scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

STP12 Abstracts
Berlin, 12 - 16 July 2010
SCOSTEP Symposium 2010
Solar extreme flare events: definition, origin, occurrence and their forecast.
Ishkov Vitaly
IZMIRAN
For the past of 8 solar cycles from the beginning of solar flares regular observation extreme
flare events, as a rule, were occurred on growth phases and, more often, cycle declining. The
exception was made by solar cycle 22 when both intervals of such events realization had on a
maximum phase. The first known instances of these flare events associated with “Space
Weather’s” effects occurred on August, 28 and Sept. 1, 1853. In cycle 17 possible similar
flare event occurred on the end of Feb. – beginning of March 1942, at ~ 4.8 year after
maximum. In cycle 18 – Nov., 1949 (~ 2.3 y.); in cycle 19 – November, 1960 (~ 2.7 y.) and
may be July, 1961 (~3.3 y.); in cycle 20 – August, 1972 (~3.7 y.); in cycle 21 – June, July,
December, 1982 (~3 y.) and the end of April, 1984 (~4.8 y.), in cycle 22 – March, August
1989 (~ max.), June 1991 (~2.5 y). In cycle 23 it is registered only four flares with a X-ray
class X≥10 (for example, for interval 1 – 15 June, 1991 only, its was 5): and three of them
were the main one during the concerned 19.10 – 04.11.2003 (~ 3.5 y.). First extremal flare
was observed in the beginning of April, 2001. Last extremal flare occurred at September 2005
(5.5 y after maximum of cycle 23). The question of definition solar extreme flare events and
their attitude to severe disturbed of space weather condition is discussed. The comparative
analysis of AR – generators powerful flare events is lead. The opportunity of forecasting
extreme flare events as result of interaction of new emerging magnetic fluxes and with
already existing magnetic structures is considered. The process of new magnetic flux
emergence, its evolution and its interaction with already existing magnetic flux is sufficiently
determined that allows us to predict as a period of flare energy release (PFER) so an
importance of most solar flare in the flare set of this period. The method of the large solar
flare event prediction has been put to successful test on Russian scientific satellites such as
GRANAT, GAMMA, CORONAS-I. Computer version this forecast techniques has been
developed on the base of real-time solar data. The forecasts are accessible via
http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/space/solar/forecast – Russian version and
http://titan.wdcb.ru/virbo_rus/viewlast.do?section=RBBulletin – English version.