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II-E-2
12. It was assumed that those routes forecast to achieve
strong growth would require larger than average growth in
average aircraft size. In those instances, a sliding scale was
introduced. There were some routes which anticipated decline
(usually for just one or two years); for those routes no
increase in aircraft size was assumed. Small growth routes had
an additional 0.1 per cent increase. This amounts to an
additional 2 per cent increase for those (few) routes that were
forecast to grow by more than 50 per cent in a year. All these
adjustments were made on an annual basis.
13. The net effect of these adjustments was to
redistribute average aircraft size growth over the various
routes. This impacted the number of flights forecast to operate
within each individual FIR. The average increase following
the adjustments described above fluctuated between 0.2 and
0.3 per cent for each forecast year.
14. Scheduled routes between Europe and the Canary
Islands are currently operated at high frequencies. They are
also flown from increasingly slot-congested airports such as
Madrid and Lisbon. It was assumed that average aircraft size
would grow by 1 per cent per annum on these routes, adjusted
upwards for high growth. The resulting combined average
increase in aircraft size was between 1.2 and 1.5 per cent per
annum.
Passenger load factors
15. Passenger load factors, resulting from the optimum
match of market price with demand (yield management),
provides airline management with the means to influence the
number of flights. The long-term trend for IATA member
airlines is showing a gradual increase in average passenger
load factor, but this is influenced by cyclical pressures. It was
assumed in the forecast that for the period 1998–1999,
average passenger load factor would decrease by 1 percentage
point, and for the period 2001–2002, it would increase again
by 1 percentage point. Beyond 2002 it was assumed that
passenger load factors would remain unchanged.
Forecasts by the International Air
Transport Association (IATA)
16. The following aircraft movement forecasts were
based on the annual Passenger Traffic Forecast produced by
IATA. The Passenger Traffic Forecast was based on the
collective opinion of some 80 airlines, other aviation
organizations and IATA experts. Data was collected to
establish base year passenger traffic (1997) between States,
AFI FASID
and forecast growth rates for the next five years (1998–2002),
and average annual growth rates for the years 2002 and 2012.
The forecasts contain State to region passenger forecasts, and
various other aggregates and analyses.
17. Tables II-1 to II-3 detail results for the movement
forecast for flights to, from and within Africa for the period
1998-2012. Table II-1 details the scheduled movements
forecast. As well as the movement forecast for traffic to, from
and within Africa, this table includes details of the two major
scheduled traffic flows which overfly Africa, Europe to the
Canary Islands, and Europe to South America. Table II-2
details charter movements from Western Europe to Africa and
overflying traffic to and from the Canary Islands. Table II-3
shows details of all commercial flight movements to, from and
within Africa including the overflying traffic from Europe to
the Canary Islands and South America.
18. It is expected that by 2012 there will be nearly
1.7 million commercial movements in AFI airspace (including
overflying traffic). Around 62 per cent of all charter flights
through AFI airspace in 1998 were to the Canary Islands from
Western Europe. A further 30 per cent of all charter flights
were to North African States such as Egypt, Tunisia and
Morocco. Forecast growth rates for charter movements are
higher than those shown for scheduled flights to, from and
within the AFI region. This difference is largely due to the
nature of the charter market, which allows more flights to be
flown at off-peak times, and to the high levels of traffic
between the particular State pairs. Figure II-1 details the
number of domestic and international scheduled flights.
Following significant one-off growth for international traffic
in 1997, the growth pattern for international and domestic
traffic thereafter is quite similar. The annual growth
percentages vary between 2 and 5 per cent for both international
and domestic traffic, confirmed in Figure II-2.
19. Table II-4 details the aircraft movements forecast by
different regions — either within Africa (including domestic
traffic), or between Africa and the main world regions. Traffic
within Africa accounts for over half of the total movements by
2012. The most important external region is Europe, which is
dominated by traffic between North Africa and Europe, and
to a lesser extent, between South Africa and Europe.
20. The growth percentages do not differ significantly
between regions. The smaller regions (including Asia, the
Americas and Australia) have higher growth expectations,
confirmed in Table II-5. Traffic within Africa has moderate
growth expectations, while the Middle East and European
regions are below or around the average. The largest growth
is expected on routes between Western Europe and the Canary