scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

STP12 Abstracts
Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010
SCOSTEP Symposium 2010
Using observations of subsurface helicity to predict flare occurrence
Reinard Alysha 1 , Henthorn Justin 2 , Komm Rudi 3 , Hill Frank 3
1 University of Colorado/NOAA-SWPC, 2 Ohio University, 3 National Solar Observatory
Solar flares are responsible for a number of hazardous effects on the earth
such as disabling high-frequency radio communications, interfering with GPS
measurements, and disrupting satellites. However, forecasting flare
occurrence has been very difficult. One possible means for predicting flare
occurence lies in helioseismology, i.e. analysis of the region below the
active region for signs of an impending flare. Time series helioseismic data
collected by the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) has been analyzed
for a subset of active regions that produce large flares and a subset with
very high magnetic field strength that produce no flares. A predictive
parameter has been developed and analyzed using discriminant analysis as well
as traditional forecasting tools such as the Heidke skill score. Preliminary
results indicate this parameter, combined with surface magnetic field measurements,
predicts active region flaring probability with a higher success rate than any currently
used method.