scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

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STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010 SCOSTEP Symposium 2010 Analysis of Solar Flare Activity from Empirical Time Series of Soft X-ray Solar Emission Stanislavsky Aleksander 1 , Burnecki Krzysztof 2 , Magdziarz Marcin 2 , Weron Aleksander 2 , Weron Karina 3 1 2 3 Institute of Radio Astronomy, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Institute of Physics, Wroclaw University of Technology A time series of soft X-ray emission observed on 1974-2007 years (GOES) is analyzed. We demonstrate how self-similar models driven by Levy stable noise can be useful for modeling X-ray solar data. In the periods of high solar activity 1977-1981, 1988-1992, 1999-2003 the energy statistics of soft X-ray solar flares for class M and C is well described by a FARIMA time series with Pareto innovations. The model is characterized by two effects. The first creates a random number of strong bursts on a background, and the second forms their persistence between each other.Their parameters are statistically stable enough during the periods. We suggest a statistical model for predicting the flare energy statistics.
STP12 Abstracts Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010 SCOSTEP Symposium 2010 Global variability of mean age of stratospheric air from MIPAS observations since 2002 Stiller Gabriele 1 , Von Clarmann Thomas 1 , Glatthor Norbert 1 , Funke Bernd 2 , Linden Andrea 1 , Grabowski Udo 1 , Hoepfner Michael 1 , Kellmann Sylvia 1 , Kiefer Michael 1 , Lopez-Puertas Manuel 2 , Wiegele Andreas 1 , Versick Stefan 1 1 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (KIT - IMK- ASF), 2 Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (IAA), CSIC, Granada, Spain MIPAS provides spectral information on the atmospheric trace constituent SF6. SF6 is produced purely anthropogenically, and has a pronounced trend in the troposphere of about 0.2 pptv/year (about 3%/year). Since its only atmospheric sink is in the mesosphere, it can be used to determine the so-called stratospheric mean age of air, i.e. the time an air parcel needs to travel from the tropopause to a certain position in the stratosphere. This is a quantity under vivid discussion currently, since many climate chemistry models predict an intensification of the Brewer-Dobson circulation due to climate change. This would lead to reduced mean age of air in the stratosphere and impact the stratospheric chemical composition, which would, in turn, provide feedback on climate change and impact the recovery of the ozone hole. SF6 and age-of-air global distributions for the full-spectral-resolution period of MIPAS (September 2002 to March 2004) have already been published (Stiller et al., ACP, 2008). Here we present global distributions of SF6 for the whole mission lifetime of MIPAS/Envisat (2002 to present) and derive global distributions of mean age of stratospheric air from this quantity. We analyse the time series of mean age of air in terms of its temporal and spatial variability for various latitude bands and link the results to observed and modelled atmospheric coupling.
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scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

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