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scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

scostep 2010 (stp12) - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik an der ...

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STP12 Abstracts<br />

Berlin, 12 - 16 July <strong>2010</strong><br />

SCOSTEP Symposium <strong>2010</strong><br />

Tr<strong>an</strong>sient climate simulations from the Maun<strong>der</strong> Minimum to present day including a<br />

detailed stratosphere<br />

Sp<strong>an</strong>gehl Thomas 1 , Cubasch Ulrich 1 , Raible Christoph C. 2 , Schim<strong>an</strong>ke Semjon 1 , Körper J<strong>an</strong>ina 1 ,<br />

Hofer Dominik 2<br />

1 <strong>Institut</strong> <strong>für</strong> Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, 2 Climate <strong>an</strong>d Environmental Physics, Physics<br />

<strong>Institut</strong>e, University of Bern; Oeschger Centre for Climate Ch<strong>an</strong>ge Research<br />

Tr<strong>an</strong>sient climate simulations are performed covering the period from 1630 to 2000. A<br />

vertically extended version of a coupled atmosphere-oce<strong>an</strong> general circulation model is used,<br />

including a detailed representation of the stratosphere. One simulation is driven by ch<strong>an</strong>ges in<br />

total solar irradi<strong>an</strong>ce due to solar activity as well as volc<strong>an</strong>ic eruptions <strong>an</strong>d ch<strong>an</strong>ges in<br />

greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. A second simulation additionally includes ch<strong>an</strong>ges in<br />

short-wave heating due to prescribed photochemical ch<strong>an</strong>ges in ozone. A third simulation<br />

includes higher resolved ch<strong>an</strong>ges in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum combined with<br />

lower ch<strong>an</strong>ges in TSI. The simulations are compared with reconstructions <strong>an</strong>d other<br />

simulations employing less resolved stratosphere. The inclusion of the higher resolved<br />

stratosphere does only play a mo<strong>der</strong>ate role for the simulated climate variability on the<br />

hemispheric scale. By contrast the use of lower TSI ch<strong>an</strong>ges combined with the higher<br />

resolved ch<strong>an</strong>ges in short wave fluxes results in a clear reduction of ch<strong>an</strong>ges in <strong>an</strong>nual NH<br />

me<strong>an</strong> near surface temperature. All three simulations reveal a shift of the North Atl<strong>an</strong>tic<br />

Oscillation toward a more positive phase from the Maun<strong>der</strong> Minimum to present day, mainly<br />

attributed to the <strong>an</strong>thropogenic increase in concentration of well-mixed GHG. The increase in<br />

GHG is related to a more disturbed stratospheric polar vortex resulting in <strong>an</strong> only mo<strong>der</strong>ate<br />

strengthening of tropospheric westerlies over Europe compared with the tropospheric version<br />

of the model. On multidecadal to centennial time scales the stratospheric solar forcing<br />

subst<strong>an</strong>tially contributes to the climate ch<strong>an</strong>ge signal in the stratosphere, <strong>an</strong>d there is clear<br />

evidence for <strong>an</strong> impact on the tropospheric circulation.

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