Beyond Feelings

122 PART TWO The Pitfalls
that when one thing occurs after another, it must be the result of the other.
The error in this thinking is the failure to realize that mere order and closeness
in time does not prove a cause-and-effect relationship. One event can
follow another by coincidence and thus be entirely unrelated to it.
The post hoc fallacy is likely the basis of most superstitions. Misfortune
befalls someone shortly after he walks under a ladder or breaks a mirror
or has a black cat cross his path, and he judges that event to be responsible
for the misfortune.
Sam is in the habit of arriving late to English class. Yesterday the professor
told him that the next time he was tardy, he would be refused admission.
Today Sam got a composition back with a grade of D. He reasons that
the professor gave him a low grade out of anger over his lateness. Sam has
committed the post hoc fallacy. Maybe the professor did lower the grade
for that reason, and maybe not. The paper may simply have been inferior.
Without additional evidence, Sam should withhold judgment.
There is nothing wrong with inquiring into cause-and-effect relationships.
In fact, the search for truth will often require that you do so. However,
you should be careful to avoid the post hoc error––withhold judgment until
you have evaluated all possible explanations, including coincidence.
Applications
1. Ebonics is an African American dialect that some educators wanted to make
a legitimate second language in California schools. One critic of the proposal wrote
the following: “In plain talk, ‘Ebonics’ is no more than African American gutter
slang. . . . If Ebonics has any credibility at all, it is as the dialect of the street—the
dialect of the pimp, the idiom of the gang-banger and the street thug, the jargon of
the school dropout, a form of pidgin English that reeks of African American failure.”
9 Does anything you read in this chapter apply to this quotation? Explain.
2. An author argued that the real meaning of Christmas, the birth of Christ,
has been “buried under an avalanche of toys, tinsel, artificial trees, and fruit
cakes”and that we ought to rediscover that lost meaning and message. One of
his points was this: “The more Christian, in the true sense of the word, America
becomes, the more morally sensitive it will be and the better for all of us—
Christians and non-Christians, atheists and agnostics alike.” Does anything you
read in this chapter apply to this quotation? Explain.
3. Charles, an atheist, is writing a paper on the issue of prayer in public
schools. He is well acquainted with the arguments advanced by those who oppose
such prayer but unfamiliar with the other side of the issue. Charles reasons that
because the paper he produces will be his own, it would be not only distasteful but
foolish for him to read material that he knows he disagrees with and will ultimately
argue against. So he confines his research to articles and books that oppose
all prayer in the schools. Do you agree or disagree with his reasoning? Explain.
4. Describe one or more situations in which you or someone you know
committed the error of the double standard. Explain the error in terms that
someone who did not read this chapter would understand.