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STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010 SCOSTEP Symposium 2010 Topside ionosphere plasma bubbles: characteristic times of evolution and decay processes Sidorova Larisa 1 , Filippov Sergey 2 1 Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation , IZMIRAN, 2 Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere aan Radiowave Propagation, IZMIRAN There are some questions about the survival possibilities of plasma bubbles at the altitudes of the upper topside ionosphere (1000 km and more). The study deals with the evaluation of life time of the plasma bubbles, seen as He + density depletions in the topside ionosphere. He + density depletions (or subtroughs) are usually observed during a high solar activity at the topside ionospheric altitudes (~1000 km) deeply inside the plasmasphere (L~1.3-3). They are considered as originating from equatorial plasma bubbles phenomena or as possible fossil bubble signatures. The estimation of the characteristic times of a life, diffusion and vertical drift transport of helium ions (He + ) at the topside ionosphere heights of the low-/mid-latitude region was made. It is suggested, that the plasma bubbles are produced by Rayleigh-Taylor instability at the bottomside of ionosphere and transported up to the topside ionosphere/plasmasphere. It takes about 3-4 hours for plasma bubbles to reach the topside ionosphere altitudes. It is revealed, that the diffusion transport process is the fastest one (some minutes). Since the ionosphere plasma is magnetized plasma at the topside ionosphere heights, the diffusion processes are field-aligned. Plasma bubbles spread (due to diffusion processes) along the magnetic tubes. Their spreading becomes more and more significant in process of their uplifting. So extended bubbles look like “banana” (or tilted “aneurysm”) with the extremities reaching the ionosphere heights in both the hemispheres. This scheme is also correct if the separate components are under considerations, namely He + . Also it is well known that the magnetic tube, partially “devastated” by a plasma bubble, is replenished extremely slowly. The tube replenishment time is proportionally L 4 (for example, Badin, JATP, 1994). It takes ~10 hours for refilling the tube (L=2, ~45ºINVLAT), partially "devastated" or depleted by plasma bubble. It was concluded, that, if some plasma bubbles can reach the topside and plasmashere heights, they can exist here (may be as “dead” bubbles) during some hours. It was also concluded, that there is enough time to register the plasma bubbles at the topside ionosphere heights.
STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010 SCOSTEP Symposium 2010 The solar cycle 24 peak Silbergleit Virginia FIUBA-CONICET By considering the technique of Gumbel’s first asymptotic distribution it is estimated the maximum solar activity for the next solar cycle. A maximum value not smaller than 68.4 and not greater than 187.4 monthly mean sunspots is predicted. Only a small number of sunspot predictions for solar cycle 24 peak are out of this interval. According to these values the solar cycle 24 could be smaller or higher than the prior one but not more than a 56% percent The interest to study the sun's cycles is based on the possibility to protect our environment, technological systems and human activity affected by solar aggressions.
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