scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010 SCOSTEP Symposium 2010 The solar and geomagnetic activity influence on long-term change of troposphere characteristics Molodykh Sergey , Zherebtsov Gely , Kovalenko Vladimir Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS Mechanisms of solar activity effects on weather and climate have been discussed. Authors proposed a physical mechanism of solar activity effects on climatic characteristics and the atmospheric circulation through the atmospheric electricity. A model of the solar activity effect on climatic characteristics of the Earth’s troposphere was elaborated on the basis of the mechanism under consideration. The model key concept is the heliogeophysical disturbance effect on the Earth climatic system’s parameters, which influence energy flux going from the Earth to space in high-latitude areas. According to our model, when the solar activity increases, radiation cooling of high-latitude regions decreases, thermobaric field restructures, average meridian gradient of temperature between polar and equatorial regions decreases, defining the atmospheric circulation. The energy outflow from low latitude regions falls as a result of the decrease of meridional temperature gradient; it results in the temperature increase at middle and low latitude. In the framework of the model considered, the analysis results are presented and discussed of regularities of variations in geomagnetic activity and troposphere thermobaric characteristics for 1900–2007. It was shown that observable long-term changes in troposphere characteristics are generally caused by changes in the underlying surface. It can be explained by the fact that the accumulation of individual heliogeophysical disturbance effects occurs in the underlying surface (mainly in the ocean). The continuous increase of the Earth climatic system heat content has been observed from 1910 till now. Under the model, we made analysis of regularities, which underlie variations of geomagnetic activity and troposphere thermobaric characteristics. These results and changes of the global circulation in the atmosphere and ocean allow the conclusion that the warming observed in the 20 th century can be mostly explained by variations of the solar activity level. Scenario for long-term changes of physical processes in the Earth atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean is presented on the basis of the model of the solar activity effect on the troposphere circulation and thermobaric characteristics.
STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010 SCOSTEP Symposium 2010 Long-Term Changes in Sunspot Activity, Occurrence of Grand Minima and Their Future Tendencies Mordvinov Alexander 1 , Kramynin Anatoly 2 1 Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2 Ussuriisk Astrophysical Observatory Long-term changes in magnetic activity of the Sun were studied in terms of the empirical mode decomposition that revealed their essential modes. Occurrence of the grand minima was also studied in their relation to long-term changes in sunspot activity throughout the past 11000 years. Characteristic timescales of long-term changes in solar activity manifest themselves in the occurrence of grand minima. A quantitative criterion has been defined to identify epochs of grand minima. This criterion reveals the important role of secular and bicentennial activity variations in the occurrence of grand minima and compares their amplitudes with the current activity level that is variable on a millennial timescale. We have revealed specific patterns in the magnetic activity between successive grand minima which tend to recur approximately every 2300 years but occasionally alternate with irregular changes. Such intermittent activity behaviour indicates a low dimensional chaos in the solar dynamo due to the interplay of its dominant modes. The analysis showed that in order to forecast activity level in forthcoming cycles, one should take into account long-term changes in sunspot activity on a ~2300-yr timescale. The regularities revealed suggest solar activity decrease in the foreseeable future.
Page 1 and 2:
SCOSTEP 2010 (STP12) Berlin, 12 - 1
Page 3 and 4:
STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 Jul
Page 5 and 6:
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112: STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 Jul
Page 161: STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 Jul
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
Page 241 and 242:
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
Page 253 and 254:
Page 255 and 256:
Page 257 and 258:
Page 259 and 260:
Page 261 and 262:
Page 263 and 264:
Page 265 and 266:
Page 267 and 268:
show all

scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?