scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

STP12 Abstracts
Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010
SCOSTEP Symposium 2010
The Multi-solar Cycles with Long Periods and Some Extrapolations
Tan Baolin
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of
Sciences
Based on analysis of the annual mean values of relative sunspot number during 1700 -- 2009,
there are 3 components of solar cycles are confirmed: the first one is the usually well-known
11-yr cycle which has the strongest power; the second strongest solar cycle has the period of
103 years which can be named as Grand Cycle (marked as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively
since 1700); the third component of solar cycle has a period of 51.5 years which is possibly
the relatively weak second harmonic of the Grand Cycle. By using the similarity assumption,
the author made an extrapolation of the forthcoming solar cycles after the cycle 23, and point
out that solar cycle 24 will be in the vale between G3 and G4, it will be a relative long and
weak solar active cycle, which may reach to its apex in about 2012-2014. As for the origin of
solar cycles, the author believes the dynamo theory may be the best one to explain the 11-yr
solar cycle, and speculates that the Grand Cycle is possibly resulted from the thermonuclear
instability of the solar core which modulated the global energy releasing processes.