scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

STP12 Abstracts
Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010
SCOSTEP Symposium 2010
Dynamo Model Based Solar Cycle Predictions
Nandy Dibyendu
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Kolkata
Predicting the amplitude of future sunspot cycles is important for assessing it’s forcing on planetary
atmospheres, including climate and mitigating the adverse effect of space weather on our technologies
based in space and here on Earth. The origin of the sunspot cycle and its fluctuations is governed by a
magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism in the solar interior. Ultimately therefore, physics based
predictions of the solar cycle can only be achieved if we understand the processes that contribute to
this dynamo mechanism. Such dynamo based predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 has however
generated completely different results (from very high to very low predictions). Moreover, the NOAA-
NASA international solar cycle prediction panel charged with coming up with a forecast failed to
arrive at a consensus early on, and later revised its prediction for Solar Cycle 24. In this talk, based
upon some recent work, I will argue that we are just beginning to understand the interplay between
different processes that determine the physics of solar cycle prediction. I will also present results that
may help discriminate between the different (physics based) solar cycle predictions, and which may
eventually lead towards a more physically well-founded forecast for the upcoming Solar Cycle 24