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II-E-1
Part II
GENERAL PLANNING ASPECTS (GEN) — FASID
FORECASTS
Traffic forecasts in the AFI region
1. Using the methodology described in the Basic ANP,
traffic forecasts for the major route groups for 1998–2012
have been developed. The forecasts developed by other
organizations are also utilized as appropriate.
2. The historical trends in load factors and average seats
for the areas of routing concerned as well as expectations of
future load factors and trends in average seats will be
developed by the AFI Traffic Forecasting Task Force (TF/TF)
and included in this part in the future.
3. The assumptions to be developed by the AFI TF/TF
for load factors, average seat capacity increases and
consequent growth rates for aircraft movements will also be
included in this part in the future.
4. The traffic forecasts developed for the period
1998–2012 for each of the areas of routing are described in
Tables II-11 and 12.
5. The following paragraphs provide data extracted
from the traffic forecast study done by IATA in 2000 for the
AFI Planning Implementation Regional Group (APIRG).
Average aircraft size
6. The average number of seats per flight on scheduled
services to, from and within Africa was stable between 1994
and 1996, but showed a significant increase in 1997:
Year
Average seats per flight
1994 117.5
1995 118.5
1996 117.8
1997 122
Source: OAG data
7. Globally, average fleet size (the number of aircraft in
an airline’s fleet as opposed to average number of seats per
flight) is expected to increase by around 0.3 per cent per annum
over the next 20 years.* Having reviewed current orders for jet
aircraft placed by African airlines, growth in average fleet size
was set to increase at an average annual rate of 0.2 per cent
lower than the global forecast rate. Taking into account fleet
retirements, which tend to be the older and, on average, smaller
aircraft, it is expected that average fleet size for carriers based
in Africa will increase by just over 0.2 per cent per annum.
8. Non-African airlines provided a larger share of seat
capacity to and from Africa. These carriers are expected to
have a higher increase in average fleet size than the global
average. Accordingly, the overall average annual growth in
fleet size for the forecast was assumed to be 0.3 per cent.
9. However, this percentage was not applied across the
board. Airlines usually want to offer additional flights rather
than larger aircraft, as passengers prefer the flexibility offered
by more frequent flights. On most long-haul routes, airlines
will tend to increase frequency to at least daily service before
using larger aircraft. On short-haul routes, generally more
frequent service is required, although many short- and
medium-haul routes within Africa are not yet served by daily
flights.
10. Therefore, on routes to, from and within Africa with
fewer than two flights per week, no increase in average
aircraft size was assumed. This assumed that additional
demand would be met by increased frequencies. This
threshold of two flights per week was increased to three
flights per week from 2002 onwards, and to four flights per
week from 2007 onwards.
11. For flights overflying Africa, average frequencies
tended to be much higher, and the daily flights threshold was
used for these routes.
*Boeing Current Market Outlook 1998