Coming to Terms with Reality. Evaluation of the Belgian Debt Relief ...

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Annexes
The 2004 survey report (p. 214) mentions that after declining from 1978 till 1992, infant
mortality did show a rising trend in later years. Child mortality was characterized by the
same evolution, but at slower rates. However the most recent figures show a decline of both
indicators. The 2004 report (p. 216) remarks that apart from progress in vaccinations, most
indicators concerning child health have remained stable or have declined. The improvement
in the data after 1998 may be symptoms of a change in the preceding trend; debt alleviation
may have contributed to this change, e.g. by stimulating vaccination programs.
Data on life expectancy at birth are taken from the World Development Indictors and presented
in table 11. The data show a steady decline of life expectancy at birth from 1990 till 2000. The
decline was stronger for women than for men. After 2000 life expectancy for men remained
more or less stable, whereas that for women continued to decline, be it at a decreasing rate. The
WDI data suggest a weak improvement of female life expectancy after 2002.
Table 11 Life expectancy at birth (years):
1990 1995 2000 2006
Female 56.3 54.5 51.6 50.7
Male 53.1 51.7 50.0 49.9
Total 54.6 53.0 50.8 50.3
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008.
It is not clear whether there is a link between debt alleviation and the small improvement
of life expectancy after 2000. Probably the recent figures were the result of developments
in the health sector. Some of these may have been linked to the conditions for reaching the
Completion Point under the HIPC Initiative, more specifically the conditions related to the
fight against AIDS/HIV (see subsections 3.1 and 3.2).
The evolution of education in a country can be measured by different indicators, measuring
inputs or outputs. As we are interested in indicators linked to poverty, we consider two
indicators: school participation of youngsters from age six to age fourteen, and the literacy
rate of the adult population (15 years and above). The data sources are again the household
surveys of 1996, 2001, 2007, implemented by the National Institute of Statistics.
Table 12 Literacy rates of adult population and net rate of school participation (%):
1996 2001 2007
School participation, (ages 6-14 years) 76 79 83
Literacy rate of population of 15 years and above 61 68 72
Source: NIS (2008)
Table 12 shows that school participation of the population between ages six and fourteen
has progressed steadily, from 76% in 1996 to 79% in 2001 and 83% in 2007. Over the
period 2001-2007 the increase of school participation was slightly stronger than over the
years 1996-2001, but the latter period was one year shorter. The school participation rate is
Coming to Terms with Reality
of course only one indicator of improvements in schooling. We should also consider
graduation rates and changes in quality. Although we have no figures for these two
variables, informed sources stated that drop-outs from primary schooling are a problem.
The data in table 12 also suggest a steady progress of the adult literacy rate. However
literacy seems to have increased faster over the period 1996-2001 than over the years
2001-2007. But we should keep in mind that the 1996 survey was smaller than the two
later surveys and this may have resulted in larger measurement errors. Moreover it can be
expected that the effects of improvements in schooling on adult literacy take time to
realize.
It is safe to conclude that in the years after 2001 both participation in schooling of age
classes 6-15 and adult literacy have improved, but that there has been no acceleration of
the rate of improvement. Thus there is no strong evidence that debt alleviation has had a
positive impact on already existing trends. It is of course possible that additional spending,
resulting from debt relief, will have long term effects on education.
6.3 Conclusions
We briefly summarize the findings of our analysis of possible effects of debt alleviation in
the framework of the HIPC Initiative and the MDRI on economic growth and on poverty
in Cameroon.
The available data do not show an acceleration of economic growth after 2001, rather the
opposite. If the debt alleviation and the expectation of substantial debt cancellation on
reaching the Completion Point had a positive effect on economic growth, it was probably
weak and it was swamped by other developments negatively impacting on growth.
A similar observation applies to the evolution of poverty as measured by the percentage of
people living in households with an average income below the poverty line. Between 2001
and 2007 this percentage remained more or less stable, whereas it had fallen between 1996
and 2001. The effect of debt alleviation and the expectation of debt cancellation on
poverty, if it was present, must have been weak and dominated by other developments.
In the sector of health, we observe in recent years a slight decrease of infant and child
mortality and a stabilization of life expectancy after a fall in previous years. These
favorable evolutions were possibly linked to policies promoted by the conditions set for
reaching the HIPC Completion Point.
In the field of education school attendance of youngsters and literacy of adults continue to
rise. The recent evolution is in line with earlier trends. The role of debt alleviation in this
evolution is not clear.
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