stream, from an energy
security point of view, divides Europe and strengthens Russia’s leverage
on the bypassed states. It will first present the main sources of concern,
e.g. why an onshore solution through the Baltic States and Poland has not
been presented as an alternative to the offshore plan (4.1). Then, Russia’s
reliability as an energy supplier will be analysed from the point of view
of the Baltic States. It will show that since the dissolution of the Soviet
Union, Russian energy interruptions have largely occurred in the post-
Soviet territory; therefore, it will be discussed whether one can talk of a
neo-imperial Russian energy (foreign) policy, and, in the extension of
this, how Nord Stream could represent a threat to the Baltic States (4.2).
Finally, it will be argued that regardless of Moscow’s foreign policy
intentions, which are difficult to prove, the most serious threat to these
states’ energy security is that Russia in the near future may not be able to
produce enough gas to cover all of its export commitments, and this
would be a bigger threat to small gas markets than to large ones like that
of Germany (4.3).
Chapter 5 is an analysis of the military-strategic concerns that have been
raised about Nord Stream. It will first explain how and when military
issues became relevant in the Swedish debate (5.1), followed by a brief
comparison of the Swedish, Finnish and Estonian debates about the
pipeline (5.2). Finally, it will offer both a historical and a geopolitical explanation
as to why the Swedes and Estonians were openly worried about
military-strategic aspects of Nord Stream when the Finns were not (5.3).
Chapter 6 provides a discussion of the environmental concerns regarding
Nord Stream that have been shared by most of the littoral states. First, it
will explain what is special about the Baltic Sea from an ecological
viewpoint, and what the possible impact of Nord Stream may be
according to the pipeline critics (6.1). In light of other similar projects,
such as the Langeled pipeline in the North Sea, a discussion will follow
of whether the environmental arguments have been exaggerated, and
whether it is fair to draw the North Sea analogy in the first place (6.2).
Finally, it will be shown that foreign policy decisions regarding Nord
Stream may have been significantly affected by domestic political
disputes in some of the littoral states, and that this may be very difficult
to discern if one only looks at the official statements and decisions (6.3).
Since the analysis has been thematically structured, the conclusion (7.0)
will, for the sake of clarity, recapitulate the main findings from a more
state-based-perspective.